Bitcoin pleb

I really hope someone tweets this out in 10 years. Credit to @markgoodw_in for putting this in my head. I've been wrestling with this idea for fucking 2 years, trying to figure out the flow mechanisms. I understood it from a philosophical perspective but I was really struggling to understand the ACTUAL mechanics of how it works. Here goes. Something clicked for me today. And this will seem really simple and dumb but its' not. 1.) User/individual sees bitcoin price going up and wants to buy some. 2.) User goes to app/exchange. App exchange deals in USDT or equivalent. 3.) User then is forced to convert whatever currency they are in (even could be USD!!), into USDT in order to buy bitcoin. 4.) Tether mints the coin (takes the USD), and then buys US Treasuries. Here's the part I think some people are missing. This creates a 1 way demand for Treasuries. Tether just collects the premium and never sells them. So if you peel back the layers here and see what is actually happening. 1.) If bitcoin price pumps, it attracts demand. 2.) That demand is basically auto converting whatever currency the user comes in with, into a US Treasury buy. And it's being bought by someone who won't sell it (Tether). So the only loser is the original currency. This might end up being the most brilliant attack of foreign currencies ever engineered. It's playing out right in front of our eyes and we can't see it. I've been studying it for years and I'm still struggling with it. Sorry for continually tagging your Mark. Why can't people see this?

Only a few are around from first epoch. Everyone gets bored. You see people come and go cycle by cycle. And yet here we are at 75k. Max public hype was 2017. That was 10x ago. Basing future investment thesis at the end of a bear market likely won’t play out well. But I do wish you well, and am willing to be wrong. But bitcoin responds to liquidity, and I’m betting on the government printing again.

I don't think normies get it. Every app, every service, every stupid fucking store you bought something from online can sink you. 99.99% don't even know what opsec is. And if you do, going backwards is overwhelming if not impossible. This is not a "be clean" race at this point. It's be faster than the slowest in the hurd. This is a mess people, and normies have no clue. Everything we've done in the last 10 years has fucked our privacy forever. It's over. Now go touch grass and be kind man. Not much else to do.

It took 18-20 years from tcip for internet to go mainstream. Bitcoin seems to be following a similar path

For the speculators. 500k by 2030. A million by 2040. 10 million by 2050. Everything else is noise and can’t be predicted. Only thing that can derail those targets is if the protocol itself fails.

Re reading the chain tonight. Still the best long form spot to find bitcoin thesis? @markgoodw_in last time you said it was better/more in depth than bitcoin dollar

Thought. Bitcoin takes 20 years for people to realize it’s valuable and viable. (Similar timing to internet). Value? Half a million. 2029 = 500k. Then it takes another 20 years to fulfill its role a global monetary base layer. Value? Just like Hal said. 2049 = 10 million.

444k loading @JoshMandell6

I'm starting to understand that much of what we see on fintwit and crypto twitter is fed activity to manipulate people's emotions on investing. Almost like a testing ground.

Liquid, maybe the second largest layer 2 just got fucking smoked and the price of bitcoin didn't move.

I have to pay someone and they wanted venmo. Had no balance on venmo. So now, it's gonna take 5 business days (a week in real time), for my bank to move the money to venmo account. Then it'll take another week for them to move it from venmo to their account. 2 weeks! To move $140 dollars. In 2026. So tell me again how legacy bullshit fiat system is better than bitcoin. This could be done in 10 minutes and confirmed within the hour.

What if. Gold is about to be re priced as held on the treasury balance sheet and they used Rand Paul as a media plug to make sure people knew the gold was there

Lacy Hunt says Warsh needs Bessent to stop fucking with the 30 year bonds so he can see the market signal (Drucks point). But Warsh has said traditional measures of monetary expansion and inflation expectations are bullshit and he wants to use bitcoin to do it. Bessent says he has asymmetric info. I think they let bitcoin run up to 2x power law before they flip the market and tight. Bitcoin is the new inflation measure. @JoshMandell6 thoughts?

Remember. Insider trading is legal in bitcoin. Do not discount the idea that insiders have "asymmetric info". Is it likely? Probably not. But we haven't seen runs like this in a very very long time.

Is it possible. With Jackson hole and Asheville this week. Someone with inside info is front running bitcoin?

Going to see a HUGE bitcoin price pump tonight as tradfi tries to cover into sunday night/new week.

Uber eats is dangerous. It's mostly struggling poor people looking for extra income (admirable), who would be better off starting a side hustle. Delivery food, to people who are too tired to cook or too lazy and are wasting huge amounts of income. Net negative for society. I support their ability to exist in a free market, but man I just see a lot of downside to it.

Does anyone know is Len Sassaman had other concerns about bitcoin besides privacy?

I don't know if bitcoin is going to go up or down in the next 12 months. But I think volatility will be very very high.