physics grad student and terminally online lesbian | she/her
bay area | 23 | mdni
Joined June 2020
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random walk off a short pier retweeted
Republicans are now spending in Louisiana. Republican spending decisions over the last week have led me to believe that their internal polls nationally have late breakers in a lot of states moving towards Democrats
LOUISIANA SENATE RACE
Just saw (for the first time) an anti Jamie Davis ad by the Accountability Project - 6 days before Election Day.
Don't sleep on the Gret Stet - as JMC said in a recent interview, this is NOT a "slam dunk" race for Rep. Letlow.
thelensnola.org/2026/10/23/j…
i’m trying so hard not to drink the blue tsunami koolaid. at this point i’m running out of alternative explanations
random walk off a short pier retweeted
I don't know why Nate Silver has to "live down" predicting a 30% chance Trump would win in 2016. Things with 30% likelihood still happen all the time! 30% of the time in fact!
Listened to Nate Silver on Ezra this morning. One of the least popular things I could do on this website is defend Nate Silver, so challenge accepted.
His "vibes" have been directionally correct in every Election. In 2012, he fought against the polling unskewers making claims that Romney would win based on undersampling of Republicans.
In 2016, his model was famously FAR more bullish on Trump than any others. He was the only modeler who understood the possibility of correlated polling error.
In 2020, he repeatedly emphasized the higher than usual uncertainty due to the pandemic.
In 2022, he fought back against pollsters (NY Times!) basically ignoring their own data to buy into the Red Wave.
In 2024, he said that even though his model was 50/50, his gut said Trump would win.
All in all, a better record than anyone else on Election Twitter.
it's actually fucking over dude
We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.
openai.com/index/building-sc…
“average florida voter rabidly anti-communist” factoid actually statistical error. Gusano Jorge, who got kicked out of cuba, made a fortune in the venezuelan oil industry, and then retired in miami, is an outlier and should not be counted
random walk off a short pier retweeted
Vucic is dead and Lula is alive
ALT Joe Biden in 2012 speaking at a lectern saying “Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is Alive.”
i have a concept called One Drink Zone where i have one drink and then i feel like my world is ending. you can escape One Drink Zone by waiting or having another drink
random walk off a short pier retweeted
if there isn't disproportionate, life-destroying criminal sanction for the people responsible for this in 2029 there will just never be a non-partisan bureaucratic apparatus ever again. I've seen this happen a couple times in a couple places- it just doesn't come back.
SCOOP: The State Dept has started asking career diplomats up for promotion if they voted for Trump in 16, 20, 24.
Federal law prohibits politically based hiring for career staff.
State tells @washingtonsun it's screening for "fidelity" and execution of the president's vision👇
random walk off a short pier retweeted
Fourchettes et « Couteaux à beurre » : que contiennent les 4 tiroirs ouverts dans ma cuisine ?
Croix gammées et « Heil Hitler » : que contiennent les 421 000 mails piratés à l’AfD ?
➡️ l.humanite.fr/sj3
random walk off a short pier retweeted
I've started to think of America's capital markets as our country's equivalent of having a 130 mph average tennis serve. We can do can an incredible number of other things wrong, but somehow stay in the game economically, because because we can just blast money around.
