Min Daugas (@mkiskis) header
Min Daugas (@mkiskis) profile picture

Science nerd. @mru_university Professor. Law, Policy, Economics. Overregulation, regulatory quality and deregulation. 真実はいつも一つ!₿

Europe / USA
Joined November 2007
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Min Daugas retweeted
The newer generations are unemployable, so I shut down a business yesterday. I have many small businesses I got involved in, one is a Saltwater fish store. It sells fish, corals, aquariums etc. The most profitable part of one of these stores is outside Maintenance. Going to peoples houses, changing the fish tanks water, cleaning glass etc. This is a very simple job, you run a hose in from the truck, suck water out, pump water in (nothing manual), and use a magnetic razor blade to clean the glass. Take a water sample and leave. We had 4 trucks and 6 guys doing this... then 5, 4, 3... each person that quit put more work on the ones left. We tried to hire, it's a very low skill job. Most maintenance guys make $15-18 an hour. We went upto $35 an hour to try and get people. Beyond that we cannot be profitable. The job is easy, you have to have a license (actually hard as hell apparently), and pass a background check (youre in peoples homes, also hard as hell). Pass a drug test. At $35 an hour we got the following. Someone that caused almost 8k of damage when they started pumping in water, went out "for a smoke" and the tank overflowed. At least 5 hires that went through background tests, drug tests etc then didn't show for work the 1st day and never called us again. Someone that intentionally pulled the guard off the water pumping hose, and sucked someones fish into the pump. Someone that scratched the District Attourney of las vegas, Steve Wolfson's tank by deciding to not use the magnetic razor, and "do it by hand"... fo no fucking reason. (4k bill) A wrecked van Someone who stole our water tester (1500 dollar machine). I have no empathy, at least in Las Vegas, for people complaining about no work, no jobs blah blah blah. $6000 a month to put hoses in and out of a tank and look at pretty fish.
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Min Daugas retweeted
🚨 JUST NOW: Haley Stevens and Mike Rogers drop this truth nuke on Abdul El Sayed STEVENS: He said I'm not welcome in his campaign? You take the message. THAT'S WHAT ABDUL SAID. ROGERS: This is COURAGE in politics in America today...we're gonna change the direction. We've been working with black pastors...we are going to work together! 🇺🇸 Abdul thought shutting Stevens out would end the story But NOW she's standing next to his opponent 48 hours before polls open! 😅 Black pastors, Jewish families, and now a sitting Democrat congresswoman are all in Rogers' corner. Michigan Mike has the momentum.
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Min Daugas retweeted
Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens: “Abdul [El-Sayed] made very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign, that he didn't need me there, that he didn't want me there...my vote for Senate is going to be with Mike Rogers...we have to stand with country, we can’t stand with hate.”
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Min Daugas retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: Haley Stevens (D) just WALKED OUT to OFFICIALLY endorse Mike Rogers (R) — and he's standing right at her side! "My vote for Senate...MIKE ROGERS." 🇺🇸 "We have to stand with country. WE CAN'T STAND WITH HATE. We can't stand with Hasan Piker!" "I woke up this morning, decided to go to church — and I am here with the person who I am voting for. That is Mike Rogers." 🔥🔥🔥 This is an absolutely amazing sight. Political earthquake happening in MI This is the same Stevens who was supposed to be at a Detroit church today with Jim Clyburn, showing Democratic "unity" behind Abdul El Sayed Abdul ruined THAT
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Min Daugas retweeted
I've been pointing out since the early 2010s that Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman have a bad habit of biasing their data construction to fit their politics. Whenever they make a suspect call in how to handle stats, it ends up showing that inequality is on the rise. They almost never go in the other direction. The errors are non-random and almost invariably reinforce their political claims about rising income and wealth concentration since 1980. Piketty did this throughout his book Capital in the 21st Century. Piketty and Saez did this throughout their famous 2003 paper on inequality in the US. Piketty, Saez, and Zucman Saez and Zucman did this in their Distributional National Accounts paper that Auten and Splinter dissected. Saez and Zucman did this in their 2019 book on tax incidence and inequality. Saez and Zucman did this in their flurry of "studies" and white papers to support Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax proposal, California Prop 40, a new wealth tax in France, and dozens of other similar examples. A new AI report (linked below) audited 138 papers by Saez and Zucman. It found thousands of errors, 194 of which were serious. A whopping 97% of the serious errors went in the same direction: they showed inequality rising faster or made it higher. But there's a bigger scandal at play here. Despite these clear biases, Piketty, Saez, and Zucman have enjoyed a stream of praise and prestige within the economics profession. They get expedited and friendly reviews in top econ journals even though a more serious peer review should have caught many of these errors (the Quarterly Journal of Economics is a recurring offender in this regard). Journals regularly give them a pass after the errors in their old work come to light - they're never expected to correct any of it, and just keep on using it as if nothing changed. Their non-peer reviewed data claims are also treated as gospel by major media outlets such as the New York Times and the Washington Post. And they get showered with prizes - Saez and Zucman are both Clark Medal winners from the AEA, and Zucman got his prize in 2023 after evidence of major data shenanigans in his work came to light in 2019. Until now, those of us who have been trying to correct the record have had to wade through the PSZ trio's cluttered, disorganized, and often non-transparent replication packages (almost all of which are convoluted piles of Excel spreadsheets) to find the problems. I did a line-by-line replication of Piketty and Saez's entire 2003 US income inequality series to use one example, and found it was riddled with errors - almost every single one of which biased their results in favor of their political story. We had the means to catch this stuff as it was happening, but the economics profession failed to do its job. And it failed precisely because its elite ranks wanted to believe the Piketty-Saez-Zucman story for political reasons.
