@jremis

Né à Gijon, Asturias, Espagne. Astronome, lecteur et cinéphile.

 Saint Avold Moselle
Joined November 2009
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New paper out on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2607.20128 It explains a lightweight way to predict atmospheric re-entries using only public TLEs. My hope is that some of you will jump in and start making your own predictions, with this method or any other you prefer. More voices, more analysts, more independent checks. Give it a look. #SkyfallWatch

Predicting Atmospheric Re-entries Using Segmented M/A Calibration...

We present a reproducible method for predicting atmospheric re-entries using only publicly available Two-Line Elements (TLEs). The approach is based on a segmented calibration of the effective...

arxiv.org
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Update: obj. 45414 STARLINK-1309 decay prediction: October 29, 2026 UTC 23:10 ± 5h
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Obj. 57302 STARLINK-30233 decay prediction: October 28, 2026 UTC 21:01 ± 3h A significant deorbit maneuver within the last 24 hours has made this satellite's re-entry imminent. The effective area is estimated at approximately 20 m² and is assumed to remain constant until re-entry for the validity of this prediction.
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Update: obj. 100083 RASSVET-3 17 decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 11:01 ± 10h
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Obj. 63212 IOD1_STARTICAL decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 13:47 ± 10h
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Obj. 45414 STARLINK-1309 decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 03:33 ± 8h
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Update: obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 23:38 ± 2h
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Final TIP: 2026-10-28 UTC 00:35:00 ± 1min 23.1N 137.1W satflare.com/track.asp?q=447…
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Update: obj. 7003 AUREOLE 2 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 15:53 ± 1h
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Obj. 100083 RASSVET-3 17 decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 21:53 ± 15h
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Update: obj. 101147 HAWK 16 A, B & C ELECTRON R/B decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 21:27 ± 15h
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Update: obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 22:24 ± 3h
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Update: obj. 7003 AUREOLE 2 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 14:53 ± 1.7h
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Update: obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 28, 2026 UTC 01:13 ± 5h
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Update: obj. 7003 AUREOLE 2 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 14:51 ± 4h
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Update: obj. 48582 STARLINK-2236 decay notice: October 26, 2026 UTC 13:22 ± 1h A deorbit maneuver was performed this morning, significantly shortening the satellite's expected orbital lifetime. The object has most likely already re-entered the atmosphere.
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Final TIP: 2026-10-26 UTC 13:03:00 ± 1min 36.2S 55.1E satflare.com/track.asp?q=485…
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Update: obj. 48582 STARLINK-2236 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 05:15 ± 4h
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Obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 28, 2026 UTC 03:25 ± 9h
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Update: obj. 48562 STARLINK-2187 decay prediction: October 25, 2026 UTC 22:02 ± 1.5h
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Final TIP: 2026-10-25 UTC 21:03:00 ± 1min 27.7S 67.1E satflare.com/track.asp?q=485…
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Obj. 671022 STARLINK-36255 decay prediction: October 25, 2026 UTC 17:47 ± 1.4h A major deorbiting maneuver has increased the effective area from 5 m² to 18 m². This prediction assumes that the effective area will remain constant at 18 m² until re-entry.
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Final TIP: 2026-10-25 UTC 15:38:00 ± 1min 11.6S 140.9W satflare.com/track.asp?q=671…
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