Network Thoughts

International services by Indian carriers - Winter 26 ✈️The table below captures the international operations in terms of daily scheduled departures by Indian carriers overseas as offered for sale for the last week of November 2026. Three interesting trends stand out ✈️Indian carriers at a macro level are planning similar levels of departure like last year. However in this case, seat counts (& ASKM's) are likely to be significantly lower given IndiGo's elimination of widebody flying as well as the AI group growing departures with the IX fleet of narrow bodies while cutting back less viable routes on Air India metal (eg ATQ LGW or DEL VIE) ✈️Last winter we had seen a cut from the South airports to the gulf and an increase in the rest of country. That trend has reversed a little with all malabar coast airports growing this winter. Indeed Kochi moves into 4th place ahead of Hyderabad and Chennai ✈️The other discernible trend (small now, could be larger over the coming years) is the growth in service outside of the traditional metro and south to gulf corridors. Air India Express has taken the lead in this regard with service to the gulf from Surat, Indore, Bhopal (announced, not yet on sale), Guwahati and Goa Mopa as also Bangkok services from Vizag, Varanasi, Kochi and Indore (announced, not yet on sale). Read with the growth in service to Ahmedabad by Vietnam carriers for instance, it shows a healthy growth in traffic beyond the big cities. Indian carriers are not constrained by Port of call. And while there are bilateral constraints in terms of seat or frequency rights, Indian carriers are not really (yet) leveraging the Asean open skies market ✈️Finally, on last evenings announcement of shifting service from BOM to NMI, the movement of 20 odd daily departures will put NMI into the top 4 and subject to further additions potentially into top 3 as well. However it is revealing that non Dubai/non Abu Dhabi middle east services will move soon - protecting the valuable (& profitable) Dubai / Abu Dhabi / Doha (for IndiGo) and other markets where the customer mix may be unhappy with a shift to NMI. That said, given the need to ramp up domestic connections to feed these middle east flights, I do anticipate NMI gaining domestic services to markets in east, central and south to feed these flights. That in the long term will entrench BLR as the firm #2 in the domestic market ✈️One final note - why the 0.1s and 0.3s etc - it is because a majority of routes flown are serviced on a non daily basis, sometimes even as low as once or twice a week.

State of the Aviation nation Winter Edit Next Sunday (25th October) marks the start of the IATA winter schedule. This also comes bang in the middle of the festive season leading to year end - generally a peak period for flying. I give less credence to the official schedule shared by the DGCA and track instead the flights put on sale by the airlines. ✈️I have been tracking flights offered for sale by Indian carriers over the last several years (4-5 times an year given the multiple peaks and troughs) and November 2026 will be a significant low from the perspective of departures and hence passengers, giving one indication of the health of the underlying discretionary economy ✈️Headline - at a top 20 airport level (>90% of all flights), the total domestic departures by the big 5 airlines (IndiGo, Air India and Air India Express, Akasa and Spicejet), show a 7% decline vs flights offered at the same time the previous year (last week of November in both periods, eliminates any short term festival special flight bias). ✈️It is lower than May 26 as well by about 2% and lower than December 2024 as well. This is despite significant capacity addition and new airports like Navi Mumbai and Jewar entering the scene. This decline is across the board - Lower at slot constrained airports like Mumbai and Pune but sharp everywhere else. ✈️To be fair, the decline in seats will be lower than the decline in departures due to capacity upguaging (ATR -> A320 -> A321) and aircraft reconversion (IX & QP have increased seat counts of their existing max aircraft) ✈️Goa Mopa and Jaipur are the worst impacted reflecting airline thinking with their data on high fares impacting leisure travel. But the decline is secular & barring Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru & Pune, is in double digits everywhere ✈️Frequency cuts impact both metro - metro routes as well as metro - tier 2 routes. In this high fuel cost and depreciated rupee environment, airlines will protect their most profitable routes and cut everything else which is why barring Akasa, every other airline has cut back and in the Air India group, the lower cost lower fare Air India Express is picking up a growing share of domestic flying ✈️One final point on the green field airports - it is clear that passenger preference stays with the old airport - whether it's BOM (vs NMI), GOI (vs GOX) or DEL (vs DXN) - all the greenfield airports are down sequentially in terms of departures vs this summer. It is creditable that NMI is in the top 10 but there is a massive gap between that airport and the next highest which is Pune (PNQ). DXN is not even in the top 30 right now.