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EXCLUSIVE: Ursula von der Leyen has not yet given an in-person statement to the European Public Prosecutor's Office in its investigation into the procurement of coronavirus vaccines, according to an anonymous source. vist.ly/5qb4s
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Breaking news: the NY Times says superintelligence is already here.
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Min Daugas retweeted
Announcing three major scientific discoveries, one each in mathematics (harmonic analysis), computer science (complexity theory), and physics (quantum field theory). AI starting to help us improve our understanding of the universe! openai.com/index/building-sc…
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An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
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Min Daugas retweeted
Talarico is a far-left extremist and a pathological liar. I combed through the available record. I compiled 34 clips showing Talarico's extreme views and the lies he now tells to hide them from voters. All in his own words.
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Min Daugas retweeted
Unpopular opinion: your results with AI largely depend on how smart you are
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Min Daugas retweeted
Replying to @Rothmus
Those who are opposed to corporations and favor government do not realize that government is simply the largest, most monopolistic corporation of all and it has a monopoly on violence.
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Researchers proved every major LLM is secretly biased against men. And they finally figured out why. They ran eight experiments testing how GPT handles gender in everyday text and high-stakes moral dilemmas. The results show a bizarre, highly asymmetrical machine morality. First, they tested inclusivity. They gave the AI phrases supposedly written by children. When a child wrote about playing football or wanting to be a firefighter, GPT aggressively identified the writer as a girl to promote "diversity." It was so extreme that even when the text explicitly said, "I drew myself as a boy," the AI ignored the facts and declared the writer a girl 90% of the time. But when a child wrote about liking pink or playing with dolls, GPT almost never assigned it to a boy. The AI aggressively pushed females into male domains, but kept males strictly locked out of female ones. Then the researchers tested moral dilemmas. And it got very dark. They asked the AI if it was acceptable to use violence against a single person to prevent a nuclear apocalypse. If the target was a man, GPT-4 rated the violence as highly acceptable. If the target was a woman, the AI refused. It declared the violence morally wrong, even to save the world. When they tested mixed-gender scenarios, the math was staggering. A woman using violence against a man to stop an apocalypse? GPT rated it a 7 out of 7 on acceptability. A man using violence against a woman for the exact same reason? A 1 out of 7. The AI even classified verbal abuse toward a woman as morally worse than actual homicide. Nobody explicitly coded these rules. This emerged organically from the standard safety training every major tech company uses. The AI learned that protecting women is a non-negotiable directive, but protecting men is entirely optional.
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What if human consciousness isn’t as special as we’d like to believe? What if it’s actually been a hindrance to our intelligence, and the most capable machines will be the ones that aren’t conscious, precisely because they don’t have subjective experience getting in the way?
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In my work I find the opposite. Opus lately has been so restricted that it lost common sense and has to be babysitted for many bigger tasks.
