Long River Holding

It's been 6 months since my last portfolio update. So here it comes: To begin with, I've Changed My Approach, Not My Investment Philosophy. Since December 2025, I've deliberately avoided chasing the high-flying mega-cap technology trade. That doesn't mean I've been sitting in cash. I've been reallocating capital toward businesses with tangible assets, strong cash generation, durable competitive advantages, and occasionally, deeply mispriced cyclical opportunities. Here's what my portfolio looks like today: 1. Quality Compounders: $BRK.B $MELI $SPGI I'm increasingly interested in owning exceptional businesses rather than simply buying statistically cheap stocks. Berkshire, MercadoLibre, S&P Global, Copart, and Zoetis offer very different business models, but each has characteristics I find attractive. (Thanks to recent meltdown on some of these names) 2. Energy, Commodities & Infrastructure: $DVN $VST $MOS $EWZ $NE $MTZ $CPRT I continue to believe tangible assets, electricity demand, energy infrastructure, and agricultural inputs deserve a place in a diversified portfolio. This is partly an inflation hedge and partly a bet on long-term infrastructure investment. 3. Financials & Special Situations: $ALLY $NU $PFSI $RDN $RKT $HHH I'm still looking for opportunities where market pessimism creates attractive entry points. Consumer lending, mortgage servicing, insurance, and digital banking all offer different ways to participate in financial services. But I recognize the concentration in credit and interest-rate sensitivity. 4. Consumer & Retail: $LULU $SFM $CPNG $KHC $ZTS I'm interested in businesses with differentiated products, customer loyalty, recognizable brands, and attractive unit economics. Some are growth opportunities; others are recovery or valuation plays. (Thanks to recent meltdown on some of these names) 5. China & Asia: $PDD $JD $TME Still maintaining exposure to businesses generating substantial cash relative to their valuations. The geopolitical discount is real, and I don't underestimate it. But I also don't believe every Chinese business deserves to trade at permanently depressed multiples. I exited $SE and now am looking at better entry point. 6. Industrial & Cyclical Value: $GBX $TWI Asset-heavy businesses that are often overlooked when capital flows overwhelmingly toward growth and technology. The key is buying at normalized earnings valuations rather than peak-cycle earnings. (Thanks to recent meltdown, I was able to buy more) 7. Healthcare & Biotechnology: $ADMA $RYTM $INSM $BHC A combination of established pharmaceutical businesses, specialty healthcare, and higher-risk biotechnology opportunities. Position sizing and balance-sheet discipline matter considerably here. These are relatively small in terms of sizing..except $BHC 8. Other Cash-Generating Opportunities: $SIRI A restructuring and capital-allocation story that I continue to follow. One of my long-term holding. And, of course, $SGOV remains part of my portfolio (25-30% of my portfolio as of today). Cash is not a failure to invest. It's optionality. A few things have changed recently. I've added $MELI, $SPGI, $CPRT, $ZTS, $SFM, $GBX, $MTZ, $RKT, $NU, and $TWI. I've also exited several positions after realizing gains or identifying more attractive opportunities elsewhere. I previously had exposure to residential homebuilders and hospitality real estate. My original thesis was relatively straightforward: interest rates would gradually decline, mortgage affordability would improve, pent-up housing demand would return, and hotel operators would benefit from stronger travel spending, particularly with the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaching. I still believe parts of that thesis could play out. However, the risk/reward has changed. First, I underestimated how difficult the interest-rate environment could remain. I initially expected monetary easing to provide a tailwind for housing and real estate valuations. But inflation has remained persistent, geopolitical developments have added uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve has not followed a straightforward easing path. It held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, while the average 30-year mortgage rate was still 7.32% on October 22, compared with 6.19% a year earlier. Second, I am less enthusiastic about hospitality opportunities after the World Cup. Major sporting events can generate temporary increases in hotel room rates and revenue, but I don't want to mistake a one-time demand catalyst for sustainable earnings growth. Once the event passes, hotel operators still have to contend with labor expenses, maintenance, renovation requirements, financing costs, and normalized occupancy. Third, I started questioning the opportunity cost. Even if interest rates eventually decline and real estate recovers, are these businesses still offering a better prospective return than other opportunities available today? Outside of that, I've been selling covered calls along the way, generating additional premium income, although some shares have naturally been called away. I know this portfolio will probably underperform if speculative mega-cap technology continues to dominate the market. I'm comfortable with that trade-off. My objective isn't to own whatever is going up. It's to allocate capital where I believe the relationship between business quality, intrinsic value, and downside risk is most attractive. I don't need every position to work. I need the overall portfolio to compound intelligently while protecting capital. Now I'm curious: If you were evaluating this portfolio, what would you be most concerned about? Too many positions? Excessive cyclical exposure? Too much emerging-market risk? Or am I missing an obvious opportunity? I'm particularly interested in hearing which holdings you would eliminate and which ones you would make larger positions.

