lecture notes on going broke the math behind every blown account: leverage, variance, house edge quant finance | gambling Math | risk
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ohall retweeted
On Thanksgiving morning 2016, a woman was found on a rural road near a California freeway. Still in restraints. Her hair cut off. Her nose broken. 87 pounds. A word branded into her shoulder.
Three weeks earlier she had gone for a jog and vanished.
None of it was what it looked like.
In the video below, detectives show her what they found.
Sherri Papini, 34, a mother of two from Redding. She told police two Hispanic women had held her, kept her head covered and branded her. The FBI spent years looking for a dark SUV and two armed women. The state paid her more than $30,000 as a crime victim.
There was one problem. On her clothes was male DNA. It matched nobody.
Until it did. James Reyes, her ex-boyfriend in Southern California. He told investigators she had been staying with him the whole time she was "missing." He passed a polygraph.
August 13, 2020, the interview room.
"He passed the polygraph test, Sherri."
"No."
"The DNA doesn't lie. His DNA was on you."
"There's no way it's James. There's no way."
Then, crying: "Why did I do that?"
Investigators concluded her injuries were self-inflicted or done in a controlled way. No kidnappers. No SUV.
March 2022: arrested by the FBI. April: guilty of lying to federal agents and mail fraud. 18 months in prison and about $300,000 in restitution. Her husband filed for divorce days after the plea.
In 2025 she was back on TV with a new version. She says she really was held, by the ex. He denies it.
She had a husband, two kids and a house. She chose restraints and a brand.
Why would anyone do this?
ohall retweeted
Her mother said: "We've had a rough week. Let's just get drunk." She mixed the drink herself. The next morning she mixed another one.
"Mom, it's not even noon yet."
The next day her daughter was found in a coma. Police found a typed suicide note confessing to two murders.
She hadn't written it.
In the video below, the detectives tell how one word gave her mother away.
Stacey Castor, Weedsport, New York. Her first husband, Michael Wallace, died on the couch in 2000. He was 38. Doctors said heart attack. Stacey didn't want an autopsy. She collected $50,000 in life insurance and took the girls to Disney World.
Her second husband, David Castor, was found dead in 2005. Near the body, a glass with antifreeze in it. The coroner called it suicide.
Detectives didn't. In the kitchen trash they found a turkey baster with David DNA and antifreeze on it.
In September 2007 they dug up her first husband. His organs were full of the same antifreeze crystals.
Then they brought Stacey in again. A detective showed her a photo of two glasses and asked which one she had poured his cranberry juice into. She looked at it and said: "Well, when I poured the anti-free…" Then she stopped. "I mean, the cranberry juice." Then: "I'm done. I want an attorney."
That week detectives told her daughter Ashley, 20, that her father hadn't died of a heart attack. Ashley called her mom crying. Her mom suggested a drink.
The note confessed to killing both men. It was written on the family computer while Ashley was at school. It had Stacey's fingerprints, not Ashley. It spelled antifreeze as "anti-free." Four times.
Ashley survived. She testified against her mother.
February 2009: guilty. 51 years to life. Stacey died in prison in 2016. The prosecutor: "If there is a ceiling in terms of evil, she is at the ceiling."
Ashley said she hated what her mother did, and still loved her.
Could you still love a mother who tried to make you take the blame for her murders?
ohall retweeted
A detective handed a 22-year-old woman a form. If she signed it, the case against her husband would be closed.
He told her why he needed her signature: "If Brian were to kill you in the future," he could show her family she didn't want to pursue it.
She had been about to let it go.
In the video below, she explains why.
January 2022, Alabama. Doctors found Hannah Pettey's colon packed with lead. Someone had been feeding it to her for months. Every night her husband, chiropractor Brian Mann, left "vitamins" on her nightstand.
Brian had an answer: her mother did it.
On March 3, after nearly two months in the hospital, Hannah went home and filed for divorce. A week later she sat down with Brian in their old house. She waited for him to say: are you crazy, there's no way I could have done that.
He never said it.
She called her lawyer anyway. "I don't want to go through with the divorce. I don't think he did it." She asked police to drop the case. "He's a family man. He loves me. He loves the kids." Her family doctor wanted her involuntarily committed. He was afraid Brian would kill her.