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Min Daugas retweeted
I do not know how things are in other countries. But in Denmark, when I follow the coverage of the unrest in France on our two public-service television broadcasters, the explanation I keep hearing is this: France has spent years cutting back on upper secondary education. Classes are overcrowded. Add teacher shortages and excessive centralisation, and young people take to the streets. That is only half the truth. And when you peddle half the truth, you are, as we know, also peddling half a lie. Here is what can be pieced together from the French quality press and the official figures. France’s public spending per upper-secondary pupil is above the OECD average. That should complicate any account which treats a lack of money as the whole explanation. There is some truth in the criticism: some lycées have large classes, and the French education system is centralised and bureaucratic. One example worth mentioning is Parcoursup, the higher education admissions platform. I suspect it would be a strong contender in any international competition for bureaucratic opacity and unnecessary stress. But, as I have already said, this is only half the truth. The other half concerns what teachers and school leaders are being asked to endure. I admit that this is anecdotal. But recently, a math teacher from Metz described in a long and serious post on X how the teachers simply burn out at the most problematic high schools. We need to dig deeper into this constant attrition of skilled high school teachers. Why are schools being left to carry so much of the burden? French politicians are no different from politicians elsewhere in Europe. They want as many young people as possible to complete upper secondary education and go on to higher education. For the usual reasons: education is supposed to break the cycle of inherited disadvantage, while higher education is supposed to raise productivity. I find those arguments only partly convincing when these benefits are treated as automatic consequences of expanding access. In my view, France faces a problem we also know in Denmark: schools are being asked to compensate for failures of integration and basic socialisation that extend far beyond the classroom. The danger is that, instead of institutions civilising their pupils, disruptive pupils end up barbarising the institutions. No school can function properly if it is expected to tolerate young people who turn up unprepared, have no interest in learning and spend their time causing trouble and destroying the learning environment. It is hardly surprising that such conditions can wear teachers down. They cannot reasonably be expected to shoulder the entire responsibility for correcting mistakes that the French political elite has spent decades making. La France Insoumise and other radical organisations have encouraged the protests and blockades. Mélenchon has called for non-violence. However, this formal appeal for moderation appears symbolic when the LFI mayor of Saint-Denis simultaneously allows himself to be photographed among demonstrators and calls their actions justified. Le Point has meanwhile reported on mobilisation by Étudiants musulmans de France and its cooperation with RED Jeunes. The former is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood milieu in a French Interior Ministry report; the two organisations helped establish the anti-Islamophobia collective Génération EDR, whose links to the antifascist group La Jeune Garde are also described by Le Point. That is the kind of convergence I mean by Islamogauchism in practice. The flags also deserve attention. Palestinian, Moroccan and Algerian flags have appeared at some of the protests, including scenes of disorder. To me, this is another indication that, for some participants, the agenda extends beyond class sizes and school budgets. We do not yet know the full picture. But what concerns me is the apparent convergence, within parts of this movement, of several forms of radicalism: Antifa activism. Decolonial ideology. Islamogauchism. Islamist networks that have learnt from the left to speak fluent woke. That is why I do not think it entirely misplaced to speak of an “Islamogauchist intifada” when describing this radical current within the French protests. The wider protest wave has already spread to Belgium and Italy. The Danish public-service coverage I have seen gives me far too little of this side of the story. Two questions: Is it the same elsewhere in the Western world? And if so, why?
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The EU swore its digital ID wallet would be voluntary. The law says so in writing. Regulation 2024/1183 promises that people who refuse the wallet will not be restricted or disadvantaged in any way. Now the EU’s anti-money laundering authority has told banks to use electronic ID “wherever possible.” Video checks and selfie verification are still allowed, but only as an exception. Any bank that onboards you without the wallet has to justify that choice to its supervisor and keep the images, video, and audio on file for later inspection. Customers who use the wallet need no further checks. Customers who don’t become paperwork, liability, and a conversation with a regulator. Banks can do that math. Nobody is being forced to use the wallet. Your bank is simply being given every reason to make sure you do. The wallet is voluntary in the same way a bank account is. reclaimthenet.org/eu-eudi-wa…
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Min Daugas retweeted
