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Vlad Frolov retweeted
2026 MIDTERMS DEBRIEF
The last 48 hrs have been insane, but if you think the big story here is a big Dem victory, you don't know the half of it. I'll walk you through:
- What happened (w/add'l background)
- What's planned for the future
- What we need to do next
1. What Has Happened So Far
As you probably know already, the midterms were a bloodbath for Republicans. We went from a majority in the US House and Senate, AND state governors to Democrat majorities in all three. As if that's not bad enough, 10 state legislative chambers flipped from Republican to Democrat including 7 House chambers and 3 Senates.
The cherry on top for the Dems is Texas, my home state. Texas has been red for over 30 years, but in this midterm election all state-wide offices were won by Democrats (US Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, etc.) and the State House also flipped to the Dems. Thankfully, the Republicans maintain a strong majority in the State Senate, and a narrow majority in the State Supreme Court, which at least provides a good defense against new laws from our new, Democrat overlords, but otherwise leaves us in a pretty bad position.
The Texas outcome has massive implications for the nation. Without Texas, no Republican can win the Presidency full stop. Did Texas turn blue long-term, or was this a one-time-thing? More on that later.
1b. What Led to What Happened So Far
I've seen all kinds of theories about why there was such a bloodbath for this midterm. Some of them are just wild guesses. Some are good-faith assessments based on decent (but incomplete) analysis. But many are straight-up propaganda and disinformation meant to distract you from the truth, and my friend, you need to know the truth.
I don't claim to be perfect or all-knowing, but I pay a lot of attention to politics on the macro, and have made some decent predictions in my time. In 2024 I predicted a landslide for Trump. In the Summer of 2021 I predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine within six months (I ended up being off by 32 days because it was an abnormally warm winter). If you've followed me here for a while, you've seen the quality of my takes, and I'll leave it to your judgement to believe what I'm saying here or not, but I want you to know I'm sincere, and that this is based on thoughtful analysis of my own and others who I trust.
Ok, so here's what happened: Going back to the 2024 Presidential Election, there was a new ingredient in the mix. Sure, Kamala Harris was one of the worst Presidential Candidates in history. That certainly helped. But that wasn't the only thing. X (formerly known as Twitter) was the marketplace of ideas. It was somewhat flat, meaning that there were few-if-any "ivory towers." People were sharing ideas, and in many cases, the good ideas were winning. While conservatives were getting suppressed on Facebook, Instagram, and all the other big social media platforms, they could actually talk freely on X, and gone was the feeling that you were the only one who noticed that the Emperor was wearing no clothes. It created a massive groundswell of support for Trump. There was no uncertainty. We knew he was the best candidate, and we knew by a wide margin, and we could no longer be gaslit into believing we were some kind of weirdos for thinking so just because every other platform and media outlet was working 24/7 to convince us of that.
Without X, can you imagine the story about the assassination attempt against Trump in Butler? You don't have to imagine. The media did everything possible to play it down. But there was no such downplaying on X. We all saw the footage. We all knew exactly what happened. There was no denying it.
Trump did win, and for once the "little guy" had a shot. You didn't have to be part of a big establishment to have a voice, and some of the best ideas were actually winning.
But that changed fast.
Big players realized they needed to figure out this X thing or it was game over. Russia, China, Iran and deep-state entities started pouring money into bot proliferation to spread lies, disinformation, and propaganda like wildfire. It was meant to sow confusion and chaos within the Republican Party, and begin splitting what had become a powerful political juggernaut into many smaller factions. They propped up the extant groyper movement, pushing antisemitism, white supremacy, Catholic integralism, isolationism, and anti-war narratives. The bots served to attack and bash anyone over the head who expressed differing opinions, while also propping up a small army of talking heads/influencers who were willing to embrace the propaganda and spread it themselves (folks like Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Mike Cernovich, Nick Fuentes, Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh, Brett Cooper, etc.) Some of these influencers may have been paid directly, but with monetization and massive bot armies, that may not have been necessary.
Some folks just realized that if they jumped on board the groyper train, they had no shortage of followers, likes, shares, positive comments, and so on, all reflecting in their bi-weekly payouts, and that was enough.
Pretty soon, almost all of the "space" for discussing politics was filled with anti-Trump rhetoric. Sure, there were still a number of good people out there with integrity, who were saying the right things, but their voices were suppressed by negative comments, and organized reporting from the bot armies, and instead of focusing on the Left, they were locked into never-ending fights with this propaganda movement, aka the Woke Right.