Air India adds capacity to East Asia Effective November 1, Air India goes double daily on Delhi Kuala Lumpur (currently served 10 weekly) From October 25, service goes daily on Delhi Seoul (ICN, currently served 6 weekly) AI 2384 DEL 1350 KUL 2200 AI 2386 DEL 2055 KUL 0500 (+1) AI 2385 KUL 0600 DEL 0915 AI 2387 KUL 2300 DEL 0220 Both daily flights on a320neo AI 312 DEL 0010 ICN 1030 AI 313 ICN 1205 DEL 1720 daily service on 2 class 788 @networkthoughts

Air India starts 3rd daily service on Delhi Colombo with the start of the winter season (October 25th). All 3 services are on A321 ceo aircraft. Mumbai Colombo maintained at 1 daily AI 277 DEL 0030 CMB 0410 AI 283 DEL 0715 CMB 1055 AI 281 DEL 1240 CMB 1605 AI 282 CMB 0510 DEL 0845 AI 284 CMB 1215 DEL 1550 AI 278 CMB 1705 DEL 2050 @networkthoughts

IndiGo is no longer offering on sale Bengaluru Salem and Hyderabad Salem from the start of the winter season (Oct 25th). In its place, Chennai Salem is offered 2 daily with ATR 72 aircraft 6E 7393 MAA 1100 SXV 1210 6E 7395 MAA 1540 SXV 1650 6E 7394 SXV 1230 MAA 1335 6E 7396 SXV 1710 MAA 1815 @networkthoughts

IndiGo moves daily service to Jabalpur, Hindon Ghaziabad and Vishakapatnam from Navi Mumbai (NMI) to Mumbai (BOM) airport from the start of the winter schedule (Oct 25th). Hubli service has moved to BOM earlier this month. Jharsaguda, Kannur and Madurai service, all 3 of which had started from Navi Mumbai is not resuming. Madurai & Kannur will be served from BOM @networkthoughts

Air India starts 2 way easy connect with Ahmedabad just like they did with Amritsar. DEL AMD service starts 25th October The Easy connect flights are bookable on the air India app : DEL - AMD & DEL - ATQ are only bookable with international origin itineraries whereas AMD DEL & ATQ DEL are bookable for domestic pax as well AI 1118 DEL 1140 AMD 1320 AI 1120 DEL 1640 AMD 1820 AI 1117 AMD 0815 DEL 1000 AI 1121 AMD 2020 DEL 2205 @networkthoughts

The Non UAE GCC network of Air India group in winter 26 Air India group will offer 228 weekly frequencies to the non UAE GCC countries this winter. In contrast to the UAE operation, this is more concentrated in the Malabar coast and Mumbai (BOM) offers the most frequency while Kozhikode (CCJ) has the widest breadth of destinations including Salalah (SLL) in Oman. Riyadh sees a reallocation of capacity with Air India offering a daily service from Delhi & Mumbai and IX offering connectivity from Lucknow, Kozhikode, Kannur, Bengaluru & Thiruvananthapuram. Bahrain & Dammam offer potential for increase given bilaterals (DMM is a free port) but the rest would be constrained by bilateral seat caps @networkthoughts

Air India group UAE operations in winter 26 Post the war related closures, AI & IX are restoring capacity to the UAE but from a more varied set of points including several new monopoly routes. The seasonal focus given the wedding season are markets in the north, west and central which are also new migration routes. All city pairs are on sale barring Amritsar Abu Dhabi & Mangalore Ras Al Khaimah - both of which are showing on Google flights but not yet available for purchase. Of course there is still 45+ days to the start of the new schedule and hence changes should be expected In all AI group will offer 325 weekly departures from the UAE to a staggering 22 Indian airports of which Delhi gets the most flights and seats. Interestingly of the 49 airport pairs on offer, 21 are monopoly routes with IX focusing on new albeit thin city pairs with no competition not just from Indian carriers but also Emirates, Etihad, Air Arabia etc @networkthoughts

Air India group domestic capacity additions at BOM for winter 26 Like in Delhi, Air India has added capacity on select Metro - non metro pairs in the winter schedule effective October 25th ✈️BOM IXC goes up to 24x weekly (currently 18 weekly) ✈️BOM JAI 47 weekly ✈️BOM IDR 3 daily (up from 2 daily) ✈️BOM NAG 4 daily (up from 2 daily, IX will fly 1x daily) ✈️BOM GOI upto 8 daily ✈️BOM JSA 1 daily new introduction Further changes possible @networkthoughts

Air India Express springs a surprise with 4 weekly Kochi Bangkok service in the winter schedule IX 476 COK 2215 BKK 0355 IX 475 BKK 0455 COK 0740 4 weekly service on Boeing 738 Flights start October 25 @networkthoughts