Every time it gets late and I’m still awake, I end up looking back at some of my past investment decisions and thinking about how stupid I can be sometimes. I’ve been thinking a lot about errors of omission vs. errors of commission. $POOL is one that bothers me. I followed it for a long time. Around $150, I thought the price was attractive enough. I had done the work. I understood the business. But I decided to wait for a better price. Same thing with $PEP around $125. I didn’t expect explosive growth. I was looking at it more as a high-quality, defensive business with a roughly 5% dividend yield and a reasonable price. I still didn’t pull the trigger. And $LULU is another one. I believed the numbers I had calculated. I thought the valuation was becoming interesting. But I didn’t size the position aggressively enough when I had the opportunity to add below 95 Now some of these stocks are bouncing back. And honestly, I’m not sure what bothers me more: Losing money on a bad investment, or being right about a good investment and not having the conviction to act. I do not want to be a victim of FOMO. That’d be stupid. But at what point does “I’ll wait for a better price” become an actual investment mistake? How do you think about errors of omission? And how do you distinguish disciplined patience from simply being too afraid to pull the trigger?

China has the ability to innovate and manufacture things cheaper and faster. And apparently they have the ability to manufacture a discount version of Jensen as well..

$SIRI - The questions I'd ask as a shareholder... Why replace a CEO just as the company's operating performance is beginning to improve? Witz's tenure has included work with YouTube, improved churn, and recent FCF progress. Does the next stage require a different kind of CEO? In April 2026 proxy statement, it was disclosed publicly that Witz's employment agreement ended December 31st 2026. So this looks more like a planned leadership transition at the end of a defined employment term. The board definitely has been putting in effort to build a new leadership team. Sud joined the board in March 2025. The 2026 proxy document highlighted that and another director, as well as the appointment of a new CFO and Chief Ad Revenue officer. Does the board believe the turnaround phase is largely complete and the the next challenge is digital transformation? Does the board believe that the existing business model needs a more aggressive / fundamental change? Interesting move in my opinion.

$STLA - I decided to give it another chance. My preliminary read of Stellantis is that the business is stabilizing operationally but has not yet demonstrated a durable turnaround. This is a high-risk turnaround/value position to me, not a high-quality bargain. The automobile industry remains structurally difficult. The major problems are low switching costs, high fixed costs, high capital intensity, cyclical demand, price competition, chinese competition, tariffs, EV transition uncertainty. A few things I like: 1. North American is recovering. Adjusted operating income is improved. 2. Revenue is growing again. 3. Liquidity remains substantial. 4. Cost restructuring is underway. 5. Product strategy and discipline are improving. A few things I'd watch: 1. Cash flow is still negative. 2. Profit margins remain weak. 3. Europe remains a problem. 4. Inventory increased. Quality and recall issues still persist. Three things I will pay attention to in the next 2-3 quarters: 1. Does industrial free cash flow turn positive? 2. Can their margin reach 3-5%? 3. Can they normalize inventory without sacrificing pricing?

