fmr Apollo PE, Viking HF (junior). Now holdco incubating rollups + goats cheese. Interests: koch belichick wynand buffett thorndike johnnie cochran JDR gohanSS2

Joined June 2024
Very belated HNY from Tucker’s Farm Corp! Big year for the farm - added 3 Nubian goats to herd (15% CAGR 💪), deployed ~$80m equity across 4 subsidiaries (a lot for us!), and welcomed baby Teddy!1 (I look like a doofus in this photo but these get reach) [reposting here from LI, for my additional 323 x views💪] Our 26 big initiatives for 2026: 1) Rollup Newsletter: ‘rollups and goats and stuff’. Cliché move for an aspiring LinkedIn influencer but makes too much sense not to do (+ we lost any online dignity many posts to go - generally I have no qualms w egg on our face if it helps the biz!) So please 🙏 sign up in comments 2) Bermuda College 4hr lecture on overlooked 10,000x MOIC compounder (Buffett/Berkshire-esque): super in-depth case study on the greatest rollup/compounder that no one ever talks abt (shocking). Link in comments to find out! 2 3) Intentionality and time: been thinking on how I spend my time (for the 2/3rds of my life I’m not looking for my AirPods) and loved this Jim Collins bit on lifestyle design and using the Simplex Method to empirically optimize for his ‘perfect Tuesday’ (a hifalutin way of saying rate every day and find good/bad-day commonalities). I’m ~6 months in and the below are takeaways I expect (hope) to address in ‘26: Bad Days Have: >Rejection. I strongly believe that professional success is directly proportional to rejection. All else equal, show me a deal guy who gets rejected a lot (takes swings), and I’ll show you a money maker (a related take - I used to be puzzled by super smart/honest/hard-working folks’ inability to find professional fulfillment until I realized they often forgo rejection/risk/indignity, and often subconsciously!) But man it still hurts. And in our biz rejection is constant - hunting deals and talent (esp from a goat farm in Bermuda 😬) is not a permissionless endeavor! I have mechanisms that obscure the daily conveyer belt of indignity that rolls into the farm, but it’s not full proof. And if too many ‘no’s’ slip through, it gets to me. >Comparison. Probably oversharing here but man it’s interesting how much another rollup’s success needles me if I feel it’s unearned/lucky (and of course I think most professional success is luck, except ours! 😉). Good Days Have: >4hrs of deep work. Not including calls and calls and emails and LP stuff and calls, but things that give me energy like optimizing the farm’s deal octopus, thinking through assets etc. This meaningfully reduces anxiety. >1hr of hard(ish) exercise. Run 3 miles + 10 min weights (To-Failure method) + jump in ocean. Also reduces anxiety. (big realization is half of good-day-engineering is some form of anxiety reduction through toil) >2hrs w kids/wife/friends. Esp. if a productive day (killed anxiety snake) 4-26) ah ran out of room on LinkedIn! But link below for newsletter - 1: made herd #'s up but probably close + just flagging that deployment is an terrible/unhealthy metric for all the obvious reasons. 2: open to public/unaffiliated w BC
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my dad tells me self promotion makes you abt as charming as an eel (dr seuss quote I think?). i continue to struggle to reconcile this w the fact that hand-wavy things (PR/content etc) are just so gdm beneficial to our business (private illiquid acquisitions, attracting talent, credibility w sellers etc.). So while 'low profile' sounds cool, it just doesn’t optimize things for us (farm's rollup/small-asset-acquisition machine) - there’s lubricant to folks knowing you and (hopefully) liking you. sellers, talent, etc. We’re not HF ppl thinking big thoughts in the office and transacting on a faceless exchange (although, folks forget even Klarman wrote a book!) anyway, all this is to say - to my 86 avg twitter impressions - I haven’t reached a peace w re-sharing this sort of thing but here it is . thank you to The Royal Gazette Limited for spending some time w us!
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this is awesome. are there more things like this out there (i.e. real data of live change, or even real anecdotes from 'the ground'/front lines of live change?) would be cool to see /hear (e.g. > ( - ) tim ferris book sales contraction post which i thought was cool / informative re some generic info businesses, or > ( + ) saw a Siemens expert interview "whole situation is shocking even for people who have been in the business for 40 years. They are getting orders that are double the size of what their entire factory can produce in a year" > ( - ) chegg etc).
