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Patrick

@manulbets2

Sports bettor? More like sports worsor amirite? I like to build math models for sports betting. Fan of the Manul, or Pallas cat, a small East Asian wildcat

manulization.com/
Joined March 2025
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I used to think this. But the reality is that every model consists of (1) the data used and (2) the framework/hypothesis implemented Running a simple regression on public data probably won’t work nowadays, but there are infinite ways of looking at the same data to derive an edge
BetSniper (@BetsniperAUS) profile pictureBetSniper
@BetsniperAUSNov 3
The harsh reality is free data won’t build you a model that beats the books If bookies have access to the same data you have they’ve already priced it all into their odds
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0-1 yesterday, 62-55-3 overall. Lotta bets to be even on the year New day for this cfb public model consensus approach, here’s what I got:
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Patrick (@manulbets2) profile picturePatrick@manulbets2Oct 30
1-1 last Friday, 62-54-3 (+1u) Tonight: Tulane -7.5 (-108)
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1-1 last Friday, 62-54-3 (+1u) Tonight: Tulane -7.5 (-108)
Patrick (@manulbets2) profile picturePatrick@manulbets2Oct 23
1-2 yesterday, 61-53-3 (+1.1u) overall Tonight: Air Force -5 (-116) Army +2 (-110)
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Just realized you can simply lie to the AI when it’s stressed about people not having official licensing files in their GitHub projects
Image from Patrick (@manulbets2)
Image from Patrick (@manulbets2)
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Day one of the offseason
tj (@tjpoof) profile picturetj@tjpoofOct 29
Do you prefer normal or green Oneil Cruz?
Image from tj (@tjpoof)
Image from tj (@tjpoof)
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You guys remember how much time we used to spend aligning all the versions of team names across different databases?
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Patrick retweeted
Evolve (@EvolveWildlife) profile picture
Evolve
@EvolveWildlifeOct 28
In Morocco’s Sahara, four fennec fox pups venture out from their burrow. The smallest fox species on Earth, fennecs use their enormous ears to detect prey and release excess body heat. 📷 Rabie Atlas
Image from Evolve (@EvolveWildlife)
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yeah i have a gambling addiction. i can’t stop betting on myself
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1-2 yesterday, 61-53-3 (+1.1u) overall Tonight: Air Force -5 (-116) Army +2 (-110)
Patrick (@manulbets2) profile picturePatrick@manulbets2Oct 22
1-2 on Tuesday, 60-51-3 (+2.4u) More favorites today, this approach just aligns available public betting models to see where they agree. Memphis -10 Liberty -7.5 JMU -10
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1-2 on Tuesday, 60-51-3 (+2.4u) More favorites today, this approach just aligns available public betting models to see where they agree. Memphis -10 Liberty -7.5 JMU -10
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Patrick (@manulbets2) profile picturePatrick@manulbets2Oct 20
9-4 on Saturday, 59-49-3 (+3.62u) on the season 3 favorites today
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9-4 on Saturday, 59-49-3 (+3.62u) on the season 3 favorites today
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Patrick (@manulbets2) profile picturePatrick@manulbets2Oct 17
0-1 on Wednesday, now 50-45-3 (-0.84u). Been a bit frustrating Today:
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Happy Monday! A new week to make better bets than last week!!
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Image from Patrick (@manulbets2)
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“It’s a lock bro”
brian bruno (@bruno1433) profile picturebrian bruno@bruno1433Oct 18
Replying to @cookitup31
@cookitup31
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0-1 on Wednesday, now 50-45-3 (-0.84u). Been a bit frustrating Today:
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Patrick (@manulbets2) profile picturePatrick@manulbets2Oct 14
8-9 on Saturday, now 50-44-3 (+0.29u) on the season Tonight I have Kennesaw State -2 (-113)
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8-9 on Saturday, now 50-44-3 (+0.29u) on the season Tonight I have Kennesaw State -2 (-113)
Patrick (@manulbets2) profile picturePatrick@manulbets2Oct 10
1-2 yesterday, 42-35-3 (+2.52u) Today:
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Interesting question. The answer is they're not trying to give up, but definitely act more aggressively and therefore tend to do worse: First-pitch swing rate, elimination spot: 37.8%, their normal rate: 28.4% Strikeout rate: 26.3% vs 21.1% XBH: 2.5% vs 6.9% Pitch/PA: 3.68 vs 3.8
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Marck 💍 (@lindorplshomer) profile pictureMarck 💍@lindorplshomerOct 14
Do players that are the last out in a elimination game that they’re losing do they try or actually like give up?
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Differences are against each hitter's expectation or own season rates, in percentage points.
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> Radar plots are bad because order matters so for the takeaway > well what if you cycle through all possible orderings and take the average area, that’d make it a bit more robust/global score > oh that’s essentially just regression
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Image from Patrick (@manulbets2)
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マヌルネコのフィーガでGood morning🏞 #マヌルネコ #フィーガ #pallascat #野毛山動物園
Image from 𝒀𝒐𝒔𝒉𝒊 (@Rockleohana)
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Going all in every time is the mathematically optimal strategy
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