Air India adds capacity on Delhi - mini metro cities in winter schedule Air india group has started updating its winter domestic schedule with the following additions ✈️Delhi Srinagar 8x daily (last winter was 6x) ✈️Delhi Amritsar 8x daily (including 2 easy connect flights) ✈️Delhi Bhuj 2x daily (new morning departure) ✈️Delhi Raipur 4x daily (up from 3x daily last winter) ✈️Delhi Udaipur 4x daily (up from 3x daily last winter) ✈️Delhi Kochi 8x daily (up from 7x daily) ✈️Delhi Ahmedabad upto 11x daily (including 1x daily Air India Express service) ✈️Delhi Gaya 2x daily (announced previously) Further changes possible as we are still 45 days away from the start of the schedule @networkthoughts

Air India Express makes Surat Dubai (DXB) service daily from the start of the winter schedule In addition, they are adding daily Navi Mumbai Surat flights from the same date (possibly to position aircraft) IX 1534 NMI 0500 STV 0555 IX 1535 STV 2315 NMI 0010 IX 335 STV 0710 DXB 0855 IX 336 DXB 0955 STV 1415 In addition Surat Sharjah is offered 4 weekly @networkthoughts

IndiGo has added Delhi Kishangarh (KQH) and Delhi Bareilly (BEK) to complement Noida service to both these airports. Service started 1st July onwards and continues through winter with ATR 72 operating DEL KQH 4 weekly complements DXN KQH 3 weekly operation DEL BEK 3 weekly complements DXN BEK 4 weekly operation Ahmedabad Kishangarh stays suspended @networkthoughts

IndiGo ATR ops at Navi Mumbai (NMI) in winter 26 IndiGo continues to base 3 atrs in Navi Mumbai (NMI) in the winter schedule starting October 25 but with a slightly different route profile vs summer ✈️Navi Mumbai - Ahmedabad will be served 3 daily with ATR services including a base departure ✈️Navi Mumbai - Rajkot Hirasar served twice daily including a base departure ✈️Navi Mumbai - Kolhapur served twice daily including a base departure ✈️Navi Mumbai - Bhavnagar served twice daily ✈️Navi Mumbai - Diu served once daily The Diu flight offers a one stop connection to Ahmedabad. Aircraft routed as NMI DIU AMD DIU NMI. In consequence, Surat Diu is no longer on sale. ✈️There is no ATR scheduled between Navi Mumbai and Goa Dabolim. Consequently Dabolim Coimbatore and Dabolim Nasik / IXU are no longer on sale @networkthoughts

In the winter schedule, Air India is increasing and premiumising it's seat capacity on Mumbai / Delhi Dubai starting October 25. All 24 weekly Mumbai (BOM) Dubai (DXB) flights will offer premium economy with 10x weekly 789, 2x weekly retrofit 3 class 788 & 10x weekly 320neo scheduled - all offering premium economy. From Delhi in contrast, service will be maintained at 4 daily but upguaged with more seats on offer with 1x daily on the 777-300 er, 13x weekly 2 class 788, 6x weekly 320 neo complemented by a Saturdays only op where the 320ceo fills in for the neo and the 3 class 788 for a 2 class 788, thereby ensuring 1x daily premium economy service. @networkthoughts

The next 2 long haul routes to see Air India's retrofit 3 class 788 aircraft will be daily Bengaluru to London Heathrow from January 1 & 5 weekly Mumbai to Tokyo Haneda from 1st February. With this, both London Heathrow & Tokyo Haneda will only be served by Air India's new product. As more aircraft return from retrofits, we should this network increasing @networkthoughts

Air India upguages Delhi to Manila and Mumbai to Mauritius from 321LR to 2 class 788 series aircraft in the winter schedule reflecting fairly quick maturity of both routes. Both started as 4/5 weekly, moved to daily service fairly recently and now upguaged. Delhi Manila will move to 788 from 25th October with slightly tweaked timings (1150 departure from DEL). Mumbai Mauritius will move to 788 from 1st January @networkthoughts

Air India adds seasonal capacity out of Mumbai and Delhi for winter starting last week October unless noted otherwise Mumbai Tokyo Haneda moves to 5x weekly (summer 4x) from 7th January Mumbai Frankfurt moves to 6x weekly (summer and previously 5x weekly) Delhi Milan MXP moves to daily from 4/5 weekly earlier New York JFK served with one daily each from Delhi and Mumbai Newark (EWR) served 4x weekly from Delhi and 3x weekly from Mumbai @networkthoughts

Air India adds 3x weekly Delhi Melbourne service in the winter schedule AI 310 DEL 1345 MEL 0730 AI 311 MEL 0915 DEL 1635 Served 3 weekly on 2 class 788 aircraft Total service is 10x weekly - 7x weekly on the 77W and 3x on 788 marking a massive capacity addition vs last winter @networkthoughts