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VC | Angel Investor | OTC Specialist Backing founders building the future of crypto.

Estonia
Joined February 2026
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Harfinance retweeted
Katana. Naginata. Kanabo. Three weapon traits from our expanded Rashito ape-samurai art pack, each bringing a different look to the same warrior. Which belongs on your NFT? rashito.fun #Rashito #NFT
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Bitcoin Mining Revenue Hits 11-Month High Despite Brutal Hashprice Decline While bitcoin prices have tumbled in the aftermath of the massive $6.3 billion Binance hack, miners closed October with their highest monthly revenue since November 2025. However, the leading crypto asset’s recent price deterioration has taken a considerable toll on mining profitability, with current hashprice figures sitting 17.54% below their levels just 30 days earlier.
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KuCoin Announces Russia and Belarus Exit With Individual Account Deadlines KuCoin says it is discontinuing all services for users in Russia and Belarus. Affected accounts will receive their own deadlines for closing positions and withdrawing assets. KuCoin has announced an immediate end to services for users in Russia and Belarus, while saying it will provide an orderly process for affected customers to close positions and withdraw assets. The October 29 notice applies across the exchange’s products and features. The announcement leaves an important operational detail at account level. It does not publish one universal withdrawal deadline, so users should not assume a date circulating elsewhere applies to their circumstances. more detial👇 kucoin.com/announcement/en-i…
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TGE season is loading and every serious founder is asking the same question: Where do we launch? The numbers and infrastructure from our side of the table: 100% KYC-Verified Investor Pool 270+ VCs & Angels in the network 0 USDT CEXAID fee on Token Generation (Standard BNB gas only) Tier-1 CEX Listing Readiness & MM alignment 100% On-Chain Contract Refund Architecture 24/7 Live Crypto Markets Radar & Unlock Terminal From upcoming launches to ecosystem builders across BNB Chain, projects come here for genuine runway, not vanity metrics. The raise is just day one. Launching on CEXAID isn't just dropping a sale link. We bridge the gap between early-stage fundraising and secondary market liquidity: institutional exchange-facing documentation, order-book planning, and direct capital introductions before and after your TGE. Your TGE deserves more than an opaque sale page. Launching soon? Talk to us 👇 🚀 Apply to Launch: cexaid.com/launchpad 🌐 Markets Terminal: cexaid.com
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Harfinance retweeted
Michael Saylor Hints at New Strategy Bitcoin Purchase as ETFs Lose $643 Million Michael Saylor hints at a new Strategy Bitcoin buy as BTC trades near $78,000 and spot Bitcoin ETFs lose $643 million on October 30 Michael Saylor has hinted that Strategy may have bought more Bitcoin. On Sunday, the executive chairman posted his familiar orange-themed chart on X. “We found room for even more orange,” Saylor wrote alongside the chart. He often shares this image before the company announces new Bitcoin purchases. The post did not say how many coins Strategy may have bought. It also did not confirm whether any deal had been completed. Strategy usually teases purchases on Sundays and releases details on Mondays. Bitcoin was trading near $78,000 at the time, following the $6.3 billion Binance hack. Strategy’s Recent Bitcoin Purchases The company’s buying has been slow in recent weeks. On October 19, Strategy bought 267 Bitcoin, lifting its holdings to 848,517 coins. That purchase came with $193 million in buybacks of its variable-rate preferred stock. The company also raised its buyback limit for these securities from $2 billion to $3 billion. Strategy released its latest financial results on October 29. They showed its Bitcoin holdings have grown 26% since the start of 2026. In the third quarter, the company bought 7,218 Bitcoin for $588.1 million. It also sold 5,552 coins, leaving a net gain of 1,666 Bitcoin. Strategy raised about $21.23 billion in the first ten months of the year. That money went to several company activities, not only Bitcoin purchases. The