Shane C. Murphy, CMT

Love how Smallcaps, particularly Smallcap Value, has performed through the last few weeks of volatility. $VBR nearly double the return of $SPY over last 12months..

Thank you @CMTAssociation for including my work!

When a client asks about an individual stock after a big run-up, I like to show them how far price sits above its 200-day moving average. The 200-day is a common gauge of the long-term trend. If a stock is far enough above, it could fall 50-70% and still not violate the technical uptrend. Pointing out that fact will often shift the focus of the conversation from “potential reward” to risk management. It opens the door to talk stop losses, position size and how the asset may or may not fit into their broader portfolio.

Self-Storage REITs at new multi-year highs. Arguably recession resistant.. $PSA $CUBE $EXR

The S&P 1500 Machinery & Heavy Transportation Index is an excellent leading indicator. Net-new orders for heavy machinery often peak months before the broad market catches up. Look at the last 10yrs of data: ahead of every major top, this sub-industry index rolled over and failed to form a higher high. Cyclical names like $CAT , $PCAR, and $CMI are in their own respective bear markets. Drawdowns ranging from 20-40% from the cycle highs.

Gratitude is the solution to all my problems.

Honored to be included!

Real nasty 1M candle on EEM relative strength charts. 6-months of improvement erased in just 30-days. Stairs up, elevator down as they say. $EEM $URTH

The Emerging Markets Bonds vs. US Treasuries price ratio failed to confirm the S&P 500's all-time high in early Oct. A divergence b/w these two price series is extremely notable IMO. $EMB $IEF $SPY

Stocks vs. Bonds 1M ratio - A bearish engulfing pattern is indicative of negative short-term forward returns. Bonds played their role over the trailing 1-month. The long bond is +5.6%, stocks -1%. $SPY $TLT

A bullish engulfing pattern has formed on the Value vs. Growth monthly ratio, a setup indicative of positive short-term forward returns. Traders should anticipate follow through in favor of Value. $SPYV $SPYG

The facts of the matter... 🎃

Kalshi's latest marketing email, targeting NYC-area small business owners.. “Worried a snowy month will hurt your business? Place a bet on it." Who out there actually knows a small business that hedges risk on Kalshi? Nobody. This is a gambling app trying to market itself as a financial tool to people who, honestly can't afford to lose. It’s gross.

$SPHB High Beta vs. S&P 500 $SPY Bumping its head on a positive sloping 200-day avg.