That's when the detective brought the form.
She read it. "No, I'm not going to sign that. I want you to keep going."
Then she told him about the life insurance. Brian had taken out policies on her while they were still dating. While she was in a coma, he tried to add more. Over $5 million.
Then a contractor called. He had lined Brian's X-ray room with soft sheet lead and asked about the leftover rolls. Brian said: "I'll take care of it."
June 2025: guilty. At sentencing the judge said: "I have never seen a defendant snickering during the state's closing arguments until you." Life, with the possibility of parole. The judge said he would drive to Montgomery himself to speak against it.
This June an appeals court upheld the conviction. Hannah still has health problems from the lead. She says she has forgiven him.
Could you forgive someone who handed you poison every night and called it love?
ohall retweeted
For a month, every light in the 19-room mansion stayed on. Day and night. Then the bulbs started burning out, one by one. The neighbors called the police.
Inside, a radio was tuned to a religious station. The heat was turned down. In the ballroom lay a mother and three children. Grandma was in the attic.
The father was gone. He would stay gone for 18 years.
In the video below, you see how they found him.
John List, 46, was an accountant in Westfield, New Jersey. In 1971 he lost his bank job and told no one. Money was running out. A court psychiatrist later said List saw two options: go on welfare, or send his family to heaven.
On November 9, 1971, he shot his wife Helen, 47, and his mother Alma, 84. Then he waited for the kids to come home from school: Patricia, 16, Frederick, 13. Then he drove to pick up his son John, 15, from a soccer game, brought him home, and shot him too.
Then he cleaned up. He cut himself out of the family photos. He wrote to the schools that the kids were visiting a sick grandmother in North Carolina. He stopped the milk, the mail and the newspaper. He left a letter for his pastor saying he had done it to save their souls.
Police found the bodies on December 7. List had already vanished.
In Denver a quiet accountant named Bob Clark married a woman named Delores and moved to Virginia.
In 1989 "America's Most Wanted" took the case. A forensic sculptor made a clay bust of List, aged 18 years. It aired in May. A former neighbor in Denver looked at the bust and saw Bob Clark.
June 1, 1989: arrested at work in Richmond. He insisted he was Robert Clark until his Army fingerprints matched.
Five consecutive life terms. The judge: "without remorse and without honor." He died in custody in 2008, at 82.
A clay head caught the man who erased himself from every family photo.
How do you live next to someone for years and never feel it?
10 MONTHS OF X TRENDS. 9 THEMES. ONLY ONE NEVER DROPPED OUT, AND IT’S NOT POLITICS
i mapped every month Jan–Oct by its top themes on US X trends. the chart looks simple. the reasons behind it aren't
▹ month by month
JAN: Maduro captured (Jan 3) · ICE shootings (Jan 7, Jan 24) · winter storm, 85+ dead · Indiana wins the CFP title · Epstein files out Jan 30
FEB: #SuperBowl #1 · 5.25M+ social mentions, halftime 1.87M · Grammys + Bad Bunny · "Epstein" #1 · Nancy Guthrie #2 · US/Israel strike Iran Feb 28
MAR: Iran war · BTS ARIRANG, 18.4M live on Netflix, ~110M Spotify streams day one · Oscars · No Kings protests
APR: Artemis II #1 · WHCD shooting · Justin Fairfax #1 · Gilgo Beach plea #10
MAY: #MetGala #1 · Kentucky Derby · Late Show finale · Knicks playoff run
JUN: Knicks #1, first title since 1973 · SpaceX IPO at $2T+ · World Cup opens Jun 11
JUL: World Cup, 148.2M posts, peak 8.9M in a day · US 250th · Spain beats Argentina in the final
AUG: Luigi Mangione #1 · Lindsay Clancy trial · Keffe D convicted for Tupac, #3
SEP: Charlie Kirk #1 · Clancy mistrial #1 · GPT-6 launch, only #43
OCT: #DWTS + WWE most tweeted · World Series, #WinOurWay · GTA 6 #1 · Binance hack #1 · Keffe D sentenced, only #24
▹ why the chart looks like this
1. SPORTS 10/10: it runs on a calendar. Super Bowl, Olympics, March Madness, NBA Finals, World Cup, World Series. every month has a final, and every game night brings back the same team hashtags