company reported record third-quarter operating income of $20.91 billion. Most of this came from an accounting gain on its Bitcoin holdings. Net income reached $19.53 billion, up from $2.79 billion a year earlier. “We’re at the beginning of the next bitcoin bull market,” Saylor said during the earnings announcement. He pointed to institutional interest and Bitcoin’s position above its 200-week moving average. Bitcoin Price and ETF Outflows Bitcoin traded at about $77,804 on Sunday, up 0.45% over 24 hours. It had dropped to around $76,100 after the October 29 Binance hack. Strategy’s September 30 statement listed 847,666 Bitcoin at a total cost of $63.95 billion. That works out to $75,437 per coin, about 3.1% below Sunday’s price. This figure does not include October purchases. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, according to Bitfinex. The month ended with about $516 million in net outflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $233.7 million in withdrawals that day, according to Farside Investors. Fidelity’s Bitcoin fund lost $201 million, and the ARK 21Shares fund lost $129.5 million. Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund saw $53.3 million in outflows, and Bitwise’s fund lost $25.7 million. The selling erased $440.8 million in inflows from the previous four trading days. BlackRock’s fund still ended October with about $932 million in net inflows. Bitfinex estimated Bitcoin was trading 7.5% below the average ETF investor’s cost. Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock closed Friday at $99.13, down 0.83%. The company holds $5.07 billion in dollar assets, which it says cover 3.4 years of dividend and interest payments. If Strategy confirms a new purchase, the filing would show how many coins it bought, the price paid and how the deal was funded.
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Over $150M+ in token supply is entering circulation this November. Token unlocks trigger sharp liquidity shifts, market maker hedging, and supply absorption. If you're managing positions this month, here are the top 5 largest token unlocks in November 2026: 1️⃣ crypto-com-chain:native (Cronos) — $60.05M 🗓️ Nov 18, 2026 (in 15d) 📦 1.17 Billion CRO | 1.18% of supply ⚡ Projected monthly release 2️⃣ $ENA (Ethena) — $49.03M 🔥 [IN 2 DAYS] 🗓️ Nov 5, 2026 📦 267.19 Million ENA | 1.78% of supply ⚡ Projected quarterly release 3️⃣ $PUMP (Pump.fun) — $20.94M 🗓️ Nov 19, 2026 (in 16d) 📦 4.98 Billion PUMP | 0.60% of supply ⚡ Streamflow Vesting 4️⃣ $GRASS (Grass) — $13.50M 🗓️ Nov 29, 2026 (in 26d) 📦 22.47 Million GRASS | 2.25% of supply ⚡ Projected monthly release 5️⃣ $APT (Aptos) — $7.16M 🗓️ Nov 14, 2026 (in 11d) 📦 11.36 Million APT | 0.95% of supply ⚡ Projected monthly release Total November influx across these 5 alone: $150.68 Million. Don't trade blind into incoming dilution events. On CEXAID, we track on-chain cliff and linear vesting schedules in real time across the entire market, giving founders and traders the data they need before liquidity shifts. Monitor live unlocks and upcoming schedules: 📊 cexaid.com/unlocks 🌐 cexaid.com
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Appearance isn’t evidence. A polished document can still be altered. A convincing video can still be manipulated. Looking authentic and having a verifiable record are two different things. UHRATE brings both questions into focus: • Analyse the content: AI-powered checks assess signs of manipulation, deepfakes and AI generation. • Establish a record: Seal a file’s unique digital fingerprint on the blockchain with a timestamp. • Check the match: Use Lookup to compare a file against its sealed record. Each serves a different purpose. AI analysis helps assess the content; a blockchain record helps establish that an exact file existed at a recorded time. Neither should be confused with a guarantee that every claim inside the file is true. For teams handling important documents and digital media, that distinction matters. Don’t stop at “Does it look real?” Ask, “What can we verify?” Explore UHRATE: uhrate.online #UHRATE
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Notable Funding Rounds of the Past Week⚡️ @Kalshi — $1B @HIVEDigitalTech — $129M (Debt) @PhotonPay — $40M @hyperbolic_labs — $30M @luxor — $16M @0xPredicate — $8M @cancore_io — $7.2M $1.2B raised across 20 rounds this week. Kalshi lands $1B Series G led by @sequoia, PhotonPay closes a $40M Series C.
