Monis (@mmonis) profile picture

Oversold bounce to reversals and Earning plays. Not Financial advise. Do you own due diligence. I do not have any paid services, please be aware of scammers.

California, USA
Joined September 2016
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I do not have any paid service or any intention to have one. I DO NOT have any paid, a. website, b. discord channel c. whatsApp Group d. Telegram e. Any other Please do not get scammed.
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This will give Optics a boost Next week, I will cash out on $LITE from LT, and replace it with and replace it with $COHR
BREAKING: Marvell $MRVL in advanced talks to buy Lumentum $LITE, per Bloomberg Lumentum makes optical components for AI data centers. A deal could be announced as soon as next week. Lumentum is worth about $83 billion; Marvell about $221 billion
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Long-term overhaul Overallocated, I consolidated on the price dip. (This is 70%) $NBIS - 30% $MU - 20% $LITE - 20% High Conviction (Each around 5%) $NTSK, $RDDT, $CRDO, $APP, $ALAB, $AAOI Killed the third bucket nitter.gq/mmonis/status/21075027…
Over the last 2-3 months, I have reduced my LT to 4-core position, with a combined allocation of 60% 4-high conviction, with a combined allocation of 30% 4 high-risk positions with a 2.5% allocation each
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Moved to cash after $GOOG earnings to protect profits
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$MSFT - and it played out to the book
$MSFT - With massive restructuring underway, $MSFT could be a good candidate for an earnings-pop move. Not planning to participate, though
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The best opportunity is in tech: AI, optics, and memory. Don't let other folks fool you into believing otherwise. The funny part is that these tickers don't know where their declining MAs are. They run and run hard nonetheless. $NBIS - 23% in 3 days; if you are waiting for MA's, whose fault is it Many examples: $AAOI, $MU, $LITE etc
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Rebought $MU and $NBIS after no rate hike
Closed $MU, not enough cushion for FOMC volatility; looks like the market is waiting. Reduced open risk into FOMC $SOXL - 10% (trimmed by 50%) $NBIS - 35% (trimmed 50% approx) $CLS - 8% (Unchanged)
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A shoe company sends two sales folks to a remote place where people do not wear shoes A classic business parable. The company gets two very different telegrams back: Salesperson 1: “No opportunity. Nobody here wears shoes.” Salesperson 2: “Huge opportunity. Nobody here wears shoes!” The story usually highlights the difference between a fixed/pessimistic mindset and an opportunistic one—same data, opposite conclusions. I believe in the latter mindset. When the market is moving down, I believe it creates an imbalance between a company's value and its stock price. I trust that company growth, profitability, margins, income, and FCF tell a better story than most far-out predictions.
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Closed $MU, not enough cushion for FOMC volatility; looks like the market is waiting. Reduced open risk into FOMC $SOXL - 10% (trimmed by 50%) $NBIS - 35% (trimmed 50% approx) $CLS - 8% (Unchanged)
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So far, the breadth has been shrinking.
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$MSFT - With massive restructuring underway, $MSFT could be a good candidate for an earnings-pop move. Not planning to participate, though
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What was your fill for $MU?