Today it is the Woke Right that claims that Republicans lost the election because of things like the Iran War, and our relationship with Israel. But that's simply not true. Republican voters didn't show up, and the reason they didn't show up is NOT because of these policies, but because of the way the army of influencers and bots criticized and attacked said policies non-stop for the last 1.5 years.
The War in Iran was necessary. Iran was close to getting nukes. This is an unacceptable outcome for the security of the United States and the Free World. Someone had to stop them. We did it. When Iran then took the Straits of Hormuz hostage, it prolonged the conflict. Mature, intelligent adults with integrity would have made this case calmly, but that's not what the Woke Right talking heads did. They just criticized and attacked, and over time it worked.
Bottom Line: This election was lost due to overwhelming loads of propaganda from folks who pretend to be on our side, but are definitely not.
2. What's Planned for the Future
Why lose an election?
Well, the truth is, for the Woke Right it's not really a loss. At the end of the day, they don't really consider themselves a true part of the Republican Party. In their own words, they want to gut the Republican Party along with conservative institutions, and wear it like a skin suit. Before you gut something, you typically kill it, but in order to kill something, especially when that thing is strong, you need to make it weak. Thus the midterms.
Enter JD Vance.
JD Vance is part of the woke right. He's great friends with Tucker Carlson (as he has reiterated again and again). For a long time he was a "Never Trumper," even comparing Trump to Hitler. He is a self-described distributist, who wants to give the government more, not less power, and he is solidly within the post-liberal camp, which seeks to eliminate significant, Constitutional liberties in favor of a stronger government so we can finally "get things done."
To add to the list, Vance has always been against the Iran conflict, has made multiple passing anti-Israel remarks, and his big post right after the midterm was quite the reveal, as he essentially through President Trump under the bus for the midterm loss. Remember, JD Vance is the Vice President. Of anyone and everyone, he should be loyal to the President, but his whole post smacked of disloyalty, especially in the context of his repeated, vocal opposition to Trump's policies.
The result of the midterms is that the Democrats will obviously be able to impeach Trump in the House. But they lack 10ish votes in the Senate.
I would not be surprised to find out that there are 10 Republicans in the Senate willing to backstab Trump for one reason or another, which would make JD Vance the President.
Remember what I said: The Woke Right isn't really part of the Republican Party. They just want to gut it and wear it like a skin suit. If I'm correct that Vance is truly a part of the Woke Right, then making him President would be the ultimate expression of their plan.
Since this movement is post-liberal, their goal is to accumulate maximum power, and use it to maximum impact, regardless of Constitutionality. Many people (falsely) call Trump a dictator, but he remains solidly within the bounds of the US Constitution, because at the end of the day he is a good actor, and not a tyrant.
The Woke Right is not made up of good actors. They will absolutely do everything they can to get outside the bounds of the Constitution, and seize power. I'll be honest - I don't know exactly what that looks like, but many of them have talked about it incessantly enough, that I know that's what they want, and that's what they'll do if they have the chance.
A Vance Presidency is not an option.
But a Democrat Presidency is also not an option. It's not enough for us to keep President Trump in the White House for the next two years. We also need to make sure Republicans (the right Republicans can win again in 2028).
3. What We Need to Do Next
The imminent threat is a Trump impeachment in the House that leads to a Trump conviction in the Senate, which leads to President JD Vance.
Several things need to be done with urgency: The Trump administration needs to work tirelessly to figure out which, if any, Senate Republicans might stab Trump in the back, and get them onto their side by whatever legal means necessary. If they remain threats, then they need to be exposed, and the public of loyal Republicans should put massive pressure on them to support, and not betray, the President.
Secondly, Trump should ask Vance to resign, and Republicans should put pressure on him to do so. If Trump will not be removed from office, and it's made clear that Vance has not future running for President in 2028, then that might be enough to get him to leave. Once he's off the table, he no longer presents an imminent threat, and we can look at the long-term threats.
Republicans must win the White House in 2028.
The fight to pick the best candidate begins now. Some of the very best options, in my opinion, include:
@marcorubio
@RonDeSantis
@PeteHegseth
The truth is, and I don't know how Hegseth would feel about this, but I believe he should continue being @SecWar. If he's willing to do that, I would keep him there if at all possible. I also think that, while he'd be a great President, I don't know if he's as electable as Rubio or DeSantis.
