Director of Strategy @restate_thinks, Founder https://xitter.cf/t.co/ONME0W2RCb, Columnist @CityAM. ex Treasury. Views my own
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Joe Hill retweeted
Such a blackpill that people have been complaining about this for years and neither Labour nor the Tories have done anything about it for all the years they’ve been in power. Surely this should be such a simple fix?
I thoroughly endorse this. I've gone on a journey around the legitimacy of public action a bit like the famous 'Midwit' meme.
I'd say that I started most of my policy thinking in 2012-2016 thinking that it was embarrassing and low skill when governments failed the 'Daily Mail' test or did things which the general public would be outraged by (the guy on the left).
I then went through a 'Midwit' phase 2017-2021 (roughly) where I started to think something like 'the world is complex, governments do complex things, not every part of that can be publicly legitimate - some bits have to be a kind of intra-elite deal on what best governance looks like' (the guy in the middle).
Following the pandemic (2022-present) I've now ended up where Ben is describing. It's clear that in doing the kind of policymaking I'm talking about above, states have voluntarily signed away their legitimacy and with that their capacity to decisively act, and are low grade. We're in a kind of 'developing economy' model of state capacity, where we can and should only pursue highly legitimate policies in a legitimate way, making the case on their merits rather than on technocracy, and not acting when that can't be done. Policy elites should have much more reverence for democracy and the will of the public, including their expressed and implicit objectives, because although departing from that at the margin is cheap, the cumulative effect of doing that over and over has taken us to a disastrous place (this is what the guy on the right thinks).
The main way to build up trust in institutions is to get institutions to work better.
The first and biggest step is to change the ethics of elites and public servants toward something more democratic (‘I oughtn’t to do stuff that the public would object to in reflective equilibrium, or that the public has expressly objected to’) and more tolerant/decoupling (‘All of the views of the bulk of my countrymen are worthy of respect and acceptable to hold, even if I personally disagree with them.’)
But there is a secondary factor. Trust is a two-way street. Just as you probably shouldn’t become a crack dealer on the basis of the justification that someone else will do it if you don’t, nor should you contribute to declining state capacity by undermining it.
I received an email this morning from a major newspaper: ‘How Labour is spending your tax money’. In the grand scheme of things it’s pretty trivial, but it’s an exemplar of slightly degrading low-trust developing world behaviour. Every little instance like this is like a tiny wave against rock.
Low standards, which are nearly universal across the rest of the world, beget bad outcomes. Demand results and you are more likely to get them.
Joe Hill retweeted
England has a set of successful education policies which are envied across the world
And now the government wants to move away from them
I’m no expert but this seems bad
substack.nomoremarking.com/p…
Joe Hill retweeted
Some full-throated free market policies here, which is very good to see.
Especially abolishing social value tests, which caps off a long-running campaign by myself and @jo3hill
Britain is broke. And to fix it, we need to start growing again.
That’s why Reform’s Economic Rescue Plan includes these 64 pro-growth measures I’d take if I were Chancellor:
𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗲𝗮
1. Approve Rosebank
2. Restart oil and gas licensing
3. Legalise onshore exploration
4. Abolish the Energy Profits Levy
5. Restore maximum economic extraction as the North Sea regulator's objective
𝗥𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻
6. Abolish the Emissions Trading Scheme
7. Halt the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
8. Repudiate AR7 contracts for difference and scrap AR8
9. Implement the Fingleton Review on nuclear in full
10. Automatically approve French and South Korean nuclear designs
𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀
11. Cut affordable housing requirements on brownfield sites
12. Permitted Development Right for brownfield housing
13. Repeal Biodiversity Net Gain
14. Exit the Aarhus Convention
15. Repeal and reform the Habitats Regulations, including Nutrient Neutrality
16. End the boiler ban
17. Legalise air conditioning to meet overheating rules
18. Remove mandatory EPC improvements
19. Revoke the Future Homes Standard
20. Repeal the Renters' Rights Act
𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲
21. Legislate approval for new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick
22. Auction airport landing slots
23. End 'target-consistent' carbon pricing in project evaluation
24. Ban carbon emissions considerations in planning applications
25. Fast-track all water reservoirs as nationally significant projects
26. Make Development Consent Orders a true one-stop shop
27. Restrict judicial review of ministerial planning decisions
28. Scrap Net Zero construction rules
29. Scrap the social value test in procurement
30. Lift launch limits at SaxaVord Spaceport
31. Open completed sections of East-West Rail
𝗝𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
32. Review regulatory barriers to AI adoption
33. Permit on-site gas generation for data centres and industry
𝗥𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀
34. Cut Employer NI back to 13.8%
35. Introduce a migrant worker levy
36. Repeal the Employment Rights Act
37. Clarify that workplace rights don't require mandatory training courses
38. Let experienced tradesmen work on government contracts without CSCS qualifications
𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆
39. Review bank capital requirements to boost lending
40. Rule out Net Zero in financial regulators' remits
41. Repeal climate-related financial disclosure rules
𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗼𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴
42. Scrap airport 'surface access strategies'
43. Abolish the electric vehicle mandates
44. Apply domestic GB hours to all UK HGV trips
45. Ban Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods
46. Back the M4 Relief Road
47. Move a new car's first MOT to four years
48. Abolish the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
𝗨𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘁 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗼𝗺𝘀
49. Replace GDPR with a New Zealand-style Privacy Act
50. Fully re-legalise Imperial units
51. Review all unchanged EU law
52. Automatically repeal remaining EU law in 5 years unless retained
𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀
53. Make quarterly Making Tax Digital reporting voluntary
54. Reduce legal obligations on SME Non-Executive Directors
55. Double permission-free event days from 28 to 56
56. Make pavement dining licences automatic and permanent
57. Let shops open until 10pm, except Sundays
58. Repeal board diversity and inclusion rules
59. Remove the Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandate
60. Abolish the packaging tax
61. Scrap BBC and Channel 4 priority on streaming platforms
62. Remove the Public Sector Equality Duty
63. Five-year sunset on all QUANGOs
64. Five-year sunset clause on all new regulations
And there are more to come!
