Elvira Bary @ElviraBary’s channel is a must
And this is one of her best
My dream is to hear her in conversation with @VladVexler one day.
But if you see any, watch this one
War Comes Home to Russians: Why Moscow Is Panicking youtu.be/iBlGTDlCYrY?si=Tn35…
ⓘ jseths retweeted
National exit (sample: 79,668) -- Importance of issues to your vote:
GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION
Crucial/Major - 90%
Minor/No factor - 10%
COST OF LIVING
Crucial/Major - 89%
Minor/No factor - 11%
IRAN WAR
Crucial/Major - 74%
Minor/No factor - 26%
IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Crucial/Major - 73%
Minor/No factor - 27%
AI & DATA CENTERS
Crucial/Major - 56%
Minor/No factor - 44%
ⓘ jseths retweeted
Worth reading this alongside Vance post. He's right that Iran is important, but it's a very incomplete picture.
nitter.gq/TimAlberta/status/2118…
National exit (sample: 79,668) -- Importance of issues to your vote:
GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION
Crucial/Major - 90%
Minor/No factor - 10%
COST OF LIVING
Crucial/Major - 89%
Minor/No factor - 11%
IRAN WAR
Crucial/Major - 74%
Minor/No factor - 26%
IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Crucial/Major - 73%
Minor/No factor - 27%
AI & DATA CENTERS
Crucial/Major - 56%
Minor/No factor - 44%
ⓘ jseths retweeted
This is how you create leverage to end the war, not with lifting sanctions
ⓘ jseths retweeted
Absolutely incredible stuff: NJ Governor Mikie Sherrill just sent a letter to Jersey's port operators and businesses, threatening them with severe penalties if they unload illegally imported Russian oil.
"These actions are illegal, in part, because Vladimir Putin continues to engage in an illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. See United Nations Charter, Ch. 1, Art. 2, Par. 4. Further, the U.S. is currently engaged in hostilities with Iran, whose military is responsible for the killing of 23 servicemembers and wounding dozens of others. In purchasing oil from Russia, a known supplier and financial supporter of Iran, Donald Trump is providing funding for a country that is engaged in hostilities with America, up to and including killing American soldiers."
ⓘ jseths retweeted
This is why the Republican party got its ass kicked tonight.
Too many people who claim to be “America First” are busy pushing Kremlin talking points.
And, surprise surprise, Don Jr would like to come along for the ride — with his 1789 Capital friends. This will tend towards softening JD's distancing from Trump.
nitter.gq/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/…
It is astute to compare Vance to Henry Wallace, who in 1948 ran for president in a campaign that was literally co-authored by Josef Stalin — all in the name of "peace."
nitter.gq/BillKristol/status/211…
Another piece of the puzzle Vance is trying to align here.
nitter.gq/davetroy/status/205700…
It is of course true that Trump's Iran war was a major reason for R losses yesterday. Vance opposed that war and has been aligning with Putin's Carlson/MTG/Massie network for months.
He's trying to curry Putin's favor and also capitalize on the "antiwar" sentiment which spans both parties and is strongly supported by his tech libertarian backers like Thiel and Musk.
He has the charisma of tepid dishwater and likability just this side of leprosy. Still, this is what he's trying to prepare before Trump goes to the great big orange retirement home in the sky.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
ⓘ jseths retweeted
Your reminder that some people care very much about one murdered Ukrainian, but when Putin murders DOZENS of Ukrainians everyday, they are fine with a POTUS saying "I would do the same" and his envoy praising the genocidal war criminal as a "humanitarian".
ⓘ jseths retweeted
If you listen to this three times it ends with him asking Gerasimov where the ammunition is.
ⓘ jseths retweeted
This is really concerning behaviour.
Michigan's Democratic candidate for Senate Abdul El-Sayed confronted @jamesmatthewsky, telling him he wouldn't answer his questions as he wants "zero" votes in the UK.
Watch the heated exchange between the two.
Watch our live coverage of the US midterms➡️ trib.al/BikRSb2
ⓘ jseths retweeted
This and a blue wave.
ⓘ jseths retweeted
When oil burns for 5 nights running, recruit bonuses drop 80%, and generals get parade wool. You cannot win a war of attrition when refineries burn, allies cut oil transit, and soldiers beg for prison to survive their commanders.
The Full Report: 12/🧵
professorbonk.substack.com/p…
ⓘ jseths retweeted
Let the backtracking begin
We covered the Iran war to the point even our audience who are interested in geopolitics got tired of it.
But it was obvious from the start that it was extremely unlikely to go well and extremely likely to have huge political ramifications.
One of the biggest political unforced errors of my lifetime.
ⓘ jseths retweeted
BREAKING
Susan Collins has called Troy Jackson to concede.
A major win for Democrats.











































