My Preseason CBB Top 25
#1 Duke
#2 Florida
#3 Illinois
#4 UConn
#5 Arizona
#6 Texas
#7 Michigan State
#8 Houston
#9 Virginia
#10 Texas Tech
#11 Louisville
#12 Vanderbilt
#13 Miami
#14 Gonzaga
#15 Iowa State
#16 Kansas
#17 Arkansas
#18 St. John's
#19 Alabama
#20 Nebraska
#21 Michigan
#22 Tennessee
#23 Villanova
#24 Wisconsin
#25 Kentucky
Compared to AP Poll
Highest on: Villanova (+15)
Lowest on: Tennessee (-14)
𝘊𝘉𝘉 𝘍𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 #𝟣
𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝟵.𝟱 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝘀 (-𝟭𝟱𝟬 𝗖𝗭𝗥𝗦)
George Mason currently has the 5th best odds to win the A10 title at +1200, with a big gap down to Loyola Chicago at 6th (+2500). The market sees them as a clear top five team in the A10 which I agree with but this is essentially betting on them to finish Top 6 in the A10.
Saint Louis and VCU sit at the top of the A10 (both +250 odds or better), but third I view it as a toss up between Dayton and GMU. GMU has been picked 6th in the preseason poll two years in a row, but Tony Skinn and the Patriots have exceeded expectations both times. They shared the regular season title at 15-3, then went 11-7 and finished 4th last year while bringing in nine transfers and four freshmen. That team had just 1.0% minutes continuity, 337th in the country, and still finished 4th, so low continuity hasn’t stopped them from winning. In his first year only three guys came back and they still went 20-12. Skinn has won 70 games in three seasons, and they’ve been top-100 NET every year.
The question mark with this team is their shooting. They shot 33.3% from three (214th) and didn’t take many threes, ranking 270th in attempt rate with just 26% of their points coming from deep. They also play extremely slow, 346th in adjusted tempo. Even so, the offense was solid overall, ranking 107th in adjusted efficiency, with a 113th effective FG%, 79th 2P% and 45th free throw rate. The defense was also respectable, ranking 83rd in effective FG% allowed, 43rd in free throw rate allowed and 79th in defensive rebounding. The weak spot was their struggle to force turnovers, ranking 256th in turnover rate and 321st in steal rate.
They did lose two Second Team All-A10 players to the portal: Kory Mincy, who averaged 14.3 points and is now at South Carolina, and Riley Allenspach, who averaged 13.6 points and 6.1 rebounds and is now at Cincinnati. Brayden O’Connor is back and he was Preseason All-A10 First Team last year but went down with a foot injury in the season opener, missing the rest of the season, leaving them without their lead guard. The only full season he’s played at GMU was 2024-25, when he started all 35 games at point guard, led the team in assists and they went 15-3 in conference. Skinn also added talent through the portal with a class ranked 3rd in the A10. They brought in Baraka Okojie, who was First Team All-SoCon at Mercer and drew 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes, 9th best in the country, fitting how GMU already scores (22% of points come from FTs). Makhai Valentine from NIU adds more guard depth, and Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor started the last 10 Big East games for Butler and brings switchable defense. The frontcourt was upgraded too. Elijah Jones comes over from UTEP, where he averaged 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds, and Michael Marcus Jr. from App State, where he put up 7.8 points and 6.0 rebounds. The big name addition is James Nnaji, former 31st overall pick who has high boom potential especially in the A10.
The schedule is quite favorable. Of the 18 conference games, only four come against the top of the league: VCU twice, Saint Louis once, and Dayton once. Five more come against the middle of the pack: GW twice, plus Davidson, Fordham, and Duquesne once each. That leaves nine games against the rest of the league: Saint Joe’s twice, Rhode Island twice, St. Bonaventure twice, and then Richmond, La Salle, and Loyola Chicago, who all come to Fairfax. GMU went 3-3 last year against the four best teams in the league: Saint Louis, VCU, Dayton and Saint Joe’s.
As I mentioned earlier this is essentially betting on George Mason to finish top 6 in the conference.
The 6th place A10 record by season:
25-26: Duquesne 10-8
24-25: St. Louis / St. Joe’s 11-7
23-24: Duquesne 10-8
22-23: Duquesne / GW 10-8
21-22: Richmond 10-8
19-20: Davidson 10-8 (7th seed)
18-19: St. Louis / Duquesne 10-8
10-8 has been the 6th place record in six of the last seven seasons.