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On my watch today - Memory stocks $SNDK and $MU - if good R/R entry is found
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Open Positions: I trimmed yesterday to close the margin $NBIS - 72% $SOXL - 20% $CLS - 8%
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Major Market Movers, Wed Oct 28 Market Fed day: The FOMC decision is at 2:00 PM ET, with Warsh’s press conference to follow; the expected outcome is a hawkish hold that sets up a December hike. Oil risk premium building: UBS lifts its year-end Brent forecast to $110, the US warns ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, and WSJ reports Gulf allies were told to prepare for a short, intense Iran campaign after the midterms. September goods trade deficit widened to $134.9B (est. $130.2B) on a 7.5% jump in capital-goods imports; mortgage applications rose 3.4% as the 30-year rate eased to 7.41%. KOSPI jumped ~6% overnight on memory-chip strength; in the US, the equal-weight S&P is beating the cap-weighted index by 4 points in October as leadership broadens beyond AI. Stock Movers $AVGO - CEO Hock Tan personally rescued the $63B Anthropic chip financing (~1.7GW of XPU compute, deliveries from 2027); also seen benefiting as OpenAI moves to buy Google TPUs $MU - SK Hynix says memory shortages last through 2030, with 2027 DRAM demand growing 20%+ and over half of 2027–28 capacity locked under long-term deals $NVDA - Oracle expands Vera Rubin superclusters to multi-gigawatt scale and puts Vera CPUs into production for OpenAI’s agent workloads $CBRS - Cerebras and Oracle partner to bring Cerebras inference to Oracle Cloud in 2027; stock rose 9% $META - Upsized $25B share sale priced at $625 drew ~5x demand $AMZN - FCC approves the Globalstar acquisition, bringing Amazon Leo into satellite-to-phone service $CEG - Secures a conditional DOE loan commitment of up to $5B to expand nuclear output $VRT - Q3 crush (revenue $4.3B vs $3.76B est., organic orders +100%), FY26 guide raised; up ~16% premarket $HOOD - Down ~7% after Q3 revenue and EPS came in light and crypto revenue fell 55% YoY Earnings Reported $STX - Earnings beat: Revenue $4.2B vs $4.14B est., adj. EPS $7.68 vs $7.42; Q2 guide $4.8B revenue / $9.20 EPS, both well above consensus LTM Revenue: $13,767M, NTM Revenue: $20,768M, Revenue growth %: 50.9% EV: $153,540M, EV/NTM Revenue: 7.4x, Adj: 0.15 $GEV - Earnings beat: revenue $12.6B vs $11.99B est.; orders $29.3B (+96% organic), backlog $197B; FY26 revenue guide raised to $46.5–47.5B LTM Revenue: $43,999M, NTM Revenue: $51,289M, Revenue growth %: 16.6% EV: $228,064M, EV/NTM Revenue: 4.4x, Adj: 0.27 $SKHY - Earnings beat on revenue and operating profit: revenue $78.9B vs $74.8B est., operating profit $62.8B vs $58.5B (80% margin), net profit miss; ~$75B in 2026 shareholder returns LTM Revenue: n/a, NTM Revenue: $338,466M, Revenue growth %: n/a EV: $1,010,569M, EV/NTM Revenue: 3.0x, Adj: n/a Earnings Today After Market $GOOG - Alphabet $NOW - ServiceNow $MSFT - Microsoft $KLAC - KLA $FTNT - Fortinet $VKTX - Viking Therapeutics
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Fear to Fomo??
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$NBIS - For me, there is no more rewarding setup than oversold bounce and reversals Experience one in making, Doesn't matter where MA are..
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$CBRS -Dead cat bounce or reversal?
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$CLS : Checks on FCF, EPS Growth and PEG is 0.21 Why PEG? A P/E on its own can’t tell a cheap stock from a slow-growing one. A 15x P/E is expensive for a company growing earnings 5% a year and cheap for one growing 70%. PEG divides the P/E by the growth rate, which turns the question into “what am I paying per point of earnings growth?” It’s the earnings-side twin of Adj, which does the same thing with EV/Sales and revenue growth. The usual benchmark is 1.0, from Peter Lynch’s rule of thumb that a fairly priced company’s P/E roughly equals its growth rate: - Below 1: you’re paying less than one turn of P/E per point of growth, conventionally “cheap for its growth.” - Around 1: fairly priced on that heuristic. - Above 1: paying up. For context, mega-cap quality names often trade at 1.5–2.5+ on consensus.
$CLS : Adj (refer to image) is a growth-adjusted revenue multiple: Adj = (EV / NTM Revenue) ÷ NTM revenue growth % It answers one question: how much am I paying for each point of revenue growth? Lower means cheaper per unit of growth There are very few companies better than $CLS
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$CLS : Adj (refer to image) is a growth-adjusted revenue multiple: Adj = (EV / NTM Revenue) ÷ NTM revenue growth % It answers one question: how much am I paying for each point of revenue growth? Lower means cheaper per unit of growth There are very few companies better than $CLS
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