@ngreenberg

Former sportswriter and stats geek (not nerd) for @washingtonpost. I got science for any occasion. Postulating theorems, formulating equations.

fancystats.substack.com/
Joined May 2008
  • Tweets173K
  • Following417
  • Followers18.9K
14.4KMedia
Hot Seat, Cold Math: Which NFL coaches are in trouble after Week 2? The probability every NFL head coach will be replaced before next season. Commanders Dan Quinn is not as high as you would think. At least not yet. fancystats.substack.com/p/ho…
🤖 Made with AI
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Tangotiger 🍁@tangotiger22h
Our friend @EricTulsky has thoughts on xGoals Watch to the end
Ches@chesometerOct 26
TULSKY BIG DOGG’D SONNY MEHTA LMFAO 🤣🤣🤣 THAT’S MY GOAT RIGHT THERE #CarolinaCulture
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Counterpoint: there will be a different type of excitement
Silas Monadu@Silasmonadu7h
Replying to @ngreenberg
They’re gonna be a fringe playoff team post Ovechkin. He’s not the leader Sid or Bergeron is, but the whole Caps org builds around his presence. When he retires, the exitement will be gone.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Bijan Todd@bijan_toddOct 26
Want to know a huge reason why the Wizards look good thus far? Their bench. Here's how they rank among all bench units: FG%: 1st (52.9) AST-to-TO: 2nd (1.96) 3PT%: 6th (37.8) Plus-minus: 7th (+3.8) Scoring: 9th (40.7ppg) This unit was DEAD LAST in +/- last year (-4.8).
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
SNY Mets
@SNY_Mets10h
40 years ago today, the Mets won the 1986 World Series.
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Lose-lose game for the Commanders this week. If they win it is discounted because 2-5 PHI lost five straight If they lose they are 1-5-1 and we're still talking about firing Quinn
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Cooper Kupp's 2021 season with the 12-5 Rams is widely considered one of the greatest individual wide receiver seasons in NFL history and he got 2% of the MVP vote, finished distant third.
Gregg Rosenthal
@greggrosenthalOct 26
JSN has a strong case for MVP through 7 weeks. It will take an extraordinary set of circumstances to win MVP at wideout: -- Carry an offense with historic season -- No true elite QB season Its far less likely to happen over 17 weeks but so far he's done it
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Feeling down? @JunksRadio segment right now will pick you up!
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
ESPN Insights
@ESPNInsightsOct 25
On this date in 1986, Bill Buckner recorded one of the most infamous errors in MLB history. 🫣 The Mets would go on to defeat Boston in Game 7 to win the World Series and the curse of the Bambino continued until 2004 for the Red Sox.
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The Capitals have done a wonderful job preparing for the post-Ovechkin era.
Capitals PR
@CapitalsPROct 25
Per @NHLPR, Tuch (10 GP) is the fastest Capitals player to record their first three multi-goal games with the franchise, besting Alex Ovechkin (11 GP in 2005-06).
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Kris Rhim
@krisrhim1Oct 25
Jaylen Brown on Jayson Tatum: “It’s no beef, but it might be little lamb chops and some gravy, you know what I mean? “He should stay ready at all times.”
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Mike Beuoy@inpredictOct 24
I wouldn't necessarily call it variance, but this tracks to the data I've pulled. A team that is up 20 at the half underperforms by about 5 points in the 2nd half.
Bobby Krivitsky
@BobbyKrivitskyOct 23
Joe Mazzulla says the Celtics analytics staff studied situations where teams led by at least 20 over the last decade. He says that when you’re up by 20 in today’s game, not only is growing that to 30 not a realistic expectation, but due to variance, you’re really up by 15. It will most likely shrink to 6 or 7. It comes down to how you then handle that situation.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Tej Seth
@tejfbanalyticsOct 24
Stats & Scheme topic this week: Blitzing is Back: - Defenses are blitzing more previous seasons - Blitzing is the most effective it’s been in 5 seasons - More defenses are playing two high + zone behind their blitzes - Blitzes on 3rd & 7+ have been *very effective* this season - DB + LB blitzes have been lethal for opposing offenses
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Bobby Krivitsky
@BobbyKrivitskyOct 23
Joe Mazzulla says the Celtics analytics staff studied situations where teams led by at least 20 over the last decade. He says that when you’re up by 20 in today’s game, not only is growing that to 30 not a realistic expectation, but due to variance, you’re really up by 15. It will most likely shrink to 6 or 7. It comes down to how you then handle that situation.
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Connor McDavid is not human. He is a hockey AI cyborg whose programming was updated this offseason.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Mike Petriello@mike_petrielloOct 23
In what is likely to be the very first all-indoor World Series, and at two parks that have had some notable roof controversies, I am very glad to see @AdamMcCalvy & @adamdberry teamed up to explain the most important x-factor of the 2026 World Series: mlb.com/news/ground-rules-fo…

Meet the true X-factors in this World Series: The roofs

MILWAUKEE – Look up during the World Series and you’ll see the roofs at American Family Field and Tropicana Field. There’s a chance this could be the first World Series played entirely indoors. And...

mlb.com
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Mike Petriello@mike_petrielloOct 23
The World Series starts today. The AL's best team vs the NL's best team. Two fanbases that have never won before. The style of play everyone claims they are desperate to see. This is going to rock.
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Sid 🇨🇦@NHL_SidOct 23
The Oilers have scored 46 goals this season. Connor McDavid has been on-ice for 37 (80%) of them. Just insane.
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He explained the timing of bringing in Steve Wilks to help with defensive game planning. You’ll have to listen to hear what he said about getting similar help for the offense. (That’s a tease)
Steak/Sauna/Parlay/Draft King
@EBJunkiesOct 23
Adam Peters up next!!! #Commanders
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
Kevin Cole
@kevin_coleOct 22
I love this visual for how coaches think about uncertainty
Brian Burke@bburkeESPNOct 22
With all the talk about Kyle Shanahan's 51% comment, I want to take some time to walk through why a lot of the discussion yesterday was off the mark. I'm going to focus on just one of the points made--uncertainty. Thread:
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Neil Greenberg retweeted
MLB
@MLBOct 22
Jacob Misiorowski was asked what Pokémon energy he was bringing to #WorldSeries Game 1: "Definitely the flame energy. What's Charizard's signature move? Fireball. Bring some fireball. I'm going to be ready."
On the left side on the graphic, blue text reads “Milwaukee Brewers” in blue font against a beige background. The rest of the graphic has a dark blue background. A large heading reads “Miz” with a subheading, “Gotta strike ‘em all out!” There is a large cutout of Jacob Misiorowski pumping his fist and yelling in excitement. He wears a cream-colored Brewers uniform and blue cap.

ALT On the left side on the graphic, blue text reads “Milwaukee Brewers” in blue font against a beige background. The rest of the graphic has a dark blue background. A large heading reads “Miz” with a subheading, “Gotta strike ‘em all out!” There is a large cutout of Jacob Misiorowski pumping his fist and yelling in excitement. He wears a cream-colored Brewers uniform and blue cap.

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