John Campopiano

Extremely tough forecast to put together, evokes memories of the 2001 " Storm of the Century " BUST. Looking back on 2001, a similar weather pattern is taking shape with this one. AN intense digging trough approaching the East coast loaded with upper air energy, at the same time Low pressure starts to take shape along the Southeast coast as primary Low now in the Plains will transfer its energy to a RAPIDLY intensifying storm along the Carolina coast, then complete BOMBOGENESIS just off the Delmarva coast where trough turns completely negative allowing for 500MB LOW ( tugs back on the intensifying storm) to slow down storm movement and explodes off the Delaware coast. In the crosshairs with the 2001 storm was DC-PHL-NYC-BOSTON ..forecasts were for 12-20 inches 48 hrs prior to storm impact time. Well we all know what happened with that storm, ..the storm did Explode but too far off the coast for the 12-20 that was forecast more like 1-3 inches, with Eastern L.I and the Capes getting the Blizzard. 25 years later the next challenge. Today we have more advanced computers to work with, so RIGHT NOW, I'm going with the Euro A.I MODEL AIFS ( Artificial intelligence forecasting system) GFS has been wild putting the East in line for an historic Blizzard..much like 2001 The AIFS has been consistent over last 3 runs , ALL AGREE intense Nor'easter that will track close enough to the coast to produce a Major East coast snowstorm, with heavy wet wind driven snow along the I-95 corridor & Blizzard conditions along the Jersey Shore ( some mixing before a complete changeover to snow Sunday night, on into & across L.I and into the Capes & Boston. Blizzard warnings for Jersey shore and NYC is verified by AIFS Blending the AIFS SNOW AMOUNTS I95 Corridor from DC-PHL-NYC-BOS 8-12 INCHES Jersey shore including all coastal areas 10-15 inches with the mixing, less with more mixing , higher end with limited mixing. Major coastal flooding , winds off shore could gust to hurricane force 50-60mph with gusts off shore 70+ BLIZZARD WARNINGS LONG ISLAND & CAPE COD .." Winter Hurricane blinding snow 12+ Major coastal flooding wind 50-70mph gusts WARNING..This is still a low confident forecast. I need to see next 3 runs and hopefully will have a much more confident forecast. ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MY FOLLOWERS WILL BE THE FIRST TO KNOW.

WEEKEND WINTER STORM UPDATE .. All models blending with track off the coast . COASTAL storm BOMBS out Off NC/VA coast late Saturday night with a rapid pressure drop to 963MB Sunday morning ( That equates to a CAT 3 Hurricane ) Fortunately it looks like the I95 Corridor From DC-PHL-NYC .. dodge the bullet , even coastal SNJ appears out of the woods . The Capes Of SE New England could see 12+ inches of snow as a full fledged blizzard is possible there with NE winds 30-40mph gusts to 50mph . Confidence is growing for a complete miss for Philly & NYC corridor , maybe some brushing along Jersey shore . Coastal Flooding , dangerous wind chills , Ocean freezing spray will be the main impacts from the coastal Bomb … will keep watching & Lock it in no later than Thursday evening RT

I might be in Palm Beach , but still have my forecast eye on Philly . A rapidly moving clipper marking the leading edge of the Polar Plunge , Upper level bundle of energy ( Vort Max) will dive South & East & produce a hit & run moderate snow storm . Not looking at warning criteria , however snow will accumulate rapidly between 2am-8am ( could start as a mix , arriving between 10pm-Midnight West to East ) Snow moves out no later than 9am . However Frigid air will pour in behind the clipper , with frigid winds , falling temps & wind chills . Eagles game you will see wind chills falling into the teens on gusty Northwest winds 20-30mph & higher gusts . Still can have flurries into the afternoon TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION A very quick 2-4 inches across the entire region . PLEASE RT

INTENSE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT ENTIRE REGION ESP COASTAL NEW JERSEY , DEL, NJ, Long Island .. .. starting late Saturday . Damaging winds , coastal flooding , street & highway flooding . BIGGEST IMPACT along the Jersey , Del ,& Long Island winds along the coast in excess of 50-60mph + Tropical storm force winds , over the open waters could see gusts close to hurricane force 72Mph .. BRUNT OF STORM should take place on Sunday .. still some uncertainty will keep you updated RT

PHILLIES / Chicago update TEMPS have dropped like a rock NOW 59 degrees rain moving out play now as more showers in 2-3 hrs RT @Phillies @PhilsTailgate

Severe line will come ripping through city by 5:35-45 .. hammering severe cell racing NE in Westchester Rt