Leni Mayo

sam: local inference is a terrible allocation of scarce resources “a lot of people want local inference, and somehow they assume that the problem is solved now because we have open-source models, we're going to be able to run them on our computers, and so we're not going to need all the stuff in the data centre but from a global allocation perspective, actually it's quite terrible to have everybody, like, have a bunch of the world's limited supply of DRAM sitting in their own computer and being used five percent of the time you want maximum utilisation in the cloud if you're trying to deal with this very supply-constrained environment somehow many people's intuition is the opposite of that”

Except so easily fixed. Limit changes to property. Voila! Solved magically.

When the CGT component is so very small vs the property component (0.5 of 3.6B) and the risks so high that there will be a net tax-take reduction and broad productivity decline, how is this justifiable?

Same profit, different tax - the CGT's dogs breakfast. My article in the @australian's Inquirer today quotes Chief Economist of the NSW Parliamentary Budget Office, @DerekFranc90653 It's hard to get your head around just how bad this is, because it is so counter-intuitive.

Tetlock’s study into forecasting accuracy found that the most important skill was a willingness to update ones beliefs when new information arrived In Think Again

Hypothesis: One limit on the switch to a remote world is that the only safe way for a group to talk is in person. Better communication tools and more bandwidth can't fix this.

🚨This is the clearest, most informative video of why the government is not closing schools and quarantining us. This WILL SAVE LIVES in the long run and make absolutely sure the NHS is not overrun. Quarantine only when the NHS is at 95% of MAX capacity. We have one shot at it.