AI, Big Data and Elections @fladatacom, @freshtakefla and https://xitter.cf/t.co/MIeRWCqev6. Dev and Adjunct @UF. Hiker of Long Trails. Past @TB_Times, @datapath, @USMC
St Petersburg, FL
Joined June 2019
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Due in large part to polls in 11 red counties coming online this morning, today was the busiest day of the election so far. Democrats edged out Republicans by 5k in VBM. The GOP dominated IPEV with a margin of 26k. Currently D+1.7 with a 34,000-ballot lead.
Today was the final day to request a mail ballot, so we will not see much more top-line growth in this chart. More than half of all mail ballots have now been returned.
Visit @freshtakefla's turnout dashboard for additional analyses: freshtake.vote/2026G/index.p…
Republicans are having a great day here in Florida. Eleven red counties began early voting today including Collier, Marion, Citrus and Hernando. GOP is down 3k VBM, but up 22k IPEV. Democrats have been showing up mornings and evenings this cycle. Currently D+35,000
Much thanks to the PHP2Shell exploit for keeping me up tonight as DNS cuts over to a brand new turnout server. In all, five servers patched, one rebuilt.
Democrats ended yesterday with a 60,000-vote advantage. Republicans have finally begun to chew on the Democratic lead. While Dems held an 8,300 vote lead in VBM today, it was more than offset by a 14,700-voter GOP IPEV advantage. Dems currently up 54k ballots. Currently D+3.16%.
The difference between polling and turnout analysis is that polls are an alchemic projection. Turnout shows what has already occurred. It’s a matter of fact. And there’s not one turnout analyst on this platform that would have predicted what is occurring right now.
I’m not in the business of making predictions, but if there were ever a perfect storm for Florida Democrats, this is how I would expect it to form.
3. Democrats continue to turnout a higher percentage of their voters vs Republicans in every single Florida county. Statewide Dems have turned out 14% of their base vs 9% for the GOP. Could be the GOP's tendency to vote late. Could be beef prices. Who knows?
4. The best I can tell you is that we'll just have to wait and see how Dems perform on Day 3 of IPEV. So far, it's been all gas and no brakes.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. Visit our dashboard here: freshtake.vote/2026G/index.p…
