Lukas retweeted
AIs cracking short-term superforecasting is such an important (and, still, under-discussed) trend.
Via a new piece from @nikostro economist.com/science-and-te…
Lukas retweeted
Militia Capital is hiring a quantitative engineer in Austin.
AI is probably going to eat discretionary investing in the next 10 years.
We want to create AI tools and trading systems that distill and improve the judgment of our portfolio managers. We're not a HFT/MFT shop and don't expect to compete there; we're trying something different, which is to automate and trade on superior qualitative forecasts over weeks, months and maybe years.
We're looking for exceptional statistics/ML, problem-solving and engineering ability. Finance experience is optional. Exceptional graduates and candidates from other technical fields are welcome.
Pay: $275K base, $300K-$500K target bonus, depending mostly on your contribution to profits.
Email [email protected] with your resume and a short description of your hardest technical project (research, open-source work, etc.), ideally with a link to it.
I can't reply to everyone, and I apologize for that.
Lukas retweeted
This is just the age old PM vs. Analyst debate. Part of the PM toolkit should be knowing how to navigate this exact dynamic well.
Lukas retweeted
Om ånger, demonen som kallas hindsight bias och vad som egentligen betyder någonting.
aktiesparfonden.se/en-inlaga…
Lukas retweeted
Using agents 24/7, it feels so obvious why certain SaaS (observability, ticketing, CI, cloud) are benefitting massively from AI
Must be scary to being software investor who’s never used agents or these products
Huge Atlassian quarterly beat. There was a misplaced thesis over the past 6 months that somehow agents would be bad for certain software categories. There’s definitely truth in this in some areas, but many were parsing this poorly.
In a world where agents are generating 100X more code, processing massive amounts of data, or making decisions across your systems, the role of the platforms that manage this data and these workflows becomes more important, not less.
Enterprises care about governance, security, compliance, guardrails, safe access to data, and many more critical capabilities that go into these systems of record.
Lukas retweeted
If you hold a levered portfolio of ~7 stocks for a long time, chances are that you will look like a genius or like an idiot, whichever comes first. Kelly, Information Coefficient, etc. are not useless concepts.
Many such cases these days.
Lukas retweeted
Pratar lite Argo Defence och spekulerar kring vad som händer med Evolution i bl.a. Sydkorea. Men även lite sportsbetting historik och hur Kambi et al. ”stänger av” vinnande spelare
Sommarserien tuggar vidare och denna vecka har vi med oss Marlon @MrEVplus på Exelity som i 20 år skapat överavkastning.
shows.acast.com/marketmakers…
Retweeta gärna!
Lukas retweeted
One of the most persistent misconceptions I see about the industry is that systematic = quant = stat arb = HFT. Jane Street has never been an HFT in the sense of Virtu or Tower, and at this point they even have fundamental long/short equity (but traded systematically).
Lukas retweeted
Det är faktiskt rätt anmärkningsvärt att kalla helt vanlig due diligence för "inte se skogen för alla träd". Finns ingen avancerad matematik bakom det utan rätt enkla principer och framförallt en förmåga att se saker nyktert och utan ekonomisk vinning.
Begrunda tråden nedan som föranledde min tråd om marginalerna i $SNX.
Det var "väldigt uppenbart" för Herr Ödmjuk att marginalerna skulle ligga på 8.5% under 2026 och sen leta sig upp till 11%. Men han lyckades inte ens pricka marginalen på 7% till 2 månader senare som landade på 6.5% på rullande.
Jag förklarade att det fanns flera drivkrafter varför marginalerna skulle komma lägre (ökad mix mot nötter/Coop-affären som är lågmarginal, sämre skalfördelar på de *relevanta* delarna än vad många prisar in och vad VDn själv säger (!). Samt varför folks extrapoleringar byggt på fel premisser (bruttomarginaler som varit FX-dopade).
Istället började bolaget klaga på dåliga jämförelsekvartal, dålig potatisskörd, frakt i enstaka fall, negativ påverkan från att man gjorde utförsäljningar, ICA-avtal som inte gick igenom, Willys. Flera kvartal i rad. Det finns alltid tusen bortförklaringar och man har sett det förut.
Vad byggde han sin servett på? Vad VDn erinrat i tidigare samtal. Gjorde han någon egen analys? Troligen inte. Svarade han något vettigt när jag frågade om utveckling? Nej istället nedlåtande att man ska sätta upp saker i Excel.
Om detta kallas för avancerad matematik eller att inte se skogen för träden så vet jag inte vad jag ska säga, för tyvärr blev det exakt som jag började påpeka i November i detta fallet.
Lukas retweeted
I would say that the dominant approach in multi-managers now is “quantamental” especially in equities (not so much in fixed income or macro). Center books, alpha capture (external and internal), factor and sector hedging overlays, replication. Far from having failed, it became so ubiquitous that we don’t notice it any more.
I think people thought that “quantamental” would mean fundamental managers using lots of quant inputs but in fact it turned out to be much more profitable for fundamental managers to be inputs into a quant investing process.
Lukas retweeted
Alex Gerko has built XTX Markets into one of the fastest growing, most profitable firms in the secretive business of algorithmic trading via a prescient bet of AI-powered quant strategies wsj.com/finance/alex-gerko-x…
Lukas retweeted
Enea. ÄNTLIGEN som den gode Fylking skulle ropat. Enea MOSAR förväntningarna med 12% organisk tillväxt, den högsta på många år. ABG räknade med 1%. Med starka bruttomarginaler på 77% och tight cost-control ökar EBITDA med 42% till 75 mkr mot ABGs est på 53 mkr.
Aktien på PE 10x
Lukas retweeted
WTI is not trading at a premium to Brent. It's an artifact of futures roll dates. The front month Brent contract rolls earlier than front month WTI, so Brent front month is currently for *June* delivery whereas WTI front month is for *May* delivery.
The rolls are about three weeks out of sync - around 15th Apr the pattern will look "normal" again as WTI rolls to June, and then on 23rd Apr it will look "wrong" again as Brent rolls to July.
This creates a sawtooth offset to the true Brent/WTI premium. You can see it clearly in this chart of prices from 2005-06 where the blue line is the difference of the active contract, and the red line is corrected by interpolating to a constant 30 calendar day maturity.
Lukas retweeted
Läst i mailkorgen:
”The average EU stock move on results through 4Q earnings season has so far been the largest on our data stretching back to 2010, and that despite a small magnitude of EPS surprises.”