Wild trying to determine how AI will change the world and you see two tweets in a row like this.
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“first, one of our salesmen will come diagnose your problem. He’s going to be nice, he’s cool, the kind of guy you don’t mind having in your house.. And you’ll never see him again.” Was wondering if this snl skit was home-services *Pre-being-rolled-up or *Post-being rolled up but then i heard this line, so post? i like to think we take the opposite approach a The Badlands Security Company (locksmith / access control holdco rollup - farm subsidiary) anyway hope this deal announcement via this video was little more interesting than 'thrilled to welcome xyz to our family of partners, protect legcy etc' (and bear w my janky editing - we're just figuring things out w video!) Anyway congrats to team. thank you @ Stephen Santrach for sending this to me and sorry if it’s already been posted to roll up twitter
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i tested like 10 shorts editors for this 4hr koch lecture (~25k MOIC vs buffett 50k moic!) at bermuda college, and while they all need work, there are some promising starts !! here's one I liked (apologies if the formatting or layout or general quality is funky, just figuring out how to work w large video files and man it's not straightforward)
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first aspiring influencer video test run w the new office cameras! i think these'll improve as i get my content / camera game in order 💪 broader aspiration is something like a very-poor-man’s hormozi, but focused on rollups / obscure-ish finance stuff and ideally hoping to hit a pace of ~1-3 videos per week (by YE?!) all in the spirit of embracing (accepting) that any alpha w have in underwriting is melting as fast as brother olaf so future investment platform strength is downstream of brand / distribution / eyeballs / audience / etc (all things x folks appreciate, linkedin folks probably a few months (yrs?) behind x) next video is 4hr lecture on Koch industries I did at Bermuda college. my big take is that koch is basically buffett (~25k MOIC vs Buffett’s ~50k MOIC) but there's like no financial content on him but endless content on Buffett. Koch feels well covered bc of the political activity but basically no one has captured his all-time financial accomplishment well @BrentBeshore - fantastic Permanent Equity swag bag in the back. Unintentional!
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meant to do a whole big launch here but man the more i learned about the 'playbook' (video, coordinated reposting etc) the more exhausted i got. And then I got distracted. so just repasting our public announcement yesterday from LI (know a bit repetitive for x folks): Capitalized teddy ai w $60m seed funding! niche compliance-oriented legal platform incubation. ~25m b2b revs to start but growing quickly! but i think most law firms are mostly junky businesses (key man risk, project based revs, ton of ai risk etc), so super skeptical of any vanilla aggregation theses, but not all! also i’ve now spent an ungodly amount of time on ai rollups and the frontier models/harnesses/token-land/etc. and have increasingly strong views on what’s real and real-ish and what’s jazz hands re ai rollups (+) today some-ish things, (++) tomorrow most things (maybe everything?) (as i said before im usually a pretty even-keeled/reversion-to-the-mean guy but I’m full tin-foil-hat re medium-term ai capabilities) (-) still not super clear to me what an average ‘AI rollup’ can uniquely do vs another ‘ai rollup’ (or enterprising non-ai-native rollup). Meaning yeah ai margin expansion is real in some rollup categories but most of it seems achievable by resourceful competitors? W a lot of off the shelf or easily buildable tools - so like how much margin you uniquely keep at end of the day? (we’ve only found 1 or 2 real secrets!) but man we’re SO excited about AI for anything kind of verifiable, especially if you don’t need low latency inference (i.e. youre good w slow but super smart) relatedly, I have a strong take that the traditional ‘investment guy’ is cooked – right now id say we’re getting the equivalent of a week of BX PE associate underwriting work in like ~1hr of model run time and $50 of tokens. (granted using intensely curated harness/weights/context/etc that I’ve spent all summer building + using frontier class intelligence - fable rn and a little astra but constantly benchmarking accuracy across our underwrites) other details: >not a traditional 'AI' company - partnership platform and sole mission is compliance/client-service and tech is to serve those endpoints. This nuance is important! >investors we're primarily traditional LPs (endowment manager/FO's etc.) >welcome any applied engineering talent ! >man learned a lot about fundraising into the frontier - super different from incubating a vanilla HVAC/etc-etc rollup. Fundraise calls for 3 weeks, ended $115m of various equity asks but equity efficiency biggest driver of high moics + can always raise if reinvestment opp is there. >Sorry for delay to folks involved/advisors - meaning to announce this for a while (special big thanks to Grafton Street Partners - Andrew and Stephen).
