jwill135

15 Key Stats to Know Before Betting on the Week 9 NFL Slate 🏈 1. Kenneth Walker gets a great matchup this week against a Jets defense that has struggled to defend the run without T’Vondre Sweat. The Jets are allowing 4.35 YPC with a 46.5% success rate when Sweat is off the field this year, compared to 3.54 YPC and a 37.4% success rate with him on. K9 is averaging a ridiculous 16.4% explosive run rate this year, along with a ridiculous 3.06 YACO/ATT. With the Chiefs sitting as 10-point favorites, K9 should have a solid bounce-back opportunity after two straight underwhelming performances. 2. After leading the Raiders backfield in touches last week, Mike Washington faces a brutal matchup this week against a strong 49ers rush defense. Raheem Morris’s defense ranks 2nd in EPA/rush (-0.17), 1st in YPC allowed (3.48), and 2nd in YAC/ATT allowed (2.16) this season. Additionally, the Niners should get Nick Bosa back this week, and with the addition of DeForest Buckner, their rush defense should remain elite. As far as rush concepts go, the 49ers are allowing just 2.91 YPC with a 42.2% success rate against zone concepts this season. That’s especially relevant here because 60% of Mike Washington’s rush attempts this season have come on zone concepts. With Ashton Jeanty likely reclaiming most of the backfield touches, I’m not expecting Washington to have much success in this matchup. The Raiders offense also ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season (32.4%). 3. Ja’Marr Chase gets a favorable matchup this week against a Falcons defense that has played a ton of Cover 1/3/4 (81.1% rate) this season. Against Cover 1/3/4 this year, Chase is averaging 2.09 YPRR with a 30.5% first-read share. He also owns a 0.3 TPRR when Burrow is pressured, and the Falcons have pressured quarterbacks on 42.8% of dropbacks this season. 4. Tyler Shough gets a sneaky matchup this week against a Browns defense that has been running a ton of Cover 1 (44.2% rate). Against Cover 1 this season, Shough is averaging a 56.4% success rate along with a passer rating of 121.1. With the Saints offense likely getting back Kelvin Banks Jr. and Jordyn Tyson, Shough should cook in this matchup. I’d also watch out for Devaughn Vele in this game. 5. With Jaylin Noel now out for the year, Nico Collins is set to have a bounce-back performance this week against a mediocre Chargers passing defense. Collins is averaging 3.31 YPRR with Noel off the field this year, compared to 1.27 YPRR with him on. From a coverage standpoint this year, the Chargers defense has primarily operated in Cover 3/4 at a 51.7% rate. Against Cover 3/4 this season, Collins is averaging a 26.2% first-read share along with a 26.5% air-yard share. The Chargers’ passing defense is also still without Derwin James. 6. In Week 8, Ladd McConkey ran a season-high 34 routes and logged a 90.1% snap share, indicating he’s back to being fully healthy. Heading into Week 9, McConkey gets to face a Texans defense that’s allowed 68 targets through the slot this season. Why is that significant? Ladd has run 47.9% of his routes from the slot this season. From a coverage standpoint over the past month, the Texans defense has been running Cover 1/Cover 3 at a 67% rate. Against 1-high looks this year, Ladd is averaging 2.83 YPRR with a 0.24 TPRR. Even with Jalen Pitre coming back from injury, Ladd should thrive in this matchup. (The Texans defense also ranks 22nd in EPA/pass allowed.) 7. Isaiah Likely is set to have a bounce-back performance this week against an Eagles defense that’s struggled to defend the slot this year. Vic Fangio’s defense has allowed 96 targets to the slot this season. (That’s important in this matchup, as Isaiah Likely has run 79.1% of his routes from the slot this season.) From a coverage standpoint over the past month, the Eagles defense has been reliant on Cover 1/3 (57.9% rate). Against 1-high looks this year, Likely is averaging 1.74 YPRR with a 0.26 TPRR. With the Eagles’ passing defense ranking 28th in EPA allowed (-0.21) and 29th in success rate allowed (38.4%), I like Likely to bounce back this week against an Eagles defense that struggles to defend the middle of the field. 