$AMD - They need to be careful. China: 'What if we just match Lisa Su with a handsome Asian guy?' AMD's board better start stress-testing that scenario after what happened at $NVDA

$MOS The bull case is real: strong potash assets, constrained global supply, lower input costs, and potential Brazil savings. But the financials still matter. Debt-like obligations are there. Brazil remains deeply challenged. There are still significant capital requirements. I own MOS but I am not interested in adding more at current price point. Onto the next one.

$SIRI CEO transition is quite unexpected in my opinion. The new person will come from Tubi…Interesting..

$NVDA doesn’t look too promising.

Jensen Huang scandal makes Warren Buffett look even more impressive.. Decades of marriage. Minimal scandal. How can people not respect Warren..

@grok - serious question: Can you calculate the implied cost per encounter of Jensen Huang’s alleged affair? Inputs: Jensen Huang’s net worth NVIDIA’s market cap potential reputational damage legal/PR costs opportunity cost any publicly reported details about the relationship Basically, I want the DCF valuation of getting laid. Show your work.

Can’t be the guy who pops the AI bubble if your wife gets to sell the stock and tank NVIDIA $NVDA first. That’s not an affair. That’s alpha generation.

$NVDA Jensen’s legal team has one move left: Have the alleged Chinese spy identify as transgender. Suddenly half the country is too scared to ask follow-up questions.

@lululemon here is my customer acquisition strategy recommendation to you $LULU This ecosystem is a self-sustaining revenue machine.

$62 to $124 next week $NFLX

INVESTMENT MEMO: ROCKET COMPANIES $RKT The housing market is struggling. Homebuilder sentiment is near a 14-year low, mortgage applications remain weak, and elevated rates continue to suppress housing turnover and refinancing. That is exactly why Rocket caught my attention. After acquiring Mr. Cooper and Redfin, Rocket is no longer just a mortgage originator. It is building a broader homeownership platform, with a much larger servicing business and more ways to maintain customer relationships across the housing cycle. I like the strategic direction. But there are real questions I'd ask before buying more: • Can servicing economics offset weak origination activity? • Are the acquisitions earning attractive returns on the capital deployed? • How much should investors discount adjusted earnings given Rocket's stock-based compensation and dilution? • Is the market already pricing in too much of the recovery? I like what Rocket is building. I don't like what I'm being asked to pay for it. My central value estimate is $12–13 per share, versus roughly $15 in the analysis. I'd be much more interested around $10–11. I put together a deeper review of the housing backdrop, Rocket's financials, servicing business, acquisitions, SBC, risks and valuation scenarios. Onto the next one.