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Harfinance retweeted
Walmart Blocks Its Stock From OKX-ICE Tokenized Trading Venue Walmart, Eli Lilly, Cigna, Carniva,l and Arcos Dorados objected to trading of their shares on the planned OKX-ICE tokenized stock venue, bringing the total to 38. In brief Walmart, Eli Lilly, Cigna Group, Carnival and Arcos Dorados joined the list of companies objecting to OKXICE TSV, according to its Oct. 28 notice. The total has climbed from nine on Oct. 15 to 38, broadening the pushback into retail, health care and travel. Under the SEC’s innovation exemption, a timely objection bars the venue from listing a third-party tokenized version of a company’s stock. for more instant new visist cexaid.com/news
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In Web3 capital formation, warm institutional reputation and aligned incentives are what get term sheets signed. Through the CEXAID VC & Investor Network, we connect high-conviction Web3 founders directly with verified capital partners: • Direct Introductions: Access vetted crypto venture funds, Web3 family offices, and active angel syndicates. • Pitch Deck Refinement: Sharpen token utility narratives, revenue mechanics, and competitive differentiation to institutional standards. • Strategic Structuring: Protect founder equity with balanced round caps, cliff allocations, and sustainable FDV modeling. Stop chasing mercenary capital. Build with institutional partners who back your long-term roadmap. Connect with our capital network: cexaid.com/services @cexaidfunding #VCFunding
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Binance Wallet Outflows Widen to Three Accounts in Suspected Hack Records show 823 million USDC left Hot Wallet 34, while Binance 14 was swept again 40 minutes after its initial outflow. Ethereum records show large outflows from three Binance-labeled wallets on Oct. 29, widening the suspected security incident beyond Binance 14 to include Binance 16 and Hot Wallet 34. Analyst @mattiascaricato estimated the Ethereum-side total at about $3.5 billion. Binance said it was investigating a potential security issue and, in a 5:29 p.m. ET statement, said: “User funds are completely safe.” The exchange did not confirm a hack in that statement. The risk extended beyond the initial transfers: Binance 14 sent another 1,699.92 ETH to the same collection address exactly 40 minutes after its first large sweep. The later transaction used the same delegated code, showing that the wallet's asset-moving permission remained usable after the initial outflow.
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Harfinance retweeted
Crypto market crashing after the hack. $SOL falls under $96 $XRP falls under $1.25 $ETH falls under $2,250 $BTC falls under $78,500 Over $600,000,000 in leveraged crypto long positions have been liquidated in the past 30 minutes. This is the time to avoid fomo
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ECB’s Lane says AI has a limited effect on euro area inflation The ECB's chief economist sees AI reshaping workplaces and bond yields, but barely moving the price index that guides policy Artificial intelligence may be rewriting job descriptions across Europe. According to the European Central Bank’s chief economist, it is not rewriting the inflation numbers. Philip R. Lane says AI-related price pressures have a limited effect on headline inflation in the euro area. For a central bank whose main job is keeping prices stable, that is a meaningful line to draw. Why AI barely moves the price index The core of Lane’s argument comes down to how the euro area measures inflation. The ECB tracks prices through the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, or HICP. Think of it as a giant shopping basket where each item gets a weight based on how much households actually spend on it. The goods most closely tied to AI, such as smartphones, electronics and vehicles, carry low weights in that basket. Even if their prices shift because of AI, the overall index barely notices. Lane has worked through these themes in a series of speeches across 2026, including addresses in March, April, July, August and October. The consistent thread has been caution about drawing large inflation conclusions from AI hype. He does flag one possible upward pressure: energy. The computing power behind AI demands a lot of electricity, and that energy demand could exert slight upward pressure on prices. The operative word is slight. Major inflationary effects from AI have yet to materialize, according to the ECB’s analysis. Workers adopted AI fast. The economy has not caught up yet. The adoption numbers are striking. ECB surveys show the share of workers using AI on the job