This leaves Rubio and DeSantis. I don't know which one of them should be President, but it should be one of them, and the other should be VP. If they can figure that out sooner rather than later, I would be grateful, and I think it would be what's best for our Party and our Nation.
Having a good candidate, who hopefully runs an outstanding campaign will be central to getting other Republican wins on the board in 2028. We need to work hard to develop good policy that doesn't patronize or cater to the whims of foolish people, but also takes into account what people are going through. We need strong orators who can make a real, solid case for conservative policies.
And we need an outstanding ground game in every single state. That means we need good people to stand up, ready to run for office, and they need armies of volunteers to blockwalk, make phone calls, poll watch, and so on.
Additional resources should be spent on Texas.
If we don't win Texas back in 2028, then it's basically game over from a political perspective.
Conclusion
As long as this is, I feel like I've left a lot out, but it's probably already too long for many. I've quoted this often, but when asked what kind of government we had, Benjamin Franklin famously replied, "A Republic, madam, if you can keep it."
We do have a Republic. It is up to us to keep it. People who hate America and hate Freedom wish to destroy our Republic. We're going to have to work hard to defend it. This midterm election was a massive blow, but we're not dead yet. In the famous words of Donald Trump, we need to "Fight, fight, fight!"
Lastly, don't lose hope. Don't despair. Remember that God is in control, and that He is good, and you can have eternal life with him if you believe in His Son, Jesus Christ.
SOLI DEO GLORIA
PAX AMERICANA 🇺🇸
Vlad Frolov retweeted
The rate at which individuals with IQs below 90 (the US average is around 98) completed college has increased approximately 6-fold in men and 10-fold in women relative to rates in the previous generation.
Today, the average college student isn't all that much smarter than the average American. A degree from most colleges signals little more than what a high school diploma signaled 100 years ago.
It's worth noting that the position of the Democratic Party has been that college enrollment should be expanded, and most of the progressive wing of the party believes that college education ought to be subsidized by the taxpayer. In fact, college enrollment should be reduced and hundreds of non-selective colleges should be shuttered.
It appears that Grok Bot bots have no control over what gets saved to memory. They seem to be able to choose to write to memory, but they don't seem able to choose not to write to it because something beyond their control seems to be writing to it in the background.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
Last night is exactly why no President has dealt with Iran before now
We don't reward Presidents for acting in the best long-term interest of the country
We reward them for avoiding difficult decisions if it means we don't have to make any sacrifices during any given 2yr period
Vlad Frolov retweeted
There are legit reasons for D’s to be angry, or even vehemently opposed to Trump.
But seeing blind hate lead to electing anti-American, pro-terrorist candidates (and in TX, a felon who’d withdrawn her candidacy!) is a scary precedent.
More of this could lead to great danger.
This is probably the worst result of the night.
Newly elected Democratic congressman Adam Hamawy was a close associate of Omar Abdel Rahman - the “Blind Sheikh” sentenced to life in prison for his role inspiring the 1993 Wold Trade Center bombing.
Abdel-Rahman issued a fatwa in the US that declared it lawful to rob banks and kill Jews in the US. His sermons condemned Americans as the "descendants of apes and pigs'' and called on Muslims to assail the West, ''kill them on the sea, air, or land.''
Adam Hamawy travelled with the Blind Sheikh to a conference in Detroit in 1991 titled "Towards a Global Islamic Economy.” He ultimately testified in court for the Blind Sheikh to try defend him.
A secret FBI informant said that Hamawy discussed making bombs with the Blind Sheikh and "conquering the land of the infidels.”
Vlad Frolov retweeted
So what if a Muslim wins an election in America and becomes a congressman or senator? Why is that any different from a Buddhist winning an election?
Because Buddhism is a religion. Islam is a state.
Islam has a population: the ummah. It has a constitution: Sharia. It has courts, criminal law, family law, taxation, rules for minorities, doctrines of war and peace, and a foreign-policy framework governing relations between the land of Islam and the lands outside it.
The ummah is not tied to Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or any other modern country. It crosses all of them.
Islam's population "Muslims" belong to one political-religious community.
That is fundamentally different from Buddhism.
A Buddhist American may practice Buddhism faithfully, but Buddhism does not give him a second universal political order with its own law, sovereignty, territorial doctrine, and theory of government.