Britain’s full potential is waiting to be unleashed 🚀
Whitehall is a weird place.
The civil service, a workforce of more than half a million people, aren’t allowed to tell you what they think about the biggest issues they work on. Impartiality means officials can’t take public positions on policy, and in practice it stretches to much of their own experience of work as well. The one official outlet, the Cabinet Office’s People Survey, asks the questions the Cabinet Office wants answered. I spent seven years in the Treasury and the Home Office and never once said publicly what I thought about how the place was run, and I feel bad for civil servants who are stuck in this system and don’t have an outlet.
So last year @restate_thinks and @CSWnews started the Alternative People Survey, to give civil servants a way to say how the system they work in is actually functioning. This year’s edition, published today with along with Public First, had 1,747 responses, 38% more than last year.
They have plenty to say!
“There is no culture of managing poor performance, so managers don’t do it.” “Internal promotions are non-existent. If you do well in your job and wish to obtain a higher grade you have to leave your post or go through the job evaluation process which could mean applying for your own job.” “Our voluntary exit scheme was terribly communicated and has resulted in top performers leaving. Our department is around 10% smaller but workloads are unchanged.” “I bought an iPhone charger cable via (a procurement service) for £18. The same item at Asda cost £2.”
These are not disgruntled outliers, these are mainstream views on Whitehall in Whitehall. 76% disagree with the statement that the civil service manages poor performance well. 66% don’t think internal promotion puts the right people in the job. Four times as many say voluntary exit schemes are losing high performers as poor ones. 60% think government buys badly from the private sector.
The appetite for change and reform is considerable! 82% now use AI in their work, up from 30% a year ago. 62% want pay rises based on performance, not the flat structure that’s available to most of the civil service. 52% feel encouraged to cut waste, up from 37%. 71% say processes get in the way of doing their job, rising to 79% among Grade 6s and the Senior Civil Service, so the people who run the machine are the ones most frustrated by it.
The PM has an ambitious agenda to rewire Whitehall, and the officials who will have to deliver that have just told him(anonymously) where to start: hire, promote, pay and remove people properly.
Full survey re-state.co.uk/publications/…
And Substack restate.substack.com/p/why-w…
Joe Hill retweeted
Today we published the results of our Alternative People Survey's 2026 edition, done in partnership with @CSWnews and Public First. Andrew Noore has written about what the survey tells us about Whitehall for our Substack 👇
restate.substack.com/p/why-w…
Joe Hill retweeted
We have already seen a defection from the traditional WASP elite idea that it was an elite duty to hold the population to high educational standards, for the betterment of the entirety of society. This has led to stupidity. AI will make it worse.
I predict that High IQ well off functional people will form communities to protect themselves from sloppification, while everyone degenerates into this numb, sterile mass of jellyfishness. A Snow Crash-like scenario.
And the "well intentioned" will clap like seals, supporting the lowering of standards, much like what we've seen for the last decades, which will affect the masses and not already privileged the most.
How is drinking until 10pm a ‘late’ opening? @hackneycouncil surely this is a mistake?
Fantastic bit of reading here from @chalmermagne. We have much bigger 'autonomy' considerations than whether or not we're using AI blog.cosmos-institute.org/p/…
GEO politics is going to be wild. I'm not convinced this is going to be net bad for the median user's engagement with politics though - what's the alternatives they were using previously, and were those bette?
The collision between new technologies (AI) and incumbent institutions (states) is probably the main axis of history, and I think we're underpricing how complex and unpredictable it will be.
Good lord. Jade Leung wrote this thesis last *decade*. Talk about calling everything.
"For example, I predict that AI firms will be increasingly constrained by the legislative environment, and more pressured to serve national defense and security interests. Some will be caught in the cross-hairs of public critique and researcher push back; some, however, will willingly sell AI technologies to the state with little friction. Further, I predict that the political influence of researchers will shrink, going against what some may view as a rise in researcher influence given recent events of employee backlash in AI firms. In turn, the inclination and capacity for the state to exert control over AI’s development and proliferation will likely grow, exercised via tools such as export controls."
ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea…
What a time to have a bachelors degree in theology.
This drip feed of government advice on stockpiling via guidance is not helpful and will make many people anxious. Feels like when they used the emergency alert unnecessarily this summer.
If he believes there are genuine risks the PM should go on TV and say so to the public.
Joe Hill retweeted
The Re:View is out! With next week’s Budget approaching, @alwalks96 looks at the growing role of ‘PuFins’ in the Government’s economic strategy and why they deserve closer scrutiny. Read more 👇
restate.substack.com/p/the-r…
I have changed my mind on this and now agree with Iain. International aid is a good thing, and we should generally be trying to spend money in the way that does the most good. But the erosion of the international order is bad, and countries pivoting to a realist approach to foreign affairs is now in everyone’s long-term interest.
Joe Hill retweeted
The logic for restricting domestic gas production never made sense.
Here’s 12 quick thoughts on why opening Jackdaw to drilling is the right call.
samdumitriu.com/p/the-logic-…