rose from 26% in 2024 to 52%. Companies are experimenting too. According to the ECB, 64% of firms report using AI either experimentally or moderately. Yet Lane notes there is currently no apparent aggregate impact on employment, productivity or prices. Lane’s broader framing puts AI in historical context as a technology with the potential to bolster output growth in the euro area. He sounds optimistic about long-term productivity gains while remaining cautious about what is happening right now. The bigger channel: bond yields If AI is not pushing up consumer prices much, where is it showing up? According to the ECB’s analysis, the answer is in long-term interest rates. Global AI investment has driven a rise in long-term interest rates. That spills over into the euro area, tightening financial conditions for borrowers there. The ECB characterizes this as a moderate tightening factor rather than a significant driver of inflation. In fact, the ECB’s models associate the rise in long-term yields with lower medium-term economic activity and inflation. That is the counterintuitive bit. The AI boom, often pitched as an inflationary force, may actually be working in the opposite direction in Europe through the financing channel. What this means for policy and markets For the ECB, Lane’s analysis suggests AI is not a reason to lean harder against inflation. If anything, the tightening from higher global yields does some of the central bank’s work for it. Until then, the things to watch are fairly clear. Look for any change in the ECB’s language on AI and productivity, survey data on workplace adoption, energy price trends tied to computing demand, and the direction of global long-term yields. For now, the ECB’s chief economist is telling markets a measured story. AI is reshaping how Europeans work, but on the central bank’s inflation dashboard it remains a small blip, with its biggest macro footprint showing up in the cost of money rather than the cost of goods. get more instant news at cexaid.com/news
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Kalshi Raises $1B Series G at $40B Valuation as Crypto Volume Reaches $140B Annualized Event contracts now carry a $40 billion price tag. Kalshi, the U.S. prediction-market exchange, said on October 29 that it closed “a $1 billion Series G at a $40 billion post-money valuation, co-led by Wellington and Sequoia,” a raise that lands the venue squarely in the middle of the regulated-trading economy. The number is large, but the syndicate is the story: a pension-and-endowment asset manager and one of venture capital’s most durable names are now underwriting a platform that runs sports, politics, crypto, commodities and perpetual futures under one roof. The round moves Kalshi well past its prediction-market origins. The company said “our overall business’s annualized trading volume now exceeds $1 trillion,” reported more than $1 billion in non-sports annualized revenue, and disclosed crypto trading volume that has reached $140 billion annualized. Those figures place event contracts at the point where regulated derivatives, retail speculation and digital assets are beginning to share the same order book. A $40 Billion Marker for the Exchange Trade Kalshi framed the ambition as “building the next-generation financial exchange,” and the investor list backs that claim. Beyond Wellington and Sequoia, the Series G drew in Baillie Gifford, Stripes, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, Layer Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Sequoia Global Equities, CapitalG, Hudson River Trading and Balyasny Asset Management. Hudson River Trading and Balyasny are the names to watch. Both are quantitative and multi-strategy firms that make markets for a living rather than writing venture checks on the side. Their presence is a signal that the desks which actually trade for institutions now treat event contracts as market structure, not as a novelty. The valuation arithmetic is demanding. At $40 billion against the $1 billion in non-sports annualized revenue Kalshi disclosed, the round prices the company at roughly 40 times that revenue line. A multiple that steep only holds if the non-sports businesses keep compounding at the rate the announcement implies, quarter after quarter. Crypto and Perpetuals Are the Growth Engine The disclosure shows where the compounding is coming from. “Crypto trading volume has reached $140 billion annualized,” the company said, while its perpetual futures business has reached $83 billion in volume and more than 500,000 traders in the few months since launch. Put those figures together and crypto is now about 14% of the $1 trillion annualized volume base, while perpetual futures add roughly another 