icarus is icarus for a reason (views my own, nothing I say, write or xeet (tweet) is financial advice, dyor)

Joined September 2017
In crypto, the liquid token market over the last 18-24 months grew increasingly allergic to a three things: 1. token overhang via unlocks 2. token overhang via inefficient emissions 3. siphoning of protocol value away from token holders As a result, we saw a stage of extreme token nihilism followed by a set of projects that identified they need to prove to the market that 1-3 are being solved first. Buybacks solve all three, with a single mechanism. So, in crypto, when a company starts doing buybacks, it is not because they are unable to innovate anymore, but rather, a simple signal to the market that they can now begin to trust the asset issued by the protocol (token). xitter.cf/kidponga/article/20113…
This is fundamentally flawed analysis The most junior analyst on Wall Street knows that when a company starts doing stock buybacks, it's because they can't innovate anymore By this logic, FTT was a good bid Why should I buy a token that can't attract new marginal buyers?
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ppl need to study smarter
Everyone who's looking at $AERO price post update thinks it was a failure. Everyone who's looking at global market share, holder revenue, efficiency of emissions, volume share growth on new chains etc thinks it was a success. dromos.kitchen/dashboards/ae… Given that a lot of features aren't even live yet (MEV recapture, Autopilot, emissions migrated and properly directed, aggregators picking it up etc), I think we're sitting at the inflection point of price diverging from fundamentals. And the fundamentals are only going to get better from here as the update goes fully live; we're currently seeing the absolute floor of the new model's performance. Think we're going to look back in a few weeks/months and realize that the market lazily decided that bad PA during a broader slump meant the update was a failure before letting the actual data come in. Adding more $AERO here. If the market is in for a worse slump, it'll probably bleed disproportionately due to increasingly losing this narrative battle, but I think if you're constructive (i.e not a 🏳️‍🌈🐻), it has great R:R here at $0.65-0.70.
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Does OpenRouter explicitly authorize your resale of model API access through your managed account, notwithstanding Section 7 of their ToS?
Replying to @sk1337le @kidponga
we're a downstream provider of openrouter inference, like any other ai saas such as higgsfield. what trades on the book is CREDIT, a token worth $1 of usage on orbio, and don't resell keys.
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my brother in christ, Pump dot fun is printing millions of dollars a day, buying back their own token, and still, many on the timeline are struggling to understand why it trades at such a low multiple to earnings so if someone were to reverse engineer pump fun and OS it, it would be worth 2-3x whatever it can make in fees, sustained over 12 months, at least do the math, zero
If someone were to reverse engineer pumpfun and open source it. How much would that be worth?
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$PURR As of September 30, 2026 - 14,430,697 shares beneficially owned. - 5.2% of the common-stock class. - Sole voting power over 14,069,284 shares. Previously, as of June 30, 2026 - 9,880,560 shares beneficially owned. - 7.3% of the class. BlackRock’s reported share count increased by 4,550,137 shares, approximately +46% sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar…
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getting there
no nice things until we see a reset here
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Once again, hyperliquid:native is super attractive even from a deep value perspective, especially at a time where I see a lot of uncertainty with regards to the "return profile" hyperliquid:native still has to offer. With roughly two cycles of AQAv2 complete, netting Hyperliquid ~$30M in revenue, growing crypto volumes boosting daily fees to ~$2M/day, and ~$300M in forward unlocks sold OTC (all of which have been re-staked), trailing ARR is now ~$1B (on a 90D trailing basis).
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From Dec last year
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no nice things until we see a reset here
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eg., nudge a user about to buy nvidia calls with something like “why don't we build you a basket of 10 smaller ai stocks that could 5x if your thesis plays out?” AI is better at identifying an investor's intent, at a level better than the investor themselves. While the example below supports an investor from getting blown out on a bad options trade, you can see a world where it also helps someone construct an options trade as well. AI will eventually force the investor to be 100x more clear about the direction/thesis/outcomes they see in the future vs a lazy investment idea, and augments it with all the information they could need to execute.
the best financial products will take users looking to trade and convert them into investors… that’s the only way to fight churn long term and be net positive to mkts there’s cool things you can do with ai now - that serve the user’s risk appetite while saving them from getting blown out eg., nudge a user about to buy nvidia calls with something like “why don't we build you a basket of 10 smaller ai stocks that could 5x if your thesis plays out?”
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things you see near local lows
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I dumped it all. The Maelstrom directional book, took profits on $ETH, $ENA, $UNI and other shitcoins. I think we gotta go down to go up. It looks a bit dicey out there in macro and geopolitical land. Going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the all clear signal … Brrrrr
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this is actually wild. everyone and their mother in India was disappointed at the amount of exposure they could get to the JIO IPO get your exposure, onchain
The Pre-IPO Perpetual (IPOP) Market for JIO is now live.
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tight spreads on ETH-USDC on Ethereum mainnet via @metricxyz I think providing some liquidity into a few pools could be +EV. I think back to the days where HumidFi/Tempest were running the show on Solana and everyone and their mother wished they could get exposure. ~$11M in TVL, tokenized stonk pools across RH, and BSC, this feels like a good spot to get those sweet sweet LP yields app.metric.xyz/r/pole
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