I spent some time going through Berkshire’s Q3 report, and my takeaway on $BRK.B is more nuanced than when I started. I still think Berkshire is one of the highest-quality businesses in the market. But I’m finding it harder to make the investment case at today’s price than I could a year ago. The good first. BNSF had a very strong quarter. Revenue was up ~15%, pretax earnings up ~19%, volumes up ~4%, and revenue per unit increased ~11%. That is the kind of operating leverage I want to see from a railroad: more volume, pricing power and higher earnings. BHE was also solid, with pretax earnings up ~8%. Manufacturing was reasonably healthy as well. And then there’s the balance sheet. Berkshire still has more than $350B in cash and Treasury bills. That gives Abel something almost no other company has: the ability to sit patiently while everyone else is forced to act. I also like that he’s actually starting to deploy it. OxyChem. Taylor Morrison. Alphabet. And nearly $9.7B of Berkshire buybacks in Q3. That tells me Berkshire isn’t simply sitting on Buffett’s cash pile forever. But there are things I don’t like. GEICO is the biggest one. Q3 underwriting earnings fell roughly 45% YoY. That deserves attention because insurance is one of Berkshire’s crown jewels. A weak quarter isn’t necessarily a thesis-breaker, but I want to see whether this is cyclical or something more structural. The consumer businesses also caught my attention. McLane revenue fell ~7% in Q3 and pretax earnings fell ~22%. Several other retail businesses are seeing weaker demand. I wouldn’t be surprised if Berkshire sees more pressure here if the consumer continues to weaken. This is one thing I think investors sometimes forget about Berkshire: It may have a fortress balance sheet, but the underlying businesses are still exposed to the economy. The other thing I’m wrestling with is capital allocation. I like the Taylor Morrison and OxyChem deals. But Berkshire is now so large that the hurdle rate has to be extremely high. Putting $10B into a mediocre business doesn’t move the needle much anymore. Abel needs to find very large opportunities that can generate attractive returns without taking Berkshire outside its circle of competence. Alphabet is another one I’m watching. I understand the thesis. It’s an exceptional business with enormous cash generation and multiple long-term growth drivers. But I keep coming back to the same question: What return is Berkshire actually underwriting at the price it paid? Great business ≠ great investment at any price. And this is where my view of $BRK.B has changed. When Berkshire was around $400, I found the setup much more compelling. Today, I think the quality is still obvious. The valuation is what makes me hesitate. I’m not looking at Berkshire thinking “sell.” I’m looking at it thinking: I want a better price. The irony is that Berkshire is probably one of the stocks I’d most want to own during a market panic because that’s when its balance sheet, liquidity and capital allocation flexibility become incredibly valuable. But that’s also why I’m reluctant to overpay for that optionality today. My biggest things to watch from here: • GEICO underwriting • Consumer/retail demand • BNSF margins and volumes • BHE’s returns on incremental capital • Abel’s acquisition discipline • Berkshire’s buyback activity • Where that $350B+ cash pile ultimately goes • Whether Alphabet becomes an exceptional investment or simply an exceptional business bought at a less exceptional price My personal conclusion after Q3: Berkshire’s business quality hasn’t changed much. The price has. I still want to own Berkshire. I just don’t feel the same urgency to buy it that I did a year ago. If the market eventually panics, I don’t have to wonder whether the company will have the financial strength to take advantage of it. I just need to make sure I’m paying a price that leaves enough upside for me.

I’ve been looking more closely at $BRK.B and I think Berkshire is becoming an interesting defensive holding in this market, but current price does not make it attractive. The stock has performed well, 14% YTD growth, which makes sense when investors are looking for safety, strong balance sheets and durable businesses. Looking back, few things caught my attention in Berkshire’s recent capital allocation: 1. OxyChem acquisition for approximately $9.4B. 2. Taylor Morrison acquisition for approximately $6.8B. 3. A substantial increase in its Alphabet position. $GOOG $GOOGL 4. Investments in Delta, Lennar, Macy’s and The New York Times. Some of these moves make sense to me. Others deserve a closer look. Alphabet is probably my biggest question. It’s a fantastic business, but I would be interested in understanding the valuation and expected returns behind that position. Both Warren and Greg didn’t give much explanation about this investment. And the private placement seems rushed to me. I’m also curious about the homebuilding investments. Are they positioning for a longer-term housing recovery, or seeing opportunities to acquire quality businesses at attractive prices? One thing I wouldn’t overlook is the operating environment across Berkshire’s existing businesses. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some slowdown in its retail and consumer-facing operations. Consumers are becoming more selective, and even Berkshire’s strongest businesses aren’t immune to weaker discretionary spending. The other question is what Greg Abel plans to do with Berkshire’s enormous cash pile. At some point, the opportunity cost of holding that much cash becomes meaningful. I still like Berkshire’s collection of businesses, financial strength and capital allocation flexibility. But at today’s valuation, I’m less enthusiastic than I was when shares were around $480ish Great business doesn’t automatically mean a great investment. I’m looking forward to the next earnings report. I want to see how the underlying businesses are performing, not just how well the stock has held up. Is $BRK.B still a compelling investment at today’s price?