8%. That perps figure works out to around $166,000 in notional per trader, an average that suggests real size rather than a spray of small accounts. Commodities generated more than $100 million in annualized trading fees in three months, politics has passed $8 billion in annualized volume, and the international business, live in more than 140 countries, is approaching $100 million in annualized fees. The take rate implied by the disclosure is thin but exchange-like. One billion dollars of non-sports revenue against a $1 trillion volume base works out to about one basis point for every ten dollars traded. That is a market-maker’s economics, not a sportsbook’s margin, and it only works at scale. Kalshi is not the only venue chasing this flow, but it is the one holding a CFTC license for the book. That distinction is the quiet thesis of the round: a regulated book of event contracts and perpetuals can attract the flow that rivals running the same category on crypto rails cannot, even if it costs more to operate. The $140 billion crypto figure is Kalshi’s evidence that the compliant route scales. Sports Still Carries the Floor The countercase sits inside the same announcement. Kalshi said sports “brought millions of people” to the platform and “helped establish deep liquidity,” and the company still says it accounts for “over 75% of prediction market trading volume.” The non-sports businesses that justify a $40 billion mark are measured in months, not years. Commodities, crypto, perpetuals and the international business are all scaling from a low base. A $100 million fee run in commodities and an $83 billion perpetuals book are real, but neither line is yet large enough to carry a $40 billion valuation on its own. The round is a bet that the sum of those businesses, not any single one, becomes the general-purpose exchange the company describes. There is also the unresolved question of how the sports base weathers regulation. U.S. courts and state regulators have already tested Kalshi’s sports markets, and the company’s push into politics and economics invites scrutiny from an entirely different set of agencies. That is the risk embedded in the valuation that no quarterly metric resolves. Three Regulators, One Venue The growth Kalshi is selling is precisely the growth regulators are now examining. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has moved to fold event contracts into its swap rules, a change that would pull Kalshi and rival Polymarket into a compliance regime originally built for derivatives dealers. Single-stock perpetual futures add a securities dimension on top of that, and the sports book sits under state gaming law. The venue is effectively triangulated across three regulatory regimes at once. Kalshi’s own data shows why that matters: in September roughly 500 entities were active on the platform, and entities other than market makers represented about 25% of total trading volume. That is a double-edged fact. On one side, it proves the product has moved beyond retail speculation and is attracting the institutional participants that a $40 billion valuation requires. On the other, it means event contracts now draw exactly the kind of counterparty that prompts a regulator to write rules, and the CFTC’s swap proposal treats that migration as a reason for more oversight rather than less. What the Capital Must Now Deliver The announced roadmap is specific. Kalshi said it will build indices with S&P, launch single-stock perpetual futures and compute markets, and expand in Latin America and Europe. It is also investing in institutional sales and distribution, the plumbing that hedge funds and proprietary firms demand before they commit meaningful size. That institutional push already has precedent on the platform. Cantor Fitzgerald opened Kalshi’s prediction markets to institutional clients, and the partnership list now spans Interactive Brokers, Marex, Clear Street, Nasdaq and Stripe. The next observable test is whether the new capital converts those relationships into sustained non-sports volume. Single-stock perpetual futures and compute markets extend the same logic into two new asset classes. The first lets traders express a view on a single equity around the clock, and the second prices the cost of compute, the input that has become the scarce resource of the artificial-intelligence cycle. Both are ways to turn a macro force into a tradable contract. The partnership list is a distribution map rather than a vanity slide. Interactive Brokers and Wealthsimple reach retail brokerage accounts, Nasdaq and S&P provide index and data infrastructure, and PayPal and Block reach payments. Each relationship widens the venue’s surface without Kalshi having to acquire those customers itself. Kalshi did not say whether the round precedes a public listing, and a $40 billion private valuation raises that question on its own. The more immediate measures are quieter: whether crypto and perpetuals keep compounding, whether the CFTC’s rulemaking changes the economics of event contracts, and whether indices and single-stock products attract the liquidity that the valuation already assumes. cexaid.com/news