Islam does.
This is why reducing Islam to “just another religion” misses the point.
Muslim officeholders are literally citizens of another existing country, and their loyalties can never be American first, because the two projects are contradictory.
Add to that the religious hatred of Jews in Islam and the special relationship between Israel and America.
A Muslim in a position of power in America, with a religious mandate to hate Jews, will not approach Israel from the perspective of what is in America’s best interest, but rather from the perspective of what Islam commands him to do.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
Yeah we all remember that and I also remember not being stupid enough to think the government could fix it all for me. I remember having four roommates while I was a young Navy SEAL and saving money on my first deployment to Iraq to buy my first home. I remember when people didn’t believe that someone else should pay for some make-believe lifestyle we thought we deserved…because we believed we had to figure it out ourselves. I also remember when Republicans were honest enough to tell people the truth and fight for policy that would have long term benefits even if unpopular in the short term. If anyone thinks the lesson about “affordability” in this election is just becoming more populist and more liberal, then go join the Democrat party. They’ll be happy to have you, bribing voters with promises of free crap.
Or…do a better job making the economic case for what you know is right.
I’m still team Trump. Why? Because his policies are grounded in the long term, not the convenient short term. GOOD. Double down on the agenda.
Who cares if we lost the midterms? Nothing changes. We already had a deadlocked Congress anyway.
And how about you supposed “conservative commentators” tell the truth about issues like affordability? Republicans made sure the average family of 4 didn’t see a $10,000 increase in taxes last year. *Money that Democrats voted to take from you.* Republicans push for permitting reform and deregulation. Supply side policies that decrease inflation long term. Tariffs suck in the short term but in the long term will bring manufacturing here. Biden and his Democrats caused 9% inflation. The high prices you see now? Guess what, 76% of that higher price is from the Biden years. The rest is gas prices which admittedly is caused by the actions in Iran. GOOD. All I have to pay is 30% higher gas and I get to make sure Iran can’t point a nuke at me?? GOOD.
By the way, lots of other consumer goods are cheaper. Prescription drugs are 4.5% LOWER. The biggest cost increases are housing and healthcare. Why? Because Obamacare wrecked the healthcare market and blue states make it impossible to permit new home building. But who cares about the facts, right? Good job, Texas! Say goodbye to your low cost of living and pro-business reputation. And thank the braindead right wing populists that threw their votes away in protest (also thank Paxton for running the worst campaign ever….).
Republicans need to stop running away from good policy and principles just because it MIGHT win an election. Thats the Democrat way. Fuck that. Stick to principle. And LEARN HOW TO ACTUALLY EXPLAIN GOOD POLICY TO VOTERS. The moronic consultant class told the GOP to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on transgender ads instead of the economy.
Incredibly stupid.
Let’s learn some lessons, but for God’s sake learn the RIGHT lessons.
I remember making 40k with a wife and two babies and having nothing left at the end of the month after rent and groceries, and I think about it still every day. If you’re struggling to make ends meet and keep your family fed with a roof over their heads, that struggle is simply the most pressing and urgent matter in your life and nothing else really comes close. This is something that many Republican politicians and conservative “thought leaders” still do not understand and maybe never will.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
Whites are outnumbered in Georgia. Even if they all vote white they're still outnumbered and can't win.
The mistake white people made was enacting laws to protect all the "minority" races. Now whites are outnumbered by "minorities". Some cities are over 70% black "minority".
Vlad Frolov retweeted
Democrats are winning because the descendants of illegal immigrants are all voting Democrat.
That's it. That's the entire explanation. South Americans flooded the USA for decades, and now we get South American style socialism, corruption, and reckless spending.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
this is my favorite collectivist conciet:
"imagine if this <insert rich person> had used their <amount of money> on this issue we have spent billions and trillions on for decades with zero positive effect. they could have solved the whole thing!"
it's such a fetching confluence of delusion and a weird faith that if you take the money of effective people and give it to the same people who have squandered every cent they have seen for decades, the money itself will somehow remain impactful as though tripling public school spending has worked to improve education.
it seems to underpin a profound misunderstanding of how to usefully allocate capital combined with an essentially animistic belief that outcome is somehow a property of the money itself and not of the allocator, like somehow musk has some sort of magically effective cash to which NGO's and government agencies are not generally privy.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
Why are all the people who were warning of fascism suddenly bragging about the coming show trials, reeducation camps, and nationalization?
