Kuzzo

With Banchero & Suggs still OUT, I’d expect PHX to prioritize two things tonight: keeping Wagner out of the paint… AND staying attached to Bane coming off screens Now, I particularly like how AB’s perimeter shot profile matches up against the Suns. 14 of his 19 three pt attempts have come from ATB, exactly where Phoenix has shown defensive weaknesses So far this season, opponents are getting up 27.8 ATB threes per game against PHX, 15th most in the league. What stands out is how often they’re converting those looks: 11.7 ATB makes per game (2nd most), on a league high: 42% from that area I’d lean toward Bridges using his size on Wagner & Brooks chasing Bane through screens… which would leave Booker or Green on AB When Wagner turns the corner off a WCJ screen, AB’s defender could be forced to collapse into the paint, while Bane’s defender stays attached That gives Wagner a natural kickout to AB on the wing, right where he’s already taking most of his threes Through six games, Phoenix is surrendering 33.7 PPG on spot ups, 4th most in the NBA and 23% above the league median. That aligns extremely well with AB’s offensive role, as SU’s account for 39.7% of his play types And this isn't just a favorable matchup on paper. AB’s consistently generated perimeter volume against similarly ranked spot up defenses: In AB’s last seven games with 25+ mins in those spots, AB has gone 1/5, 5/7, 4/6, 2/5, 4/8, 2/5 & 4/6 from deep (3.14 threes made avg per game)

Miami is currently allowing 42.1 three point attempts per game. What I like for Garland is where those shots are coming from. The Heat give up 31.3 ATB threes per game, which is the 2nd most in the NBA, 13% above league median Garland has taken 49 threes on 115 total FGA this season. Of those 49 threes, 44 have come from above the break. That’s nearly 90% of his threes and 38% of all his shots coming from the exact area Miami’s giving up the MOST volume That perimeter volume has made the difference for this line. Garland has averaged 16.4 FGA in 33 minutes, and in the four games where he got up at least 8 threes, he finished with 19, 19, 17 & 22 total attempts Now, on top of a great 3pt matchup, I also like the looks Garland can get inside the arc. Miami ranks 5th in points allowed at the rim, but 26th in the paint outside the restricted area and 25th from mid range Garland has taken 33 shots in that short paint area and another 13 from mid range. That’s 46 of his 66 two point attempts (nearly 70%) coming from those two spots… AKA, another defensive weakness that Garland can potentially exploit Miami also plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the league. So, i’d expect Garland to get a several chances to pull up above the break before Bam and the rest of the defense get set He’s already averaging around 9.4 2pt attempts per game, so the favorable three point matchup is really just the cherry on top here

So far this season, the Nuggets are allowing 39.7 opponent 3PA per game, the 7th MOST in the league, along with 14.0 made threes per game BUT… what I like most here isn't just the volume Denver allows, but WHERE those attempts are coming from. The Nuggets have surrendered an average of 12.5 corner 3PA per game to opposing offenses which is 26% above the league median Walter has attempted 44 threes/60 total FGA this season, meaning 73.3% of his shot volume comes from beyond the arc. Of his 43 location tracked shot attempts, 14 have come from the corners (32.6%), with the remaining 29 coming from above the break Meaning nearly a third of Walter’s FG attempts come from the EXACT area where Denver has been allowing elevated volume to opponents AND, we’ve also already seen opposing wings generate elevated 3PA volume against them: Recent/Similar SF’s against the Nuggets ✅ Deni Avdija: 5.5 line > 9.0 3PA (35 min) ✅ Saddiq Bey: 4.5 line > 6.0 3PA (26 min) ✅ Dillon Brooks 5.5 line > 6.0 3PA (21 min) ✅ Jalen Williams 2.5 line > 6.0 3PA (33 min) ✅ Yaxel Lendeborg: 4.5 line > 9.0 3PA (31 min) Denver ranks 24th in single coverage and allows 33.5 SU points per game, which is 21% above the league median. I’d expect Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett to draw help when they get downhill If Walter’s defender steps in from the weak side, that gives Toronto a direct kickout to the corner Notably… HC Rajakovic specifically mentioned Walter’s three point shooting when explaining his fit with the starters: “I think he fits in with our starters really well because he provides a great outlet, great three point shooting” With Kawhi still out, Walter is expected to stay in the starting five. His 3PA since moving into that role have been 8, 7, 5, 9 and 3, AVG 6.4 per game

