Me to the TV commentators after @Kalshi odds have already gone 99-1: “Come on, it’s ok, you can really say it.”
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Running my papers repeatedly through refine.ink has on average added about 5-10 pages to the text and another 25 pages to technical “appendices”
I am always unsure how to think about things like this. Can AI write papers that cannot be critiqued? In my experiance, the paper that had 0 errors would be 350 pages of dense text chock full of a million caveats along with 500 robustness tables.
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This is honestly the only cogent analysis of the long end rise in yields I’ve read. It surely addresses the long run secular increase, with my own prior being probably more centered around uncertainty than his. I’m still pondering the “why now” tho.
Explaining the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield has become something of an economist’s parlor game. But it is a critically important one, as diagnosing what’s behind the increase says a lot about the economic fallout of higher rates, the appropriate conduct of monetary policy, and where rates are headed.
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So I’m in the Florida Keys, and there are many things we all can disagree about. Fed Policy. All of politics. But can we unite slowly just under one flag?
Stop fucking covering Prince.
You can’t do it.
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John Hund retweeted
Here's the somewhat troubling news in the jobs report:
The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but not for great reasons.
There's a big drop (almost -400k) in the labor force. The labor force participation rate also fell. It appears people stopped looking for work in March or perhaps more migrants left the workforce (or both).
This data can move around a lot month-to-month, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
Hey @malcolmwardlaw, the day we’ve been waiting for has finally come, the present IS the past, Claude for COBOL is here!
streetinsider.com/dr/news.ph…
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I’m honestly missing the Clydesdales and a dude driving a Ford truck right now. Just because you can AI doesn’t mean you should AI.
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My hot political take. I’ve spent a lot of time in Nordic countries and pissing them off is a horrible idea. They have long memories and a taste for vengeance covered by a sweet social network. Russia vs Finland is the most recent example, but we can go back to 1200
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@uber driven to the police substation by sheriffs, kidnapped by your driver Ahmed
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This is what happens when you are kidnapped and held up on the interstate by @Uber Rescued by sheriffs, but that criminal is still driving
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His name is Ahmed, @Uber if you are condoning criminal behavior, you are also liable.
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This is what happens when you chase a mistake with more mistakes. Someone needs to slap Sam Darnold up the head with the Book of Sunk Costs.
Darnold had Charbonnet to the flat for a TD on 1st down and instead took the sack. That was a TD drive but instead the 49ers defense makes the stand in 4th down and keep points off the board. I don’t agree with the decision to go for it there. Especially early in the game
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So Sam Darnold is at -7 points right now. Awful. #Seahawks
We’ll keep count, but at -10 we’re running him out of town.
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John Hund retweeted
YOU AND YOUR GUYS GOT BAILED OUT *LESS THAN THREE YEARS AGO* FOR SILICON VALLEY BANK
YOU WERE REWARDED FOR BEING SIMPLY TOO LAZY (CORRUPT??) TO USE INTRAFI
at least lots of finance types became soft social democrats after GFC, the pure delusion here is staggering
Replying to @bigblackjacobin
I’m not leaving
We’re going to fight & defeat you commie bastards, because your ideas are bad, you’re lazy & ineffective.
You may have taken NYC & California, but we’re going to solve healthcare, housing & education, while you grift off the government & write essays no one reads












