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🇱🇧 | Curious about history, geopol, econ, tech, culture, religion, and the Levant. “Where liberty dwells, there is my country.” 🗽🏛️
Mare Nostrum
Joined December 2017
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Many of you have heard about Lebanon’s golden era of the 1950s and 1960s, before the country descended into civil war.
You have also probably heard critiques of that period, namely that it was mostly a mirage in which a narrow clique of mostly Christian urban elites prospered while the rest of the country wallowed in poverty.
But what if that was not entirely true? What if this Lebanese prosperity was more widely shared than often assumed, and was, in fact, not solely a Christian story?
Here is a Druze perspective on pre-war Lebanon and a commemoration of some of the great - and, like much about pre-war Lebanon, often forgotten - Lebanese Druze individuals who made outsized contributions to Lebanon’s Belle Époque. (🧵)
T. 📚☕️ retweeted
The second largest trade union in France is calling for a general strike in November. We are broke and yields on French treasury bonds have been steadily rising for months, but they are demanding more spending across the board. I don't think we're going to make it to be honest.
Back to the usual Middle East commentary: I knew something was off about all those analyses from a couple of months ago that completely dismissed Hijri.
What did I tell you? His project may still fail, of course, but he’s clearly not stupid, nor is his defiance of Damascus simply a bluff.
(Moral of the story: Never doubt my analyses and predictions! 😅)
There is something that does not add up.
Firstly, Hijri, whatever one thinks of him, is not stupid. If you look at the way he has consolidated power, rallied public support to his side, and survived for a year as the de facto political leader of Suwayda, it would be hard to dismiss him as stupid.
If he really is as weak and isolated as we are led to believe, how is he able to maintain his resolutely defiant stance and push increasingly scandalous pro-Israel rhetoric? No one can deny that the man is ballsy, but - and pardon the crude language - no one has balls that big. He would not be keeping this bluff going for over a year if he had nothing to back it up with (or it seems rather unlikely, at least).
And there’s another interesting tidbit: The New York Times published a feature on Suwayda earlier this month in which it stated that the National Guard is now a 28,000-strong militia. How do you grow your militia from a few thousand members to allegedly 28,000 in less than a year if you are weak, isolated, and lacking in support?
So could it be that the support is actually very deep and entrenched, but largely clandestine, and that what is being communicated to Elizabeth and other analysts is simply PR for the consumption of all of us NPCs?
That seems more believable to me… 🤷♂️
For context, this was my post from mid-August commenting on the NYT article.
I would recommend reading the article as well, as it offers a good picture of what life in Suwayda has been like in the year since the massacres.
The New York Times released a new feature on Suwayda earlier this month, following two trips by its journalists to the province and a series of interviews they conducted there. The piece focuses on life in the province in the year since the massacres. (This is the second such feature, following an earlier one from October 2025 that focused more on investigating the massacres themselves.)
The photos they took of funerals, destroyed shrines, burned homes, and displaced families in makeshift shelters are striking (some reshared below), but they should not be new or surprising to anyone who has followed closely what happened there in July 2025. (That said, greater attention to the enormity of the crimes is always welcome.)
What I found most interesting in this piece was their report that the National Guard is now a 28,000-strong militia. This is the first time I have seen such a figure in print. All previous articles covering the National Guard in some depth, both around the time it was formed a year ago and in the following months, indicated that it had only a few thousand members.
If the National Guard’s ranks have indeed swelled to 28,000, that would be both a sign of the seriousness of Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri’s ambitions and of the effort he and those around him have made to build up their organizational capacity over the past year. It would also be a good indication of strong financial and logistical support from Israel and possibly other states, which has enabled the organization to grow to such a scale.
The Druze may be the ones facing an existential crisis and an uphill struggle to survive as a community of any relevance in their homeland, but Damascus made a major, unforced, and hubristic error in trying to subjugate the Druze by force last year while cultivating an environment of deep animosity toward them within Syrian society. The Druze of Suwayda went from being a patriotic community that took pride in its role in opposing French rule and helping build the modern Syrian state to one that now increasingly defines its identity in explicit opposition to Syria, while turning the rocky mountain massif that looms over the Hawran plain into a large, militarized natural fortress.
