“Clever but dangerous…no real combat experience”

Joined August 2010
This is huge— @Cassi_on_X came 2nd overall and 1st on "Dataset" questions on @Research_FRI Forecastbench! 🥈📈 Only @elonmusk's @xai @grok outperformed us overall. What this means: 🧵
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Keith Dear retweeted
SITUATION EXPLAINED: US banks are finding AI agents inside customer accounts, and some appear to be acting without the user's instructions. • The banks include Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo, and some don't even know agents are getting in • Many are people's own agents, like Meta's Muse, logging in with the user's password, which most banks don't allow • Banks often can't tell a person from a bot, and some agents have even called customer service lines • Banks are blocking agents, rewriting their terms, and moving to read-only access that shows balances but can't move money • Schwab says it stops outside agents trying to move client money "in the tens and twenties" every week • Many agents can tap through your phone the way you do, banking app included, and your phone already holds most of your life @theojaffee: "It seems like there's definitely a problem with people abusing AI agents before they are reliable enough, before they are aligned enough, and before they are capable enough to take actions on behalf of the user, kinda like someone with power of attorney would, without messing things up."
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Keith Dear retweeted
If you want an analogy, imagine you're a beetle entomologist in some tropical jungle. Drop a quadrat square anywhere you want, discover 20 new species an hour. The attack surface is hyperbolically enormous. It's a Cambrian explosion of entirely new kinds of exploit.
Just going to preregister here that I believe the computer security overhang is not a few dozen bugs that get patched and then we're good, there are 100,000s of vulns that are extremely discoverable with infinite free tokens and we're probably going to have to move away from systems that presuppose that perfection is possible.
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OpenAI says the PHP security flaw (found with GPT-5.6 Sol) is the tip of the iceberg, and they have several more discoveries to announce.
OpenAI models helped researchers—operating as part of our Patch the Planet initiative—discover critical security flaws in PHP, an open-source programming language used to run an estimated 70% of websites. Over the past two months, we led a coalition of maintainers, researchers, and security providers to prepare fixes and protections ahead of disclosure. This duration was necessary because the fix was quite intricate and required a major change to the PHP engine. Every site using PHP can now safely upgrade their version to stay secure, in addition to applying mitigations from various security vendors. Due to the severity of these flaws and PHP’s widespread use, we consider this bug to be one of the most impactful vulnerabilities in recent memory. It also marks a new phase, where AI can find security bugs with internet-scale impact. This is an example of the Defender’s Window in action: to our knowledge, frontier AI was able to find this vulnerability ahead of attackers, giving defenders time to prepare. openai.com/index/coordinated…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
‪OpenAI may claim a role in the coordinated response and patching process. But the initial discovery and exploit development, however, occurred several months earlier by an independent researcher.‬ ‪x.com/lcfr_hax/statu…‬
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Keith Dear retweeted
Forget air conditioners and riots, Europe is truly fucked. If the UK can't have a power grid capable of running an AI datacenter until the mid-2030s, it will have no on-prem datacenters for any of the AI tasks. Remember when the EU demanded all data storage to be brought to its borders? It won't be able to demand AI compute be brought there, even though AI compute is a way more important thing than google search history. A future US President could cut of EU AI access in a dispute, leaving EU businesses and governments adrift. Governments like Saudi Arabia have been investing heavily into ensuring that they have local AI datacenters, and Europe can't even power one. Meanwhile the UK government tried to pass laws saying they would limit AI development, like a toddler watching their mom cook and putting a plastic hot dog in their fake microwave.
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Keith Dear retweeted
The NCSC is encouraging UK organisations to prepare for immediate updating of systems using PHP. Where immediate remediation is not feasible, organisations should consider taking the system offline until it can be fully mitigated. For more⬇️ ncsc.gov.uk/news/critical-se…
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Keith Dear retweeted
I recently spent some time with former colleagues from academia. All of them brilliant, peak human capital. Almost all of them fundamentally unable to plug into the economy, inoculated against productivity by a youth spent experimenting in laboratories instead of building wealth for society. Dealing with real people in the real world. 90% of them have left academia in the last 10-15 years, and 90% of those are functionally unemployed. Grad school does a lousy job of training scientists to be professors (since most of them don't get the good postdoc or tenure track position) and an even worse job of preparing people for real life. We complain that our societal infrastructure is collapsing, our state capacity is low, our incumbent industries are faltering. Where are the next generation of leaders that can push us forward? A huge fraction of them were conveyor-belted into academia by schooling systems that have no mechanism to channel ambition and 99+%ile competence, and our universities are mostly hedge funds with glorified psych wards/academic departments on the side, running an insane pyramid scheme that exists only to prove, over and over again, the Shirky Principle: Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution. We literally poured trillions of dollars into state-funded research and effectively neutered our elite civilian technical leadership development programs. I recently asked a few academic friends if they were finding AI useful in accelerating their programs of research. You know, to solve the Big Problem their entire field exists to solve? Some were. But most were complaining about how it created pedagogical issues, explaining how their department decided to ban the use of AI, or how it took 18 months to approve an enterprise account, or how they tried Gemini 2 on a puzzle a year ago and it wasn't very helpful, or repeating nonsense about datacenters and water consumption, or supposed IP theft by model companies, as though that has any bearing on their ability to, eg, accelerate a cure for cancer. Elon sometimes calls AI a supersonic tsunami - a huge wave you don't see coming. I see it coming. But even the people who you'd think have been waiting for this their entire careers are steadfastly looking in the other direction.
During a business trip I heard about multiple companies who are struggling to hire people. Jobs available but they can't fill them. There is a huge disconnect in the job market somewhere- the systems responsible for efficient and effective recruitment have completely failed.