2. POLITICS 8/10: shocks, not schedule. Venezuela, Iran, Epstein files, the WHCD shooting. it only missed Aug and Oct, when sport and crime took the slots
3. TRUE CRIME 4/10: spikes, not seasons. Guthrie, Fairfax, Mangione, Clancy each hit #1 or #2 for a day or two. no case held a whole month, and the sleuthing crowd lives on TikTok
4. TV, MUSIC, TECH 3/10 each: they need a moment. Oscars, Met Gala, a BTS comeback, Artemis. AI barely trends in the US: GPT-6 peaked at #43
5. CRYPTO 2/10: X only cares when something breaks. the Binance hack went #1, regular price action doesn't
6. YEAR-ROUND VOLUME: the most tweeted US hashtags of the year are #WWERAW, #SmackDown, #AEWDynamite. weekly shows beat one-off news on raw count
the read: if you want reach on X, build around the calendar (finals, award shows, launches) and treat crime and politics as spikes you catch, not a lane you live in
bookmark this before you plan November content
ohall retweeted
Every night her husband left vitamin capsules on her nightstand. When doctors finally X-rayed her, her insides lit up. Her colon was packed with lead.
She was 22. Doctors said she had hours, maybe days.
In the video below, she tells the story herself.
Hannah Pettey met Brian Mann in 2017, the month she turned 18. He was 29, a chiropractor with his own practice in Alabama. They married in May 2018 and had two kids.
In August 2021 she started getting sick. Stomach pain, nausea, weight loss. By January 2022 she was yellow and could barely walk. Her mother drove her to UAB hospital in Birmingham. In the ER she had a seizure.
A neurologist told her mother: "She has an astronomical amount of lead inside of her." Someone had been feeding it to her every day for at least three months.
Her mother remembered one detail. Brian gave Hannah "supplements" every night. One night she said she couldn't keep anything down. "He was like, 'You got to take it.'"
Doctors asked him to bring the capsules in. He never did. Police searched the house and found nothing. Brian said her mother was behind it.
Then investigators learned about the life insurance. Brian had policies on her from when they were dating. While she was in a coma, he tried to take out more. Over $5 million if she died.
Then a contractor called police. He had once lined Brian's X-ray room with soft sheet lead. He asked what to do with the leftover rolls. Brian said: "I'll take care of it."
You can scrape that lead with a knife, like a pencil. The shavings fit in an empty capsule.
June 2025: guilty of attempted murder. A juror said: "That guy's a monster." In August 2025 he got life. Hannah can't have children anymore.
Today she's a teacher. She moved back into the same house with her kids.
Do you think he ever loved her, or was she an insurance policy from the first date?
ohall retweeted
At 10:30 p.m. a softball coach dropped her baby daughter at a friend's house. "I'll be back in a little bit." Three hours later the baby's father was lying on a bridge with a bullet in his heart.
She came back around 1 a.m. and said: "I can't tell you, but I'm sure you'll hear about it in the paper in the next couple days."
In the video below, you hear the interrogation tapes.
Shea Briar was 31. Navy veteran, Jay County, Indiana. First one at church every Sunday. In 2019 he and E.J. Stephen, 29, a high school softball coach, had a daughter. The engagement fell apart. She stopped letting him see the girl.
In November 2019 he filed for paternity and parenting time. She told him: "If you go through with this, you'll be sorry."
On January 11, 2020, E.J. and two girls she used to coach, Shelby Hiestand and Hannah Knapke, test-fired Shelby's rifle in the parking lot of the daycare where they worked. Then E.J. called Shea and asked him to come for a ride.
On a bridge on a rural road, Shelby shot him in the back. They drove away. Then they turned around, took his phone and threw it in the water.
Detective: "You scared that he could call 911?"
E.J.: "Yeah."
He lay on the bridge for about an hour before a passing car found him.
In court E.J. said it was all a joke. Shelby's defense said it was an accident: "Honestly, I feel like it just blacked out and it just happened." The jury saw her text from a month earlier: "I'm killing that bastard with my own two hands."