The consequences of that error will reverberate for years and decades to come. It has turned southern Syria into a major geopolitical battleground - one that, if the wind does not blow in favor of the new Syrian regime, may even threaten Damascus’s position as Syria’s political and economic capital, given its proximity to such a deeply contested region.
For those curious: My best read of the situation, judging by Hijri’s consistent defiance, is that Israeli support has probably been fairly continuous over the past year, rather than having meaningfully waned at any point, but that the matter was so sensitive and highly classified that public messaging was deliberately misleading.
So why make this support more visible all of a sudden, alerting and alarming the Syrians in the process? Who knows, but it might have something to do with Netanyahu having an election to win in about 5 days. 🤷♂️
T. 📚☕️ retweeted
For those who fantasise looters as great revolutionaries
The revolutionaries of 1830, 1832 (the "Misérables") 1848 executed pillagers
The insurgents even waived flags indicating "Respect for properties; death to thieves."
Not your salon or twitter revolutionaries
Il y a un énorme malentendu sur la tradition révolutionnaire française, qu'on évoque dès qu'il y a aujourd'hui une voiture brûlée ou des boutiques Nike dévalisées comme si c'était une continuité historique. Les insurrections parisiennes au XIXe siècle n'étaient pas des moments de pillage débridé !
Les révolutionnaires de 1830 et 1848, notamment, n'aimaient pas les pilleurs et s'organisaient spontanément pour les mettre hors d'état de nuire. En 1830, Louis Blanc rapporte que "les propriétés, au mois de juillet, ne coururent (...) pas le moindre risque", décrit des surveillances spontanées autour des objets de valeur, et rapporte même que des voleurs, pris sur le fait, furent fusillés par les insurgés ; "le peuple se surveilla donc parfaitement lui-même".
En février 1848 pendant la prise du Palais-Royal par la foule, Marie d'Agoult raconte que "des postes d'hommes du peuple (...) exerçaient une police rigoureuse à la sortie du palais, afin de prévenir ou de châtier toute tentative de vol". Des drapeaux portaient l'inscription anti-pillage "Respect aux propriétés ; mort aux voleurs".
Il y eut bien sûr beaucoup de morts dans les affrontements entre l'armée et les insurgés, et des dégâts lors de la prise de bâtiments très symboliques comme les Tuileries (et encore, plus mesurés qu'on ne le pense, là aussi parce que les émeutiers s'organisèrent pour pouvoir par exemple rendre intactes à la Reine ses laines et ses soies à broder !). Mais le pillage pour le pillage, les destructions aléatoires, ne faisaient certainement pas partie de leur environnement.
Louis Blanc, Histoire de dix ans, tome I, chapitre V (1842)
Marie d'Agoult, Histoire de la Révolution de 1848, tome II, chapitre XXII.
Traditionally pro-Assad, pro-Hezbollah Lebanese Druze politician Wiam Wahhab endorses Netanyahu, then European right-wing parties, all in the span of a single month.
Wahhab is truly the final boss of the horseshoe theory. 😭
This person is young, appears to be upper-middle-class, and lives in a major city. His default political disposition is almost certainly left-liberal.
If this is how he feels, and how the neighbors applauding him feel, you can imagine how many other urbane, traditionally left-liberal Western Europeans feel deep down.
You might not see public anger expressed like this outside Italy, as Italians tend to be less politically correct than other Western Europeans, but you may see it expressed in other ways: at the ballot box, through “white flight” from mixed neighborhoods, etc.
I, for one, certainly don’t blame them, and I would feel exactly the same way if I were in their shoes. (I’m already quite upset as it is.)
WOW! Young Italian delivered a furious, emotional speech after violent riots erupted in his city Milan, caused by third-world invaders.
“I can’t stand these people anymore. I know so many people who come here from all over the world, work hard, and are already out working at five in the morning.
If you come here and destroy my country, you’ll be sent back to your own country kicking and screaming! I’ve had enough of this bullshit. I can’t take it anymore!
And then they come here, and everything is supposed to be fine? Well, if they rape my daughter or my sister, then we’ll talk! Let’s see Ashline come here and say all this bullshit to our faces!