8. With Lions cornerback D.J. Reed Jr. set to be out this week, Dolphins rookie WR Caleb Douglas is primed to have a monster performance against a Lions defense that’s struggled to defend the pass this season. Through 8 games this year, the Lions’ passing defense ranks 29th in EPA allowed (0.15) and 22nd in passing success rate allowed (44.6%). Additionally, when you dive into the coverage matchup, Douglas is averaging 2 YPRR with a 0.23 TPRR against 1-high this season. (The Lions have run 1-high at a 51.4% rate over the past month.) In a likely trailing game script, Douglas should lead all Dolphins WRs in receiving yards in this game. 9. Antonio Williams gets an underrated matchup this week against a Rams defense that’s being targeted in the slot at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL. (Williams ran 40.6% of his routes from the slot in Week 8.) From a coverage standpoint over the past month, the Rams defense has primarily been operating in Cover 1/4/6 at a 69.8% rate. Against Cover 1/4/6 this season, Williams is averaging 2.27 YPRR with a 0.23 TPRR. With Stefon Diggs likely getting the Trent McDuffie shadow in this game and with Myles Garrett back, Jayden Daniels is going to have to get the football out quickly in the middle of the field to guys like Chiggy and Antonio Williams. 10. Trey McBride owns just a 6.35 ADOT this season against Cover 3/6. Why is that significant in this matchup? The Seahawks defense is running Cover 3/6 at a 60.7% rate this season. Additionally, Mike Macdonald’s defense has been excellent at limiting explosives, as they rank 4th in EPA/pass allowed (-0.15) and 32nd in YPA allowed (5.48). With Gardner Minshew’s ADOT being 7.1 in Week 8, I don’t see Trey McBride catching a pass over 20 yards in this game. 11. Jonah Coleman gets a great matchup this week against a Panthers defense that’s struggled to defend the run this season. Through 7 games, the Panthers defense ranks 26th in EPA/rush (-0.01), 27th in rushing success rate allowed (43.6%), 28th in YPC allowed (4.83), and 31st in stuff rate (17%). Meanwhile, Jonah Coleman has been a super-efficient rusher this season, averaging a 21.7% explosive run rate and a 53.3% success rate. After playing 90% of the backfield snaps in the second half last week, Jonah Coleman is poised to have a great performance this week against a bad Panthers rush defense. 12. From a coverage standpoint this year, the Patriots defense has run man coverage on 32.5% of dropbacks. Matthew Golden leads all Packers pass catchers in YPRR (3.2) and TPRR (0.39) against man coverage this season. Additionally, Golden leads all Packers pass catchers in air-yard share % (53.6%) and first-read share % (45.7%) against man this year. 13. Javonte Williams gets an excellent matchup this week against a bad Colts rush defense. Through 8 weeks, Lou Anarumo’s rush defense ranks 31st in EPA allowed (0.00), 25th in rushing success rate allowed (43.5%), 30th in YPC allowed (4.88), and 30th in stuff rate (17.3%). As far as rush concepts go, the Colts defense is allowing 5.33 YPC with a 52.6% success rate against zone concepts this year. Why is that significant in this matchup? 61.9% of Javonte Williams’s rushes have come on zone concepts this season. In a likely favorable game script, the Cowboys offense should be able to get their run game going in this matchup. 14. Rome Odunze gets a brutal matchup this week, as he’s expected to get shadowed by Zyon McCollum. (McCollum is allowing just a -0.412 EPA when being targeted this year.) With Rome Odunze’s ADOT being 14.53 against Cover 3, I don’t expect him to do much in this matchup. Look for Caleb Williams to have to rely more on Luther Burden and Colston Loveland in this game. 15. Both Kaelon Black and Christian McCaffrey get a great rushing matchup this week against a Raiders defense that’s struggled to stop the run this season. Through 8 games, Rob Leonard’s defense ranks 30th in rushing success rate allowed (45%), 27th in EPA/rush allowed (-0.01), and 32nd in YPC allowed (5.11). Meanwhile, the 49ers’ rushing offense has been among the best in the NFL this season, ranking 4th in EPA/rush (0.04) and 1st in rushing success rate (51.8%). As far as rush concepts go, the Raiders defense is allowing 5.33 YPC with a 56.8% success rate against zone concepts this season. (Nearly 55% of the 49ers’ offensive rushes this season have come on inside or outside zone.) Also, with Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans out this week, I’m expecting Kyle Shanahan to heavily lean on his run game. I appreciate everyone for reading my Week 9 NFL notes ❤️