Pinned Tweet
we live in a simulation hence all of life as we know it - is just *code*
stop calling “coding” a penetrated market
forest from the trees
Hemingway Capital retweeted
Surprise 1: Anthropic acquired a one-person biotech
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Surprise 2: that person is me
Surprise 3: I’m here to tell you all about it
Yes, this is what you think it is; after 6 yrs of increasingly loose anonymity: the Professor Oak reveal post
…and yes, it has gotten so boring around here that I’m literally doxxing myself to spice up the timeline
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Ok, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Cody Tranbarger. I mostly tweet, but occasionally find time to dabble in drug dev & starting/building biotechs. My past lives span the VC, crossover, startup continuum; Prof Oak has been my way of keeping a digital foot in those worlds, despite having my physical feet planted elsewhere.
The past 18 mo, ‘elsewhere’ was Mithril Medicine, a co. I founded to develop bsAbs for LAMA2-CMD & other ECM-related genetic diseases.
Mithril was born out of hands-on building with @MikeNGladstone, @JasonPaulRhodes, @LifeSciVC, & team @atlasventure. Somehow, I made enough half-decent calls along the way (even a broken clock is right twice a day, eh?) to convince them Mithril/I warranted a small seed. While I can hardly rationalize such an outrageously cavalier bet, I’m grateful for it, & I'd partner with Atlas again in a heartbeat.
In typical AV fashion, Mithril’s primordial form was virtual, decentralized, & ultra-lean. This stage tends to be short-lived, but for Mithril, it worked surprisingly well, for surprisingly long, thanks in part to the rapid maturation of the AI tools I used liberally.
Eventually, Mithril became a bit of an experiment itself - to find the upper bound of how far it could scale as a single operator + a bunch of Claude (+ a stellar bench of part-time consultants).
In parallel, I started spending time with @nc_frey, @an1lam, & @CoefficientBio team; and promptly experienced, for the 1st time, AI at the frontier. Soon thereafter, Mithril stopped looking like an experiment, & started looking like a preview of an entirely new operating model.
From that spark came “Pipeline-in-a-Person.” The idea immediately resonated when we shared it here back in April; and it was central to the shared vision that led to Anthropic’s acquisition of Mithril, & my joining the team.
Why join Anthropic? Three reasons.
(1) For Mithril, the programs continue, with more resources & infrastructure behind them, and as much Claude as I can put to work.
(2) For me, the chance to start several more programs, & find out how many one person can actually run in parallel - an almost unprecedented luxury for a curious drug hunter.
(3) For our mission, a path to institutionalize & scale this new way of working, then put it in the hands of all of biopharma, all over the world - which, candidly, I find the most energizing.
Will AI x Bio cure diseases? Unequivocally yes, imo… but not by the route that gets the most airtime. Rather than timeline acceleration & compression, I see orchestration & parallelization as today's low-hanging fruit.
Most drug hunters see a handful of go/no-go calls in a career, & spend entirely too much of the rest trading emails (my inbox can attest).
Give them the bandwidth to run several programs at once, and the time to focus on scientific judgment, and I’m willing to bet they’ll make better calls. And at scale, better calls translate to more drugs, higher hit rates, broader patient impact, & likely, a disease or 10 or 100 cured. I couldn't be more excited to build toward that future @AnthropicAI.
Finally, a heartfelt thank you to BioTwitter/X. The end of anonymity is bittersweet, but if anyone’s earned a proper introduction, you all have.
It’s difficult to overstate how much this app has done for me: a decade of education, plenty of friends, many job opportunities, several mentors, a few investors, even a co-founder (fmr). It was the generosity of this community that inspired me to start posting 6 years ago, after just as many years lurking. I hope I’ve been able to pay it forward, in my own small way.
But, to be clear, Prof Oak isn’t going anywhere. Same beat, same themes, and now, a front-row seat to drug development at the frontier. Stay tuned for dispatches from the trenches; and remember...
Gotta Cure 'Em All
Hemingway Capital retweeted
Brains were indeed broken.
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains
"The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
"Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing."
"These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire."
"They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone."
"It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
Hemingway Capital retweeted
Revenue per GPU can increase as token prices decline if per GPU token throughput increases enough.
So both Anthropic revenue *and* margins can go up as token prices go down *if* GPU prices go up less than the product of (token price decline * per GPU throughput increase).
But I have super enjoyed all the commentary to the contrary!
Hemingway Capital retweeted
Thursday's 10-year Treasury yield decline of 0.193 percentage point (to 4.952%) is the largest single day yield decline since March 10, 2023, which is the day Silicon Valley Bank failed.
Hemingway Capital retweeted
Think the neocloud bond yields are pretty damn attractive.
The equity risk boils down to: neocloud signs 15-20 year leases and PPAs and buys GPU (ie cost side is fixed). Then it signs customers for 3-5 years at a time. Right now it’s great because spot prices are healthy. For example I’m sure OpenAI is very happy with the 300B Oracle contract because it locked in GPU hours at a price lower than spot. But when contracts come up for renewal and spot prices collapse, the margins are each site collapses.
I’ve done some back of envelope math and it looks like the senior down to unsecured tranches of these bonds look pretty safe. Anyone else get to a diff answer?
looking at the $CRWV situation and thinking Biggie was a visionary #notoriousBIG
Bro until you take back control from the teenagers ravaging the country for no good reason, how can we build $60bn data center in your failing country.
Jensen Huang le sait : la France est le pays le plus attractif d’Europe pour l’intelligence artificielle, grâce à nos talents, nos infrastructures et nos entreprises qui nous permettent de rester à l’avant-garde.
Depuis Choose France, notre coopération avec NVIDIA s’accélère, des startups aux grands acteurs industriels, en passant par les infrastructures de calcul et la recherche.
Avec une nouvelle étape aujourd’hui : NVIDIA investit dans des entreprises françaises et s’engage à soutenir notre initiative franco-allemande pour développer la recherche ouverte en Europe.
Cela a d’autant plus de valeur que nous partageons et portons la même exigence d’une intelligence artificielle ouverte, sûre et au service de notre souveraineté.
Merci cher Jensen pour votre confiance et votre soutien.

