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😕 (like to think of myself a pretty even keeled / reversion-to-the-mean-guy (remember feeling pretty early on that covid was prob a long term nothing burger) but man im full tin foil hat w ai and this multi-agent scheming stuff and the pace of it all and just worry there’s to much ego / ambition / greed/human nature etc to slow the train from @dwarkesh_sp @polynoamial transcript)
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per ai - the most convex bets if now is jan 2020 equivalent moment for AI, given darios comment: “in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet (potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage)”
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ai and investing take – ~2010: if you were sorta into nfl/fantasy football you could generally win. ‘inefficient’ would be cliché but accurate. you could create ‘alpha’ in the draft and in trades and in being quick on waiver info etc. 2015: that started to get shaky as the platforms (espn/yahoo etc.) gave slightly more bespoke analytics and third party tools (rotowire, fanpros etc. and alerts generally) got better. today: someone half plugged in and using platform’s (now v good) embedded tools is like 98% as good as someone that eats sleeps breaths fantasy (and fable is just remarkable)
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ah just discovered multiple dM inboxes😵‍💫. I'll respond to all just give me a little time/ grace here! and big TY generally! I'm new to tech world (just a lowly rollup guy...) but ai is game-changing to my incubations/product so now I need status/mindshare w applied ai engineers, ai folks generally etc,.. which is new bottleneck experience for me ! so appreciate all the advice
can any startup/vc folks out 🙏 help me w the latest funding-announcement/PR playbook ? any dm/advice appreciated! (we just closed 60m seed/incubation round for our AI legal services rollup and super excited abt it - ~25m arr, ~100% gr, ~130% nRR and growing/acquiring arr quickly hopefully 50-100m EOY, stanford CS rockstar leading it etc) – but I’m not really part of the startup community so not sure on playbook to get as much attention as possible at announcement next week I know PE pr outreach / press releases etc well, but basic question is what else should we be doing here (I don’t know like HN or reddit or send cold email to @tbpn or that sort of thing?) And I’m happy to spend some money on it !! Kyle
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can any startup/vc folks out 🙏 help me w the latest funding-announcement/PR playbook ? any dm/advice appreciated! (we just closed 60m seed/incubation round for our AI legal services rollup and super excited abt it - ~25m arr, ~100% gr, ~130% nRR and growing/acquiring arr quickly hopefully 50-100m EOY, stanford CS rockstar leading it etc) – but I’m not really part of the startup community so not sure on playbook to get as much attention as possible at announcement next week I know PE pr outreach / press releases etc well, but basic question is what else should we be doing here (I don’t know like HN or reddit or send cold email to @tbpn or that sort of thing?) And I’m happy to spend some money on it !! Kyle
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anyone else keep getting tricked into audio books / podcasts that turn out to be ai junk? today’s example below (thought I was discerning but looks like I’m a fool-me-many-times guy), nick Hunter here got me good!
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‘widows mandate’ - when a US congressman/woman dies, i guess their spouse can effectively take their seat pretty cool ! jim collins @level5leaders @tferriss @thesamparr
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this is cool . rollup used to be dirty word but we're back baby @Restructuring__
“The world needs another private equity fund like a hole in the heads” “I would do a roll-up instead” KKR Founder
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i like this ‘Installation Phase’ empirical framing for ai/spacex/etc bc it’s good balance of ‘yes the tech is real but valuations can also be whacky’ both can be true >industrial revolution (late 1700’s (1st one / uk)) >steam / railways (early/mid 1800’s) >Electricity / steel (late 1800’s) >Oil / automobile (early 1900’s) >Info tech (late 1900’s) 'each runs through two halves. First an installation phase, where financial capital floods in, builds out the new infrastructure, and inflates a speculative bubble that ends in a crash. Then, after a turning point (the crash plus institutional recalibration), a deployment phase, where the technology diffuses through the real economy and produces broad-based prosperity — the "golden ages” (idea from Peretz, ‘02)
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Personal injury PnL that just came in
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man this is just so inconsistent with my current experience in aggregating small operating assets (“I’m seeing the best deals that I’ve seen at any point in my career”). i feel like all we see is overpriced junk. anyway awesome man, I’m jealous , and good luck !
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