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Replying to @leadlagreport
August 2024. Yen carry unwound. Credit spreads widened. Long treasuries caught the bid.
30-year Treasury yield at 5.29% today.
My bond fund $JOJO is built to sit in long Treasuries when credit is broken.
Risk-off. Treasuries. That is the point.
Because Oil is about to be deflationary.
My Lumber/Gold ratio, and now closed fund $RORO, relied on this because Lumber is a tell on housing.
Housing was NOT the business cycle, which is why the signal did not work as AI became the business cycle.
Housing is about to remind you fucking nerds your AI girlfriend will break up with your broke ass because you can’t afford a new home at 30% mortgage rates.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA retweeted
August 2024. Yen carry unwound. Credit spreads widened. Long treasuries caught the bid.
30-year Treasury yield at 5.29% today.
My bond fund $JOJO is built to sit in long Treasuries when credit is broken.
Risk-off. Treasuries. That is the point.
Today's Idea: Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), $338.92, 23x forward earnings. Equities is about 16% of revenue, so options come first. Risk: repeal paired with a lower fee cap.
freemarketsreport.com/the-se…
Seven rule changes this week. The biggest two were about who gets paid: stablecoin rewards at the OCC and exchange fees at the SEC. My seven stock ideas: five up, two down, average +1.4%. Noise.
freemarketsreport.com/the-we…
Michael A. Gayed, CFA retweeted
"It's a generational buying opportunity". This is gonna be the quote of this cycle as people keep averaging down on many stocks that will never bounce back.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA retweeted
In 2002, I was home on a weekend from college.
My parents had an RIA and a hedge fund. My father the CIO managing the portfolio.
He made a bet thinking the stock market bottomed (early by 6 months) and suffered a terrible portfolio drawdown.
All of his family’s net worth was in that hedge fund.
I remember sitting outside in the garden seeing tears in his eyes. He thought it was over. They were going to sell the house, and his career as a fund manager was over.
I was too young to understand what was going on. In truth I had a very complicated relationship with my father. He was scared and didn’t want to show it to his only son.
I remember looking at him dead in the eyes and saying to him “if you can’t come back, if you can’t do it, no one can.”
“Get up.”
“Get the fuck back up.”
That was the bottom. He tripled the portfolio value afterwards in 12 months.
I have suffered so much, and I was about to make a terrible mistake just as my bottom might actually be in place.
He died in 2008, and I swear to God in heaven I hear him telling me this time that I’m the one that needs to get back up.
I write this with tears in my eyes.
I’m looking up, to get back up.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA retweeted
Replying to @leadlagreport
Mark my words, this will run afoul of antitrust.
It requires competitor ETF managers to transfer a share of their revenue to a direct competitor, while exempting their own ETFs and potentially disadvantaging investors in funds that refuse to pay.
Soooooo - Gold was fucked after all?
By the way these reports of Gold being synthetically created (molecularly similar like what lab grown diamonds are) will destroy any arguments around scarcity.
I’m not anti-gold.
I’m anti stupid fucking narratives.
BREAKING: Spot gold falls below $4,000/oz for the first time since July 29th as US-Iran tensions escalate.
This puts gold prices down -15% from their August 25th high.
I can't believe it but @CharlesSchwab is following @Fidelity down the morally bankrupt path of charging retail investors insane fees to trade ETFs.
Instead of $100 it's going to be $50.
So maybe they're 1/2 as evil?
"Yes we're screwing over our own customers but at least we're not as bad as @Fidelity!"
Would be embarrassed to work at either shop.
Gross.
A top SEC official says ending Rule 611 is likely a Q1 2027 event. The same package covers access fees and the market data formula. Repeal is easy. Who gets paid after is the fight.
freemarketsreport.com/the-se…
The Fed is hiking into a credit boom.
Business loans are up 9.98% from a year ago, per Federal Reserve data via FRED.
Business is either strong or borrowing to cover higher costs. The number does not say which.
leadlagreport.com/the-fed-is…
$100 in an equity total-return index in January 1990 reached about $4,736 by July 2026 in nominal terms. Adjusted for CPI, about $1,807.
Same path, different question.
From the third edition: amazon.com/dp/B0HL7CXDLX




