Jalen Johnson suffered a left ankle sprain late in Q3 against New Orleans… and never returned for the fourth quarter. He is currently Q for tonight, while Jock Landale is already ruled OUT as well Johnson leads Atlanta with 9.0 RPG, nearly 8 of which come defensively. And with Landale also sidelined > Okongwu is positioned to take on a MUCH larger share of ATL’s dreb opportunities Notably, Okongwu has faced Indiana three times without Johnson, recording 8, 9 & 10 drebs. Last season, with JJ sidelined & Okongwu playing 25+ minutes, he cleared this o4.5 line in > 6/8 games, averaging 7.25 drebs + 8.88 rebounds / per game The Pacers have been allowing approximately 13.2 total rebounds to opposing centers, which includes: 8.7 defensive rebounds per game avg All four centers to face this depleted Indiana lineup have cleared 4.5+ drebs (8.00 average) - Sharpe: 9 drebs (26 min) - Embiid: 9 drebs (39 min) - Turner: 9 drebs (28 mins) - Adebayo: 5 drebs (33 min) With Siakam resting, Nembhard AND Nesmith OUT, Zubac still sidelined and Nance doubtful, IND is missing a substantial amount of scoring, playmaking and size > I’d expect this makeshift lineup to have a TOUGH time in creating quality looks, which should create additional defensive rebounding opportunities for Okongwu tonight A blowout is certainly possible, but even in ATL’s 20 point win against IND last season > Okongwu still grabbed 7 defensive rebs in just 25 minutes, comfortably clearing 5 despite a short workload

I like the matchup here for Reaves, specifically with the amount of perimeter volume Miami has been allowing early this season Through six games, the Heat are allowing 42.0 opponent 3PA per game, the 2nd MOST in the NBA, along with 17 made 3s allowed per game Looking deeper into the defensive funnels: - 30.5 ATB 3PA allowed (+11% vs league median) - 12.8 C&S FGM allowed (+22% vs league median) - Only 38.5% of opposing FGA within 10FT (-10% vs league median) And that aligns well with AR’s shooting profile, particularly because he does NOT need to rely exclusively on the C&S to build his 3pt volume Last season, AR averaged 3.4 pull up 3PA and 2.9 catch and shoot 3PA, with 5.5 of his total attempts coming from above the break. Which means, he has multiple avenues to get shots up depending on: HOW Miami chooses to defend So if Miami prioritizes containing Luka's drives, Reaves becomes a potential beneficiary of the kickouts and defensive rotations. And when AR is initiating himself, he has the ability to pull up off screens rather than forcing his way through Miami's interior defenders Reaves attempted 14 threes against Miami last season in 38 minutes, even with Luka active and taking 11 threes himself. Notably, Bron was OUT that matchup Obviously, I'm not projecting another 14 attempt game & MIA personnel has changed significantly But it's a useful example of how AR can generate substantial perimeter volume alongside of Luka when the offensive opportunities are there

This will be Richardson’s FIRST game with Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black ALL OUT, leaving the Magic extremely shorthanded in their backcourt Richardson has already moved into the starting lineup with Suggs sidelined, but with Black now joining him on the injury report, we're looking at an entirely different opportunity for the young guard What's especially promising is that he’s already shown the willingness to SHOOT… even without consistent minutes Look at some of his opportunities this season: - 8 FGA in just 14 minutes vs TOR - 7 FGA in 17 minutes vs NYK - 8 FGA in 26 minutes vs BOS Richardson is averaging approximately 11 FGA per 36 minutes, meaning a 30 minute workload alone translates to roughly 9 attempts, without assuming a significant increase in his usage Now looking into Washington's defensive profile, the Wizards are allowing > 32 above the break 3PA per game (+16% vs league median) AND, that aligns with part of Richardson's shot profile, as approximately > 42% of his FGA have come from three, while another 53% in the paint This is important since Richardson has multiple ways to generate attempts. He doesn't need to rely exclusively on perimeter looks / OR create everything himself I'd expect Washington to prioritize Franz Wagner & Desmond Bane with their stronger perimeter defenders, potentially leaving Richardson with more favorable matchups and opportunities to attack With so much defensive attention focused on Orlando's primary scorers, Richardson could benefit from additional driving lanes, kickouts, and open looks