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The biggest lie in Web3? That you need a multi-million-dollar war chest and insider VC gatekeepers just to launch a project. You don’t. Most founders stall because traditional launchpads demand $50,000 upfront just to review a pitch deck, and dev agencies charge fortunes for basic smart contracts. At CEXAID, we tore down the gatekeepers. All you need is conviction and code: 1. 0 USDT Token Generator Deploy production-ready BEP-20 or custom tax tokens directly from your Web3 wallet onto BNB Chain. You pay standard network gas only—zero platform fee. 2. 20 USDT Private Sale Deployment Launch an institutional private sale round for an accessible 20 USDT deployment fee. Connect instantly to thousands of pre-approved, KYC-verified investors waiting to back new rounds. 3. Day-1 Scaling Suite Don't worry about where liquidity comes from next. We guide you through CEX listing readiness, connect you with audited market makers, and make direct intros to Tier-1 venture funds. Stop waiting for permission. Build your token, raise your round, and scale globally. Launch your project on CEXAID: cexaid.com/launchpad @cexaidfunding #BuildOnBNB #BNBChain
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Circle: The Winning Stablecoin Addresses A Fundamental Consumer Problem A senior executive at Circle underscored that the “winning stablecoin” will be a matter of simply being the easiest to use. It should also solve the fundamental consumer problem. “Everyone thinks about stablecoins as a financial instrument,” Nikhil Chandhok, Chief Product and Technology Officer of Circle, started his recent interview with Future Nexus. “I think about it as a consumer problem.” Chandhok has been with Circle since 2022, but before his current role, he held key positions at Meta, Google, and YouTube. He led Meta’s AR Glasses project, Google’s wearable ARs, and YouTube’s product development in its early years. The CPTO highlighted that money is a basic human need. Society wouldn’t have evolved to what it is now without it. Circle’s success in the stablecoin space came from focusing on the essential drivers of consumer demand for money. Chandhok emphasized that the trend is driven primarily by accessibility, most often via phone and in US dollars. Circle Reflects on the USDC Stablecoin’s Success The Circle exec claimed that most people in the US can’t grasp the dollar’s importance for people overseas. He explained that the currency is a vital inflation hedge and a way to simplify business transactions. The company’s flagship stablecoin, the USDC, exports the US dollar, reinforcing its position of primacy. Its availability in more than 100 countries lets people abroad save, send remittances, and make payments. All of this can be done without abandoning local currencies. Chandhok pointed out that the USDC’s success is primarily anchored on its simplicity. He noted that people don’t care about the product’s architecture or technicalities. What matters is that it delivers value. US dollar-based stablecoins like USDC help international users who used to struggle to hold dollars. Its compatibility across various networks unlocks instant payments without intermediary risk and with the ability to scale globally. Next, Chandhok attributed USDC’s exponentially rising adoption to its network benefits. For him, every market participant benefits from its growth, as more can become senders and receivers at the same time. AI Accelerating Stablecoin Use Meanwhile, Chandhok believes AI (artificial intelligence) agents will be instrumental in boosting stablecoins. Its programmability puts it at the center of the agentic era, allowing autonomous systems to execute transactions seamlessly without human intervention. He stressed that someone starting from scratch now can quickly drive adoption by leveraging a series of agents. “If that becomes a factor in building companies, and I believe that to be true, then these autonomous agents will need the ability to handle money,” Chandhok added.
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CEXAID has backed @Tasqium with $300,000 in early-stage funding. Tasqium is building a Web3 community rewards platform focused on missions and verified participation. Proud to support its next stage of growth.
