Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8)
California, USA
Joined May 2008
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Tesla's Q3 2026 earnings call. The stock dropped after hours, but the quarter was stronger than the headlines.
From the $TSLA Q3 2026 Update:
Free cash flow: $1.5B (positive, vs. -$1.1B in Q2)
Total GAAP gross margin: 19.6% (up 280 bp from Q2); automotive gross margin 18.5%
Energy generation & storage gross margin: ~33%; 13.7 GWh storage deployed
FSD bought by over 75% of new North American deliveries. 1.74M active FSD subscriptions. 260,000 more than last quarter.
Cumulative unsupervised Robotaxi miles grew 8X quarter over quarter. Ashok reported 3.3 million unsupervised robotaxi miles as of October 20. About 400,000 to 500,000 per week in October.
AI5 chips in April 2027. Customer cars start joining the Robotaxi fleet in Q2 2027
Optimus targets from 20,000 a week in Q4 2027 (a 1 million/year run rate)
Factories scaling for 5 million cars a year by 2030
TeraFab Lab test chips mid-2027, volume production Q3 2028
858 registered robotaxi in Texas, crowdsource count 32 in Florida. Combined 890. $TSLA
Dallas adding ~300 cybercab in November. Houston in November or December.
Adding 550,000 miles per week in latest week in October. 1.3 million added in 20 days in October with more added in the later week. 13% of the 4 million miles per week of Waymo. Waymo claims 4000 cars. With 17% growth per week. Tesla likely reaches 5000 vehicles by end of 2026.
TESLA Earnings Call Livestream xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1pKkOXlDy…
Unsupervised driving becomes a big deal for total Tesla earnings and profits in Q2 and Q3 2027. $TSLA
Let me explain reality… if you have but sixty seconds:
They were targeting Elon
They were targeting him with fake charges because the socialist-industrial complex is terrified that he would expose their long grift.
They came after him for the Model 3 and Elon’s claims around its potential.
That potential was realized, and it became, along with the Model Y, the best-selling electric vehicle ever created.
These were fake charges to try to stop somebody from building the best category-defining product.
Let that sink in: that's how evil these motherfuckers are.
The loooooong grift has been exposed: socialist grifters are stealing our tax dollars to fund fringe lunacy, NGOs and government programs without oversight or audits.
They’re parasites incapable of creating any product or service that has to compete in the open market.
Elon creates a couple of cutting-edge products each year, and half of them succeed.
Some of them actually change the world. Some of them fail brutally.
It's called capitalism. It's called creation.
This is what moves the human condition forward: trying things.
Trying really hard things.
Socialists come for the people building valuable products and services — that’s the tell
Keep your eye out for the people who've created nothing and risked nothing, but who are attacking the people who risk everything to create Something.
That's the tell.
April 2027, Optimus will have AI5 chips integrated.
They will make 10,000 to 20,000 Optimus to do training and data gathering.
Tesla will have factories scaled to 5 million cars per year by 2030. I, Nextbigfuture, believe this will be 3 million more autonomous vehicles. Cybercabs mostly, maybe 500K semi (semi will be robotrucks). 2 million regular model Y and 3.
In North America 75% of cars sold also had the monthly FSD subscription.
It will be about 12 months to get to 20,000 optimus bots per week (1 million per year run rate).
Next year for optimus to be delivered to companies outside of Tesla. They have to solve reliability and maintenance.
I identified the 6 month ROI packback for SpaceX GB300 data centers last week. Which Elon stated is possible in 2027 in yesterday Q3 SpaceX earnings call. $SPCX @elonmusk I was publishing graphics and making videos and making posts about it. I also had the $500 billion to $1 trillion revenue target. Rubin minihard data centers have more compute than colossus 2, the largest compute AI data center.
This cost would mean $13 billion per 220,000 B300 chip minihard. 5 month of construction time and completing one per month. Leasing for $26.7 billion per year. Payback in 6 month. Contracts are 3 month minimum and 3 month cancel. Full payback guaranteed. $SPCX @elonmusk @aaronburnett
Clear path visible by SpaceX executives for several hundred billions of starlink direct to cellphone revenue. $SPCX
220000 GB300s is the minihard per month and they will start doing 2 minihards per month.
23 GW total by end of 2027. Thirteen to fourteen 700 MW rubin minihard is 10GW incremental. Twenty eight rubins is incremental 20 GW. Also they could switch to rubin ultra chips. $SPCX
SpaceX will have 10Gw of AI data center added next year and a non-zero chance of having 20 GW of AI data center. The issue is how many chips Nvidia and TSMC and micron can provide for them. The power, land and shell problem is solved for SpaceX.
SpaceX $SPCX will be 20 launch tower in Louisiana starting around 2029.
They plan weekly Starship launches in the first half of 2026 and then twice weekly and then perhaps daily in 2027. This would be 100-200 launches in 2027.
SpaceX Q3 Earnings LIVESTREAM xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1rxmqpMoo…
Raymond James makes a conservative assessment of the cashflow for SpaceX minihard data centers. spacex seems to be monetizing better than Raymond James estimate for 2027. $SPCX
Raymond James just laid out a pretty wild $SPCX "Dirt to Orbit" model where 8 GW of terrestrial AI capacity could generate ~$30B in annual FCF from 2028–2031 to help fund orbital data centers.
The financing structure is pretty interesting because partners would cover ~60% of each GW reducing SpaceX's upfront investment to ~$15B per GW while potentially generating a 32% IRR from its AI compute business.