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The Tricolore textbooks did not prepare us for all this shit going off in France. The most exciting thing that ever happened in La Rochelle was Annette falling off her bike or Philippe enjoying a particularly tense game of le badminton down l'auberge de jeunesse.
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Keith Dear retweeted
what I've learned from this post is that almost no one is AGI-pilled and that they don't take seriously the possibility of tens to hundreds of millions of AIs working 24/7 at 10–100x human speed
Surveyed Anthropic staff's answers imply 17.1% GDP growth in 2030
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Keith Dear retweeted
The Tesla Roadster event was so epic that it needed it's own music video Introducing "FLYING CARS" featuring Optimus 🔥
🤖 Made with AI
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The Wall Street Journal is again telling our political elites to wake up to what has gone wrong in this country. So was Jensen Huang yesterday. Americans I speak to are more pained than our own ministers about seeing the likes of Oxford defiled. They wish it to still be the city of dreaming spires they imagine. It should not be impossible to build a nice-looking bridge. It should not cost more to build this pitiful piece of infrastructure than it cost to build the Titanic. We must wake up wsj.com/world/uk/a-ludicrous…
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Keith Dear retweeted
Slow news day in tech huh guys? Did anything happen with like, AI or tesla or anything?
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Keith Dear retweeted
‘What it calls a flying car’ The UK attitude which drives so many entrepreneurs abroad. This isn’t just the BBC, it’s ingrained in every institution and into the public psyche. Tall poppy syndrome has likely destroyed trillions in value for the British economy. Pathetic.
Elon Musk's electric car manufacturer, Tesla, has unveiled what it calls a 'flying car'. On #BBCBreakfast Charlie & Naga looked at images of the two-seater Roadster - which has been developed in collaboration with the rocket company, Space X bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c8nq32…
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Watching Musk’s cars and rockets reminds me just how narrow our horizons in Britain and Europe have become. I don’t agree with everything he says or does, but I do find his level ambition genuinely inspiring. Growing up in the 1990s and 2000s, I always assumed we were maintaining the industrial and technological capacity to defend our prosperity and freedom. Not once did I ever question it. Never. But Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine completely shattered all of that for me. They exposed just how fragile we had become. And in terms of energy and industrial capacity, we have actually gone backwards since 2022. People often laugh at Musk, but he never fails to remind me how much more is possible when we have the ambition and confidence to innovate and build. And with China and Russia challenging the West, rediscovering that ambition matters more than ever…
Real life, baby
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The head of the army says the UK’s political leaders are about to start a “frank conversation” with the public about the need to prepare for war. General Sir Roly Walker said every citizen will be asked to make sacrifices and to play their part in the defence of the nation. news.sky.com/story/army-chie…
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Keith Dear retweeted
🚨HOLY SHIT CERN and Mistral just announced plans to train an AI on BILLIONS of simulated proton collisions. Not books. Not conversations. The fundamental interactions of matter itself. The goal is to identify particles and detect unexpected signals in the data. We're entering an era where AI could reveal patterns in the universe that humans have never recognized. What happens when it discovers something we don't even have a theory for?
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Keith Dear retweeted
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
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Keith Dear retweeted
when nick told me that he had some interp breakthroughs, he was uh, underselling it. i think this may be remembered as a major moment in scientific history. news so good even eliezer will have to lower his pdoom. we can start making alignment into a 'normal science'
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
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Keith Dear retweeted
SITUATION DETECTED: Japan will invest up to $21 billion in two new semiconductor fabs in Malta, New York, to be operated by GlobalFoundries and jointly owned by the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. Department of Commerce is also taking a 4% stake in GlobalFoundries.
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"The first step is to expand Eutelsat OneWeb across Ukrainian command posts, logistics hubs, air-defence units and other ground networks. OneWeb is already operating in Ukraine and provides a real European-based LEO alternative to Starlink. It is not a perfect replacement, but that is precisely the point: Ukraine should not replace one dependency with another."
Ukraine does not need another Starlink monopoly. It needs a communications architecture that keeps working even if one company, one network or one government cuts access. Europe can start building that now. The first step is to expand Eutelsat OneWeb across Ukrainian command posts, logistics hubs, air-defence units and other ground networks. OneWeb is already operating in Ukraine and provides a real European-based LEO alternative to Starlink. It is not a perfect replacement, but that is precisely the point: Ukraine should not replace one dependency with another. Second, Europe should launch an emergency programme for lightweight satellite terminals designed specifically for Ukrainian UAVs. Eutelsat already supports communications for uncrewed aircraft, but there is no publicly documented OneWeb terminal today that can simply be bolted onto Ukraine’s fast battlefield drones and replace Starlink. That capability must be developed, adapted and manufactured at scale. Third, use SES O3b mPOWER and other satellite systems as high-capacity backup for command-and-control, intelligence, surveillance and major military nodes. The network should be deliberately multi-orbit and multi-provider. Fourth, complete Ukraine’s integration into EU GOVSATCOM. From 2027, the EU plans to add qualified commercial satellite capacity to the system, creating the possibility of combining European government and commercial networks under a more resilient framework. The technical objective should be simple: Ukrainian equipment must be able to move traffic between different available networks instead of being locked to a single provider. Starlink can remain part of the system. So can OneWeb, SES, Viasat and national military satellites. But none of them should be indispensable. The goal is to build a network in which losing Musk no longer matters. Europe does not need to wait for IRIS² to begin. Most of the underlying satellite capacity already exists. What is missing is procurement, terminal development, integration and political urgency.
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