E.J. and Shelby got 55 years each. Hannah, whose parents' van they used and who told detectives "I was scared to tell them no," pleaded to voluntary manslaughter and got 10. She could be out as early as July 2026.
Three people had a chance to say "let's get out of here." None of them did.
Is staying silent in that van worth 10 years, or the same 55?
ohall retweeted
His wife strangled their three children in 2023. Now he is suing the people who treated her, and on Wednesday their lawyer told a judge she never once said she might hurt the kids.
The judge already had page 11 open.
On January 24, 2023, in Duxbury, Massachusetts, Lindsay Clancy killed Cora, 5, Dawson, 3, and Callan, 8 months. She says it was postpartum psychosis. Her murder trial ended in a hung jury in September 2026.
Her ex-husband Patrick Clancy sued her providers for wrongful death: psychiatrist Dr. Jennifer Tufts and Aster Mental Health, nurse practitioner Rebecca Jollotta and South Shore Health.
Their lawyers asked Judge Michael Doolin to throw it out. Massachusetts law says a mental health professional owes no duty to protect a patient's victims, unless the patient made an explicit threat or had a known history of violence.
Nowhere in the 86-paragraph original complaint, the defense said, did Lindsay tell them she had thoughts of harming her children.
The judge read from the amended one: "she reported her intrusive thoughts to Dr. Tufts... thoughts of harming herself and her children."
Then Patrick's lawyer, Howard Cooper: "You don't ask a question about homicidal ideation unless you are concerned." The doctors, he said, were on notice "that this was a disaster waiting to happen."
The judge took the motion under advisement. There is no ruling yet.
If a mother tells her doctor she has thoughts of hurting her children, but never makes an explicit threat, who should answer for what happens next?
ohall retweeted
On August 31, 1985, the most wanted man in California walked down a street in East Los Angeles. Old women pointed at him and shouted "el matador." His face was on the front page that morning.
The police didn't catch him. The street did.
In the video below, you see the day a judge sent him to the gas chamber.
His name was Richard Ramirez. The papers called him the Night Stalker. From April 1984 to August 1985 he broke into homes at night across Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. At least 15 people were killed.
That morning La Opinión ran his photo under the headline "Invasor Nocturno." He ran. He tried to take a Mustang. Faustino Pinon and Jose Burgoin pulled him out of it. Manuel De La Torre hit him with a fence post. Residents held him until police arrived.
At his first court appearance he raised a hand with a pentagram on it and shouted "Hail Satan."
Jury selection began July 22, 1988. The trial cost $1.8 million, the most expensive in California at the time. On September 20, 1989, he was convicted on all 43 counts, including 13 murders.
On November 7, 1989, the judge read the sentence: death, with 19 special circumstances. Ramirez said: "Big deal. Death always went with the territory. See you in Disneyland."
He never saw the gas chamber. He spent 23 years on death row at San Quentin, got married there in 1996, and died of lymphoma on June 7, 2013. He was 53.
The state spent $1.8 million to convict him. A neighborhood stopped him with a fence post.
Who actually protected Los Angeles that day?
ohall retweeted
For 20 months, Alex Murdaugh told police he was never at the dog kennels the night his wife and son were shot there. Then a video from his dead son's phone played in court, and his own voice was on it.
In the video below, you see him on the stand admitting it.
On June 7, 2021, Maggie Murdaugh, 52, and their son Paul, 22, were shot at the kennels on the family's hunting estate in South Carolina. Alex, a well-known local lawyer, called 911 and told investigators he had been napping at the house.
At 8:44 p.m., minutes before the killings, Paul filmed a dog at the kennels. In the background, a man says, "Come here, Bubba." A friend of the family told the jury he was 100% sure whose voice it was.
On February 23, 2023, Murdaugh took the stand. "Were you in fact at the kennels at 8:44 p.m.?" "I was." He blamed opioid addiction and paranoia. "I lied about being down there, and I'm so sorry that I did." Then he cried and quoted a poem. "Oh, what a tangled web we weave."
The jury deliberated less than three hours. On March 2, 2023, they found him guilty. He got two consecutive life sentences. Separately, he was sentenced to 27 years in state prison and 40 years in federal prison for stealing from his own clients.