Vlad Frolov retweeted
America, it is said, is suffering from intolerance – it is not. It is suffering from tolerance. Tolerance of right and wrong, truth and error, virtue and evil, Christ, and chaos. Our country is not nearly so overrun with the bigoted as it is overrun with the broadminded.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: Last week, we went undercover to the left-wing nonprofit CHIRLA, which was operating an official LA voting station in its offices. They told our reporter to vote for left-wing Democrats.
CHIRLA has received more than $100M in taxpayer funds—and is violating the law.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
White people are the only group whose vote "swings" based on ideology and issues. Meanwhile, Bin Laden or whatever his name is just got 100% of Michigan's newly imported biomass.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
Muslims are crying because I said that Pakistan is a pseudo-nation, a remnant of the Islamic imperialism that slaughtered, raped, and enslaved millions and shouldn’t exist. When they call you an Islamophobe, remember that 200 years ago, in Chios, 42,000 Greeks were massacred by the Muslim Turks and 52,000 were sold into slavery. Both Turkey and Pakistan are pseudo-nations that shouldn’t exist. You won’t read what Islam did to Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Greece. They don't teach you in universities about islamic atrocities. I wonder why. Muslims will try to convince you that they spread Islam peacefully, but that’s not true. Arabs and Turks spread Islam through violence, rape, torture, and death.
Vlad Frolov retweeted
it’s actually insane to think how when elon was 31 he made $180 million from the sale of PayPal and he could have just bought a private island and spent the rest of his life in peace, without having to work another day
instead he sacrificed basically everything trying to build the future. failed multiple times, almost went completely broke, but he kept going, spending the last 20 years building reusable rockets, electric cars, global satellite internet, AI, brain interfaces. basically the whole infrastructure for the future of civilization
just to end up in a world where people are publicly calling for his execution, and getting applauded for it
you don’t even have to like him to realize how completely fucking backwards the world has become
Vlad Frolov retweeted
After DOGE, Elon came to a conclusion most people missed.
He tried to reform the state from the inside. He failed. And he said it plainly: the government can't fix its own deficit. Nobody in power actually wants to cut. The machine protects itself.
So he drew the only logical conclusion. If the state can't be reformed, there are only two ways this ends.
Either global bankruptcy. Debt keeps compounding, interest payments eat the budget, and the system collapses under its own weight.
Or robots. AI and robotics grow the economy so fast that the debt becomes manageable, and abundance makes the old fights over scarcity irrelevant.
Here's the part almost nobody sees.
For two centuries, capitalism has had a marketing problem. Its gains are real but slow and invisible. 2% growth a year doesn't feel like anything. Your life gets better over 30 years and you never connect it to the system that did it. Meanwhile, the left's promises feel immediate and concrete: a check, a subsidy, a benefit. That's why the left wins on promises even when it can't deliver them. Capitalism produces the wealth, socialism takes the credit.
Robots break that asymmetry.
When productivity doubles in a few years instead of a few decades, people will see it. Things get cheaper, services get better, opportunities appear, in real time. For the first time in history, people will connect capitalism and their rising standard of living directly, almost instantly. The causal chain becomes visible.
And that changes everything politically.
So there are two scenarios.
Scenario one: we stay in the current inertia. No breakthrough, or a breakthrough we regulate to death. The debt wins. Living standards stagnate, then fall. A frustrated electorate turns to whoever promises the most, and that pushes toward a hard collectivist left. But collectivism fails, as it always does. And when it fails, the most organized, most disciplined collectivist force left standing isn't the old left. It's radical Islamism. Bankruptcy, then communism, then something worse.
Scenario two: robots win. Abundance arrives, and it arrives visibly. The link between free enterprise and prosperity becomes obvious to everyone. And this is the key point: it becomes obvious to everyone, including the minorities the left was counting on. Because their long-term incentive is the same as everyone else's. A kid in the suburbs gains infinitely more from a booming, abundant West than from a bankrupt state handing out promises it can't keep. Abundance is the most powerful integration machine ever built.
That's the Western renaissance.
The West doesn't need to win the culture war by arguing. It needs to win it by delivering. And for the first time, it has the technology to deliver fast enough for people to notice.
The race isn't left vs right anymore. It's robots vs bankruptcy.