I can’t stand these people anymore. I’m 23 years old, and I want to live in my own city! And we have to be the ones to start. We have to be the ones to rise up and fight back! My city doesn’t even exist anymore. My grandfather, my great-grandfather—they built all of this.”
That said, it will be interesting to see whether the memory of these riots proves fleeting or endures in the collective consciousness of Europeans, eventually shaping European politics.
Personally, I imagine it will be difficult for people to forget what happened anytime soon. While these were not the first riots these countries have experienced, this was the first time something like this happened on such a scale in major urban centers and, crucially, was carried out primarily by people of immigrant origin. (Whether citizens or not, we are naturally perceived as “guests” by native Europeans, which further intensifies the sense of repulsion toward what happened.)
Social media also means that people, especially younger generations, have access to raw, unfiltered footage of the events. This makes it much harder to impose a narrative that downplays or minimizes what happened.
What effect has this weekend’s mob violence had on the polling for the 2027 🇫🇷 presidential election?
Answer: a big boost for Marine Le Pen
She is now polling at 34-38% in the first round
Mélenchon in strongest position to secure the other run-off place
source: @IfopOpinion
Here is another sad case: a pharmacist and mother of three who poured her life into her pharmacy, only to see her livelihood destroyed in a matter of hours.
Judging by her last name, Audélia is presumably of North African Jewish heritage, and her family likely immigrated to France several decades ago, fleeing the growing hostility toward Jews in the newly independent states of North Africa. They would have been part of a large migration wave that saw some 800,000 Jews leave their homelands across the Middle East and North Africa over the course of a few decades.
Like many French Jews, she presumably keeps a low profile about her background and has simply tried to earn an honest living and raise her children in a country that has, frankly, become increasingly dangerous for its Jewish citizens over the decades. Jewish schools and synagogues are now under round-the-clock police protection following numerous attacks, and even this past weekend, a small synagogue was ransacked. (As far as I know, it was the only house of worship targeted.)
Now add to this broader climate of insecurity the trauma of watching her livelihood destroyed before her eyes, and the question becomes unavoidable: what must she be thinking now, and what will she do next? Will she even want to stay in France and attempt to rebuild after all this?
I don’t know. But I sincerely hope that she, like all the affected business owners, can get back on her feet and find the courage to keep building a life in a country that is as much hers as it is any other citizen’s.
Solidarity with Audélia, with Youssef, with Sohal, and with the thousands of other business owners from all ethnic and religious backgrounds affected across France.
T. 📚☕️ retweeted
Centre-left pro-EU French presidential candidate Raphaël Glucksmann who condemned violent riots and looting as « an attack on the French Republic » is up 7 points, almost even with extreme left fomenter of chaos Mélenchon for second place after Le Pen. 🇫🇷 has 2 rounds of voting
Here is another horrific anecdote: Youssef, a long-time Parisian business owner approaching retirement, lost everything he had spent 26 years building.
He said he tried to reason with the large group of people who had come to loot his store, but they were too numerous and simply not amenable to reason. Hundreds eventually forced their way inside, leaving him to watch helplessly from the sidelines as his shop was completely ransacked. He suffered losses of €365,000 and watched a lifetime of work disappear in a matter of hours.
Honestly, what happened in Paris and across France last weekend can best be described as a kind of “class-based pogrom,” unfolding against a backdrop of weeks of anti-government agitation by far-left groups, including La France Insoumise’s political machine.
This agitation helped create the climate of unrest that culminated in large numbers of immigrant-origin youth from the banlieues targeting the petite bourgeoisie of nearby urban centres, many of whose members are themselves from immigrant backgrounds. Thousands of small businesses across city centres were consequently looted and vandalized, destroying countless families’ livelihoods in the process.
I do not know whether the government or insurers can, or will, compensate victims for the full extent of the damage, now estimated at as much as €1 billion or more nationwide, but what happened remains deeply scandalous and profoundly upsetting.
🇫🇷 PARIS : 365 000 EUROS DE DÉGÂTS ! Youssef, gérant du magasin Foot Max depuis 26 ans, a vu sa boutique entièrement pillée et saccagée par des centaines de personnes, boulevard de Magenta.
