@jonbrooks

Most housing headlines are wrong. I break down what’s actually happening in real time. $3.5B+ sold | 8,500+ units since 2020 60k+ subs on Substack Newsletter

 Jacksonville, FL
linktr.ee/thinkbigquestioneverything
Joined August 2015
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Pending home sales fell in all 50 of the largest U.S. metros. Second week in a row. Seattle: -28.8% San Diego: -25.4% Atlanta: -23.8% This isn't just Florida and Texas anymore.
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NAR's own chief economist said home sellers need to be realistic. He said it could require "price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers." When NAR is saying it out loud, believe it.
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September sales, prices and inventory all in one place movewithmomentum.com/news/fl…

Existing-Home Sales Rose 1.5% in September to 3.99 Million

The median existing-home price was $417,500 in September 2026, up 1.3 percent from a year earlier, and inventory stood at 1.60 million homes, or 4.8

movewithmomentum.com
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Housing isn't getting affordable anytime soon. Tampa could take 10 years or more. Who's buying until then?
unusual_whales
@unusual_whales5h
When will housing costs get back to normal? Possibly not until around 2031, per a new Redfin analysis. If mortgage rates stay near today’s 7.5% and home prices stop rising, it could take about six years for housing costs to return to 2018 levels, when the typical buyer spent 30% of their income on the monthly payment. But in about half of major metros, it could take 10 years or more, including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit and Tampa, where prices are rising faster than incomes.
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The rental vacancy rate hasn't been this high since 2017. At the end of 2021 it was 5.6%. Now it's 7.3%. More empty units means landlords lose pricing power. Renters finally have some room to negotiate.
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There are twice as many homes for sale as there were in September 2021. Sales are still stuck under a 4 million pace. August and September were the two slowest months of the year. Buyers have leverage again.
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Builders are bribing buyers to close. Pulte was giving 2.2% in incentives in 2022. Now it's 10.4%.
Lance Lambert
@NewsLambertOct 25
In Q3 2022, PulteGroup posted a sales incentives rate of 2.2%, which amounted to $11,000 in incentives on a $500K home sale In Q3 2026, PulteGroup's sales incentives rate came in at 10.4%, equating to about $52,000 in incentives on a $500K home sale Chart via @ResiClub_HQ
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January 2021, 36% of people said it was a bad time to buy a house. Today it's 85%. And 62% now blame high mortgage rates. Last month that was 47%.
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Rates are the whole story right now. Full October breakdown here movewithmomentum.com/news/fl…

Consumer Sentiment Holds at 48.0 (October 2026 Data)

Final October readings revised sentiment up from a preliminary 46.3.

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The American dream costs $5.32 million now. A college grad makes about $4.1 million in a whole career. Before taxes.
unusual_whales
@unusual_whales10h
The American dream now costs $5.32 million, per a new Investopedia analysis. But a full-time worker with a bachelor’s degree earns about $3.6 million over a career, from age 25 to 64. Add 20 years of average Social Security, and it’s still only about $4.1 million. That leaves the average college graduate roughly $1.2 million short, before paying a dollar in taxes.
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New housing executive order. Mortgage insurance cancellation pilot (new loans only) Permanent title-insurance waiver on refis A manufactured housing task force None of it touches the real problem. 7.32% rates on prices wages can't support. Headline grab.
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New home sales Tuesday is the one I'm watching. Builders are doing anything to move houses.
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Single-family housing starts just fell to 859,000. Permits: 845,000. Builders don't stop building when there's a shortage. They stop building when the buyer disappears.
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Where builders are still building around Jacksonville movewithmomentum.com/blog/ja…

Clay County has caught St. Johns as Northeast Florida's builder county

29% of St. Johns County single family closings were new construction in January to August 2026, and 28% in Clay. In 2018 the gap was 22 points.

movewithmomentum.com
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Rates "fell" this week. To 7.32%. A year ago: 6.19%. And mortgage applications still dropped 5.3%. Purchase apps are down 18% from last year. We're still pricing homes like it's 2021.
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Builders are sitting on 113,000 finished homes with no buyer. In Feb 2022 it was 31,000. Levels we haven't seen since 2009. That's not a housing shortage. That's inventory.
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How long new construction is really sitting. Full breakdown movewithmomentum.com/blog/st…

The slowest homes in Northeast Florida are new ones nobody ordered

Finished builder inventory in Northeast Florida takes a median 106 days to sell against 35 for a resale, and has been slower every year since 2001.

movewithmomentum.com
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Homes for sale: +7.7% vs last year New listings: -5.1% Sellers aren't flooding the market. Buyers just aren't showing up. Transactions stall. Listings stack. Then prices correct.
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Typical monthly mortgage payment: $2,796 Income needed to keep that at 30%: $111,840 Median household income: $87,460 That gap isn't a shortage of homes. It's a shortage of buyers who can afford them.
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The housing market right now is bizarre. Pending home sales = lowest ever recorded (NAR, since 2001) Home prices = still up 0.2% YoY (Redfin) Price is the last thing to move. Not the first.
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