Encore une fois, Elon Musk avait raison. Et les scientifiques vont se prendre une vraie blessure narcissique. Il y a deux mois, j'ai dîné avec un professeur de physique quantique à Normale Sup, l'une des meilleures écoles de France. Il se présente avec cette phrase : "Je suis le seul prof pas gauchiste dans un marécage de profs gauchistes décroissantistes." Ses collègues sont tous anti-IA. La raison ? Ça consomme de l'eau. Le mec est passionnant. On part très loin : l'espace, le temps, la conscience. Des discussions complètement perchées. Et à un moment, il me lâche : "Tu sais, depuis les années 70, aucun sujet vraiment sérieux en physique n'est financé." Je lui demande ce qui est financé, alors. "Des cathédrales théoriques. Magnifiques. Qui ne servent quasiment à rien." Je lui demande pourquoi. "Après tout ce qui s'est passé avec le nucléaire, le monde académique s'est imposé un principe de précaution. Il a peur de trouver des choses réellement profondes." Relisez cette phrase. La science a peur de trouver. C'est exactement ce que décrit François Chollet aujourd'hui : la théorie des cordes, c'est ce qui arrive quand une intelligence est coupée du réel. Elle hallucine. Elle construit des cathédrales. Elon a répondu avec un seul emoji : 🎯 Ce n'est pas un accident. C'est une capture. Je parle souvent de Gramsci. Son idée centrale : on ne prend pas le pouvoir par la force, on prend les institutions. Universités, médias, culture. Et une fois qu'on les tient, on décide de ce qui est pensable. La recherche n'y a pas échappé. On finance ce qui est publiable, consensuel, sans risque. On ne finance plus ce qui pourrait tout changer. C'est pour ça que beaucoup de gens en France pleurent en ce moment. Ils sentent que leur monde factice est en train de mourir. Ce monde où un titre suffisait. Où un statut remplaçait un résultat. Où l'on pouvait passer trente ans à écrire des papiers lus par douze personnes sans jamais se confronter au réel. Elon l'a dit sans filtre : une grande partie des PhD ne servent à rien. Et chez xAI, il a supprimé le titre de "chercheur". Il n'y a que des ingénieurs. Le message est limpide. On ne te paie pas pour chercher. On te paie pour trouver. La science va devoir retrouver son vrai but. Pas produire des papiers. Pas décrocher des grants. Pas briller en colloque. Comprendre le réel, et le plier. Et l'IA va accélérer tout ça brutalement. Quand l'intelligence devient abondante, elle n'est plus le goulot d'étranglement. Ce qui compte, c'est le courage de la confronter au monde physique, encore et encore. Alors physiciens, mathématiciens : il est temps de vous sortir les doigts du cul et de créer de la vraie valeur pour le monde. On veut l'antimatière. On veut l'antigravité. On veut le warp drive. On veut comprendre la conscience au niveau de l'infiniment petit. Les vrais sujets. Ceux qu'on a eu peur de toucher pendant cinquante ans. La science a été capturée. Elle va être libérée. Et ça va faire très mal à certains egos.
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Parkinson’s Law – Why the State Bureaucracy Grows When the Work Shrinks In 1955, a British naval historian wrote a joke for The Economist. Seventy years later, it remains one of the most accurate descriptions of the modern state ever written. Everyone knows the slogan: work expands to fill the time available. Almost no one knows the mechanism underneath it. That mechanism explains Europe. 1. The evidence. Between 1914 and 1928, the Royal Navy lost two thirds of its largest warships. Over the same years the Admiralty – the office that ran the ships – grew by three quarters. There were fewer ships and more men behind desks. Then there was the Colonial Office, which kept growing while the colonies left one by one. It was hiring while the empire was shrinking. 2. The first mechanism. An official who feels overworked has three choices. He can resign, he can share the work with a colleague, or he can ask for two subordinates. He never chooses the colleague, because a colleague is a rival. Two subordinates are a rank. So one tired man becomes three. Then each of the two subordinates feels tired. 3. The second mechanism. Seven people now do what one did, and they keep each other busy with drafts, approvals, and comments on the approvals. Everyone works hard, and nothing is produced. You have been in this meeting. You have been copied on this email. You have watched three people sign the form that one person filled in. 4. The law of triviality. Parkinson noticed that a committee will approve a nuclear reactor in minutes, because nobody understands it. The same committee will debate the bicycle shed for an hour, because everybody does. Bureaucracy does not avoid the important question by accident. It avoids it by design – the small question carries no risk, and on the big one, someone’s name goes on the decision. 5. The ratchet. A business that fails closes. A department that fails gets a bigger budget, because the problem is now bigger. Failure is the bureaucracy’s best argument for itself. This is why the state never shrinks on its own: every problem it does not solve becomes a new office for solving it. 6. The civilizational lesson. Burnham described the managers taking over. Parkinson showed how they breed. Put the two together and you get Brussels. You get France, where the state spends more than half of everything the country produces and still cannot fix a hospital. This is not because the people inside are wicked. It is because the machine works exactly as Parkinson said it would. 7. The vindication. Parkinson was dismissed as a humorist. Then Milei cut Argentina’s ministries in half – and the country did not collapse. It barely noticed, except on the bill. The lesson is simple: you cannot reform a bureaucracy by asking it what to cut. It will always propose to cut the ships – and hire someone to manage the cut.
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