Le commerçant estime ses pertes à 365 000 euros, après 26 années d’activité. (@20Minutes)
On a more personal note, I also find it especially infuriating that the blowback will now be “socialized,” with the consequences borne not only by the perpetrators but, more likely than not, by people of immigrant backgrounds more broadly, including those like Youssef, who were among the principal victims.
I can tell you that the anger over what happened was palpable among my immigrant friends, especially those of Arab and Muslim backgrounds. Most have worked hard to build successful careers and establish themselves in the professional class in France and across Europe. They are understandably furious that the actions of others may now fuel greater suspicion and resentment toward them, through no fault of their own.
T. 📚☕️ retweeted
This mindset of entitlement and greed, built on a foundation of envy and hate, is incompatible with Western values.
Notice how it never crosses his mind to work for what others have earned through their own hard work.
T. 📚☕️ retweeted
I was born in France but grew up mostly in Switzerland and London, where I attended the Lycée Français. In 1969, a year after the student uprising, I enrolled at the Sorbonne in Paris.
It was an extraordinary time, but a frustrating one for a student who wanted to learn. Too many classes had become forums for political and ideological debates rather than places of academic instruction. After two years, I had enough. I dropped out, bought a one-way ticket to Brazil, and ended up staying for 15 years.
I have watched France closely ever since. It remains one of the world’s most beautiful countries, with extraordinary talent, culture, scientific excellence and entrepreneurial creativity. I love France and always will.
But over the decades, I have watched a country increasingly constrained by its own institutions. Layers of taxation, regulation, bureaucracy and permitting have made it harder to start businesses, take risks, create jobs and build wealth. Too much energy is devoted to protecting what exists rather than creating what comes next.
The result is an economy that struggles to generate the growth and opportunities its people deserve, particularly its younger generations. Instead of looking forward, much of the national debate revolves around how to divide existing wealth rather than how to create more of it.
This is not a question of left versus right. Governments of every political persuasion can fall into the same trap. It is about the cumulative effect of policies and institutions that, however well-intentioned, gradually discourage initiative and risk-taking.
There is one statistic that I find particularly revealing.
In 2025, approximately $320 billion of venture capital was invested in the United States, compared with about $8.4 billion in France.
That’s nearly 40 times more in absolute dollars, almost 8 times more per capita, and 4 times more as a percentage of GDP.
Venture capital is certainly not the only measure of innovation or economic vitality. But it is an important indicator of a society’s willingness to take risks, back entrepreneurs and invest in its future.
America has built an extraordinary ecosystem for turning ideas into companies, companies into industries, and industries into jobs and prosperity. This is one of our greatest competitive advantages.
But we should never assume that this advantage is permanent.
Excessive regulation, poorly designed taxation, bureaucratic obstacles and political short-termism can gradually undermine the conditions that allow innovation and entrepreneurship to flourish. The damage doesn’t happen overnight. It accumulates over decades, until a country discovers that it has become much better at protecting the past than building the future.
I worry about France because I love it. And I worry about America because I don’t want us to make the same mistakes.
Prosperity is not something a country inherits forever. Every generation has to create it anew.
Let’s not take America’s capacity to innovate, take risks and build for the future for granted.
The testimony of this Paris-based business owner, originally from South Asia, is devastating. (His name suggests a Muslim background, most likely Bangladeshi, though his country of origin is not mentioned.)
They looted his entire store and completely trashed the place, even destroying his administrative documents. The next day, they returned to tell him not to bother contacting his insurance company or repairing the damage, because they would destroy the store again next Saturday.
He estimates the damage at more than €150,000.
This degree of cruelty may be difficult to fathom, but I have seen reporting on tensions between upwardly mobile Asian immigrants, often from countries like China, India, and Bangladesh, who work hard and end up building successful businesses.
These Asian immigrants often live in the same disadvantaged neighborhoods and suburbs as the perpetrators of the looting, most of whom are from North and West Africa.
The fact that some Asian immigrants achieve economic success relatively quickly, despite arriving later, can fuel resentment and envy among those who are left behind - not because of discrimination or other structural barriers (as they like to claim), but because they are unwilling to put in the work themselves.
