I built a simulator that re-prices luck in an NFL game. Every loose ball, field goal, and dropped pass is rerun 160K times. Introducing the NFL Deserve-to-Win % Built on data gathered via #nflverse All code, models, and research can be found here: github.com/dgrifka/nfl_simul… 🧵

Net lucky wins through wk 7. Measured using actual wins minus sum of each game's modeled win likelihood. Luckiest: MIN +2.7, DEN +1.8, CHI +1.7 Unluckiest: NYJ -2.3, HOU -1.9, LA -1.4 Data: nflverse #NFL

🏈 DAL @ PHI, Week 7 Final: DAL 38, PHI 21 Deserve-to-Win: DAL 89% / PHI 11% Data: nflverse #NFL #DallasCowboys #FlyEaglesFly

🏈 KC @ SEA, Week 7 Final: KC 3, SEA 20 Deserve-to-Win: KC 25% / SEA 75% Data: nflverse #NFL #ChiefsKingdom #Seahawks

🏈 LA @ LV, Week 7 Final: LA 35, LV 21 Deserve-to-Win: LA 87% / LV 13% Data: nflverse #NFL #RamsHouse #RaiderNation

🏈 GB @ DET, Week 7 Final: GB 17, DET 20 Deserve-to-Win: GB 8% / DET 92% Data: nflverse #NFL #GoPackGo #OnePride

🏈 DEN @ ARI, Week 7 Final: DEN 30, ARI 16 Deserve-to-Win: DEN 86% / ARI 14% Data: nflverse #NFL #BroncosCountry #BirdGang

🏈 CLE @ TEN, Week 7 Final: CLE 27, TEN 24 Deserve-to-Win: CLE 95% / TEN 5% Data: nflverse #NFL #DawgPound #TitanUp

🚨 MIA are luck merchants! 🚨 🏈 MIA @ NYJ, Week 7 Final: MIA 28, NYJ 25 Deserve-to-Win: MIA 28% / NYJ 72% Data: nflverse #NFL #PhinsUp #JetUp

🏈 IND @ MIN, Week 7 Final: IND 10, MIN 16 Deserve-to-Win: IND 27% / MIN 73% Data: nflverse #NFL #ForTheShoe #Skol

🏈 NYG @ HOU, Week 7 Final: NYG 27, HOU 21 Deserve-to-Win: NYG 86% / HOU 14% Data: nflverse #NFL #BigBlue #HTownMade

🏈 TB @ CAR, Week 7 Final: TB 43, CAR 13 Deserve-to-Win: TB 89% / CAR 11% Data: nflverse #NFL #WeAreTheKrewe #KeepPounding

🏈 CIN @ BAL, Week 7 Final: CIN 35, BAL 13 Deserve-to-Win: CIN 91% / BAL 9% Data: nflverse #NFL #WhoDey #RavensFlock

🚨 ATL are luck merchants! 🚨 🏈 SF @ ATL, Week 7 Final: SF 20, ATL 29 Deserve-to-Win: SF 72% / ATL 28% Data: nflverse #NFL #FTTB #DirtyBirds

🏈 PIT @ NO, Week 7 Final: PIT 16, NO 10 Deserve-to-Win: PIT 74% / NO 26% Data: nflverse #NFL #HereWeGo #Saints

🚨 CHI are luck merchants! 🚨 🏈 NE @ CHI, Week 7 Final: NE 24, CHI 30 Deserve-to-Win: NE 74% / CHI 26% Data: nflverse #NFL #NEPats #DaBears

Net lucky wins through wk 6. Measured using actual wins minus sum of each game's modeled win likelihood. Luckiest: MIN +2.4, DEN +1.7, CLE +1.5 Unluckiest: HOU -1.8, NYJ -1.6, LA -1.6 Data: nflverse #NFL

🏈 WAS @ SF, Week 6 Final: WAS 17, SF 23 Deserve-to-Win: WAS 30% / SF 70% Data: nflverse #NFL #RaiseHail #FTTB

🏈 DAL @ GB, Week 6 Final: DAL 13, GB 23 Deserve-to-Win: DAL 41% / GB 59% Data: nflverse #NFL #DallasCowboys #GoPackGo

🏈 BUF @ LV, Week 6 Final: BUF 33, LV 30 Deserve-to-Win: BUF 50% / LV 50% Data: nflverse #NFL #BillsMafia #RaiderNation

🏈 LAC @ KC, Week 6 Final: LAC 6, KC 22 Deserve-to-Win: LAC 0% / KC 100% Data: nflverse #NFL #BoltUp #ChiefsKingdom