Global Equity Analyst | London | Investing in the world's best businesses | Not investment advice
London, England
Joined April 2025
- Tweets87
- Following300
- Followers3.7K
- Likes91
Moats & Multiples retweeted
Won’t be safe to buy compounders again until Fintwit thinks Chris Hohn is a retarded dinosaur
Moats & Multiples retweeted
Interesting charts via Goldman Sachs, who are highlighting that U.S. Uber monthly active users are growing faster than first party AV offerings (since at least Feb 2026), and Uber riders continue to have far higher engagement than AV only riders.
Moats & Multiples retweeted
SHOCKING: Many neocloud executives we spoke with feel that if they have non-NVIDIA networking gear on their cluster, or if their cloud has an AMD GPU or TPU offering, NVIDIA will retaliate. They feel that retaliation includes not giving early allocation or no longer supporting a potential IPO/VC raise.(1/3)🧵
Moats & Multiples retweeted
Back of the envelope $SPGI
$SPGI trades for $120.82B market cap.
Apply $MCO current 26.31x NTM multiple to $SPGI 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 business ($3.14B LTM operating profit) → $82.61B
Apply $MSCI 27.20x NTM multiple to $SPGI 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 business ($1.33B LTM operating profit) → $36.17B
𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 + 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 = $118.78B
$SPGI entire market cap is $120.82B
___
You’re basically getting Energy (Platts), Market Intelligence, and the Mobility spin-off for free
And here’s the value to those:
𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 (Platts): $975M LTM operating income (14.72% CAGR from 2021–LTM) — Conservative 15x multiple → $14.63B
𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞: $1.21B LTM operating income assuming 8.5x multiple (IYKYK) since according to Mr Market it’s never going to grow → $9.68B
𝐌𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 (spin-off): low-end $7B
All together = $31.31B
___
𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞: ~$150B, or ~25% higher than today’s market cap (~$510 share price) — $118.78B + $31.31B = $150B
All while margins keep expanding and >80% of FCF is returned to shareholders
At some point, Mr Market will take notice
For now, let the accretive buybacks continue
___
Post inspired by @moats_multiples who shared an excellent piece titled “Inside TCI’s Conference: The Anti-AI portfolio” — link below 👇🏽
moatsandmultiples.substack.c…
Moats & Multiples retweeted
This guy went to Chris honh’s conference and write about it
moatsandmultiples.substack.c…
Moats & Multiples retweeted
TCI's Chris Hohn on $GOOG and financial infrastructure ($V $MA $MCO $SPGI $DB1
"Within the technology sphere, TCI maintains positions in Google and SAP. Whilst they didn’t really discuss SAP, they seemed quite bullish on Google and its prospects in AI. Notably, they pointed out that unlike its peers, Google has a strong presence across every layer of the AI stack and that AI was a self-reinforcing competitive advantage in its other businesses e.g., AI has made the search business even better for users and customers. TCI project Google Cloud to grow at a 45% p.a. rate to 2030 and see it as one of the big winners in AI."
"There was quite a bit of discussion around businesses in what TCI labels financial markets infrastructure – Visa, S&P Global, Moody’s, Deutsche Borse. The common seam through these discussions was the standards/protocol nature of these businesses which makes them near impossible to disrupt. All the while, most of these companies seem to be trading at decades low valuations on the fear of AI disruption from the market. TCI’s conviction here was evidenced by the increased allocation of capital to these businesses which the firm hopes will generate a high-teens net IRR over the next five years."
moatsandmultiples.substack.c…