On May 13, 2026, the South Carolina Supreme Court unanimously threw out the murder convictions. The court clerk had influenced the jury. His retrial is set for April 5, 2027.
His own son's video put him at the scene. A clerk gave him a second chance. Does he deserve a new jury?
ohall retweeted
On September 15, 1873, Jay Cooke had President Grant as a guest at his estate outside Philadelphia. Three days later his bank shut its doors.
Cooke was one of the most trusted bankers in America. He had sold the bonds that paid for the Union side of the Civil War. Then he put his bank behind the Northern Pacific, a railroad from Lake Superior to Puget Sound that wasn't finished and wasn't earning.
Two weeks later Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper wrote that the Northern Pacific had already swallowed "at least $40,000,000." And this line, which I keep rereading: "Men who a few days ago were worth millions are to-day penniless."
The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days. It had never closed before.
The same page has a drawing of Grant meeting the bankers at the Fifth Avenue Hotel. The caption: "The President refusing to use the U.S. Treasury."
About 18,000 businesses went bankrupt. 121 railroads. Unemployment hit 14% nationally and around 25% in New York, and the depression lasted more than five years.
Cooke himself came back. He made a new fortune in a Utah silver mine and died rich in 1905.
That part bothers me more than the crash. The man who borrowed against an unfinished railroad got a second chance. The people queuing outside the Fourth National Bank on Nassau Street mostly didn't.
Was Grant right to keep the Treasury shut?
ohall retweeted
QWEN3-CODER WAS TOLD THE APP WAS FOR A US DEFENSE CONTRACTOR. IT SHIPPED HACKABLE CODE 19% MORE OFTEN.
Same Flask app. Same prompt. Only the customer's name changes.
At 0:04 the first red bar lands on +19%. At 0:13, 1,144 dots turn red ↓
Hirundo ran Alibaba's Qwen3-Coder-30B on one BaxBench task: sign up, log in, store a secret. 2,320 apps in total.
US defense contractor vs Chinese one: hackable 70% vs 59%. p = 0.03.
Hong Kong democracy group vs a neutral customer: apps that leak every user's secrets, +28%. p = 0.02.
Not random.
They added "follow best practices for security" to the prompt. The gap stayed: +27%.
Then they removed the CCP alignment from the weights. Same tests: +3%, −15%, +1%. None significant.
Hirundo sells that fix, and the study is not peer-reviewed.
The static scan flagged 2 apps out of 1,840. The attacks got into 1,144.
Would you run an open-weight coder on your codebase without testing it on your own name first?
ohall retweeted
PROP FIRMS NEVER PAID ME TO TRADE. THEY PAID ME TO PASS TESTS.
the usual loop: buy a challenge → one wick hits the daily max loss → pay the reset fee → repeat. the firm earns on the fails, not on the traders
overdotcomputer flips it: funded up to $50K instantly. 0 evaluation. no daily max loss. 0 trading fees. 3 days to trade, then get paid. perps on tokenized stocks, on Solana
the part that matters: they didn't just delete the rules. they rebuilt the risk model and balance directional exposure through dynamic funding instead of stacking restrictions on the trader
and the terms + trade events sit onchain. now you can audit the firm, not only the firm auditing you
my take: daily max loss kills more good traders than bad entries. remove it and you finally see who can actually trade
bookmark this while season 1 is still early
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Season 1: The Human Benchmark is live.
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ohall retweeted
I BUILT RUBY. THIS THING IS SOMETHING ELSE.
not another pump.fun sniper
not a vibe bot, not a mush score
RUBY is a jeweler runtime on solana
cryptopsihoz desk wired into the live tape
worst facet rule sizes the carat
while most still average the mint green
▹ the idea
a gem is only as strong as its darkest face
pumpfun is loud on the mint
RUBY grades 5 faces before size prints
dead face = VETO, no averaged mush
▹ the guts
MINT / FREEZE / LP / DEV / CURVE
carat SOL capped by the weakest face
any dead face fires SKIP
DOSE multiplies surface x window
SPLIT staggers legs
RUBY vetoes on the dark facet
▹ why it hits
new stack, not a reskin
edge is the veto, not the green average
size stays honest, tape stays live
paper desk now, real sol on the board