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How many times have you missed a promising seed allocation because you were stuck waiting on a 3-day KYC queue? We eliminated that friction. With the CEXAID Investor Pass: • You verify your wallet once. • You unlock immediate access to every current and upcoming private sale on CEXAID. • You contribute USDT directly from your connected Web3 wallet with zero intermediaries. One approval. Direct on-chain allocations. Instant peace of mind. Apply for investor clearance: cexaid.com/launchpad/apply-i… @cexaidfunding #BNBChain
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Ripple has a national trust bank. RLUSD still has a different issuer Ripple has said its proposed national trust bank received final federal approval on October 26, giving the company a federally supervised institution to manage the assets behind RLUSD. The stablecoin will still be issued by Standard Custody & Trust Company, a separate Ripple subsidiary supervised by New York state. One token, two affiliated institutions and an outside reserve custodian now sit in the payment structure that a holder must understand. Summary Ripple says the OCC granted final approval to Ripple National Trust Bank after preliminary conditional approval in December 2025. Standard Custody & Trust Company remains RLUSD’s New York-regulated issuer, while the new bank is assigned reserve management and trusteeship. Ripple’s October 22 transparency snapshot lists $2.3828 billion circulating and $2.5280 billion in reserve funds, figures from the same date. Ripple’s user terms restrict direct redemption to eligible customers under a separate agreement; holding a token alone does not open that channel. BNY says its October 27 expansion adds XRP and RLUSD institutional custody while direct bank-facilitated RLUSD minting remains under exploration.
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Bitcoin slips back below $85K as ETF demand fades Glassnode said Bitcoin has returned below the $84K-$85K band as ETF inflows cooled and volatility dropped to summer 2023 levels before the Fed decision. Bitcoin has slipped back below the $84,000-$85,000 band that briefly gave way around its September high, with Glassnode saying the move comes as ETF demand has faded, volatility has compressed and sellers have remained relatively restrained. The report, published Oct. 28, 2026, framed the market as range-bound ahead of the Federal Reserve decision later that day. ETF flows and trading volume have weakened Glassnode said most of the $653 million that flowed into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 19 had already left again by Oct. 22, including $540 million out that day, leaving just $67 million net inflows over the prior two weeks. It also said ETF trading volume has been thin since May, averaging about $1.3 billion a day and falling to about $700 million on Oct. 23, one of the quietest sessions of the year. On Glassnode's reading, that leaves the funds contributing little incremental demand at current prices. The report said bitcoin was trading just under the U.S. Spot ETF Cost Basis of $81.5K, the average price paid by ETF holders. It added that a daily close back above that level would put the average ETF holder back in profit. Support and resistance have narrowed According to Glassnode, long-term holders own roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85K and $118K, with more than half of those coins acquired above the current price. That creates overhead supply if price recovers toward the band, the report said. On the downside, the densest short-term holder cluster sits near $77K, with another group around $64K from the 2026 lows. Glassnode also pointed to bid support on Binance spot books shifting lower. It said the $80K bids were swept on Oct. 24 and had not refilled, while bids at $78K-$79K had grown to about $42 million from about $24 million in mid-October. The report described that area as the first likely zone where buyers may step in on a dip. Volatility has compressed as losses shrink One-month realized volatility has fallen to about 25%, according to Glassnode, roughly back to summer 2023 levels and below its usual range over the past year. The report said bitcoin has been calmer than this on only about 5% of days since 2015. It also noted that the last two volatility lows, 18% in August 2023 and 22% in August 2026, each came just before a sharp move. Glassnode said holders have been realizing smaller losses on each dip since August. At the August low, realized losses exceeded profits by about $630 million in a day, while the Oct. 24 sweep produced a largest daily net loss of about $27 million. The report cautioned that one Oct. 22 spike in realized profit and loss was driven by an internal transfer and should not be treated as selling pressure. Macro backdrop remains cautious The report said the U.S. Leading Economic Index has stalled and U.S. Consumer Confidence has fallen 7.1 points over two months to 48.1, close to its lowest level since 2009. It linked that backdrop to the Fed decision on Oct. 28, noting that another rate increase would further tighten conditions for risk assets including bitcoin. Glassnode concluded that bitcoin remains quiet and range-bound, with support below at the Binance bid wall and the True Market Mean near $77.9K, while resistance sits at $84K-$85K. The report said a daily close above $85K would be the first step toward restoring the upper band as support, while a close below the True Market Mean would shift attention to the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $75.8K. The timing of the next catalyst beyond the Fed decision was not specified in the source material.
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