Interested in Financial Markets, Macro, Politics and Economics. Want to revive the hobby of drawing cartoons. *Views are mine alone, don’t reflect my employers*

Singapore / Mumbai
Joined November 2010
My predictions for coming decade (in a thread of thread format) ...
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Now will they build more. Or only talk about a carbon free future.
European Commission sounds the alarm (now !!!) about the number of oil refineries closing in the region over the last 20 years. "We need to counter this trend," says EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen. "This crisis is a wake-up call." Quite.
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
Andy Mukherjee is wrong about PLI in a weird way. He took an iPhone apart in a Hong Kong market, held up the parts India imports: display, camera, battery, boards. And called the whole scheme a costly dead end. What he refuses to see: -Those exact parts are going to made in India soon. -What he is dismissive of - assembly - is what component manufacture possible. -Because a parts maker needs a customer. -Nobody builds a display or battery plant in a country with no phone assembly lines.. -PLI built those lines. Look at this graphic below - all the highlighted parts are already approved for manufacturing in India (how? see next tweet)
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
"We all made a mistake. All of us should have been a little more thoughtful about China going back about 10 years. They joined the WTO in 2001, but they started abusing it by 2012. We should have been more thoughtful about what they were really thinking and doing. We were just kind of happy-go-lucky. All of us, including the government."
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon admits America made a major mistake by underestimating China for years, but says the U.S. still holds the stronger hand: “The best way to avoid a war is to be strong.” 🇺🇸🇨🇳 “We all made a mistake. All of us should have been a little more thoughtful about China going back about 10 years. They joined the WTO in 2001, but they started abusing it by 2012. We should have been more thoughtful about what they were really thinking and doing. We were just kind of happy-go-lucky. All of us, including the government. But now is the time to say they can’t do certain things they’re doing. We have the better hand. I’m not telling Americans not to worry about it. Let’s make sure we build a really strong economy. Let’s make sure we have unparalleled military strength that is unquestioned. Because the best way to avoid a war is to be strong. We have to fight for America, remind ourselves of what makes this country great, and educate our kids about how economic strength, military power, and national security are all connected.”
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For a change she’s right. Drill those majestic mountains and build that HSR. Mumbai - Pune route needs more connectivity.
China has a large number of High Speed Trains that cover this distance in 35 minutes. Our @IASassociation biradari and politicians go on tax paid study tours but will keep expanding this polluting- car first option that takes 5 times the travel time! We are like sheep to accept it!! We will keep paying higher tolls too. No hope!!
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
Many of these workers will find ways to stay in Japan. This will accelerate the Islamic invasion of Japan that has already begun. History will record this as a stupid move: failure to learn from Europe’s Islamization.
Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signs a 10-year labour agreement with Bangladesh. Bangladesh will send 100,000 workers to Japan every year, according to AP.
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
The beauty of vibes based criticism! Pick a random data point - value of component import is more than value of finished exports + subsidies. Completely ignore the counterfactual that India is also a big consumption market, so if there was so assembly, the entire finished product would be anyway imported. Not to mention jobs, skills, ecosystems and a fair shot at greater value addition and component localization. India is already sprinting in what would be a marathon. Even if it is a marker of criticism-trough, it should have been more coherent.
One in four iPhones is made in India, but imported parts and costly subsidies complicate the success story. @andymukherjee70 takes apart an iPhone to explain why copying China's manufacturing model may not pay off 🎥
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Not just Kylian Mbappe, who has already apologized rather profusely to China for his one stray comment on Mao Zedong. Here's La Liga (Mbappe is a Real Madrid star) offering unconditional and unreserved apology to China for Mbappe's comment. What we are watching before our eyes, in real time, is how great powers impose costs on others so that their red lines are never crossed.
西班牙职业足球联盟(LALIGA)对基利安·姆巴佩所发表的言论在中国引发的不满与冒犯深表遗憾。我们理解这些言论所造成的伤害。我谨代表LALIGA向中国人民致以诚挚的歉意。 多年来,我们与中国及其政府部门、体育机构、视听媒体机构,以及数以百万计喜爱西班牙足球的球迷,建立了相互尊重、信任与合作的关系。 我们不能允许个人行为损害这一关系,也不能让我们职业赛事中的20多家俱乐部以及数以百万计的中国球迷因此受到不利影响。 我们正在采取力所能及的措施,并与我们在中国的合作伙伴及相关方直接对接,以化解当前局面。 我们对中国、中国人民及中国有关机构的承诺坚定不移。 多年来建立的这一关系,不能因个别事件而受到损害。
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Los historiadores estiman que entre 1958 y 1962, Mao causó entre 15 y 55 millones de muertes, sobre todo por hambruna. Las cifras más citadas rondan los 30-45 millones. A esto se suman cientos de miles o millones más por la Revolución Cultural y otras campañas. scmp.com/article/723956… rfa.org/english/commen…
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Govt has drawn up a list of about 120 products it wants made in India, aimed mainly at reducing reliance on China. The list includes acetic acid, pharma inputs, medtech, machine tools, textile looms, cranes, construction equipment, aerospace MRO parts and even pieces of the footwear chain. Tunnel boring machines get a separate plan after Beijing restricted their shipments. DPIIT is weighing three kinds of support including short-term protection from Chinese competition, incentives to offset the cost gap, and R&D help where India simply doesn’t have the technology. via @timesofindia
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
One day, a journalist from Doordarshan will write: "I spent a week in DC, watching an extraordinary protest movement. Here's what I saw, and what I think it means for US, and the world."
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
To Bloomberg, with love from India. I plotted India's trade in finished phones. In 2014, we imported $7.43B and exported $0.56B. In 2025, imports were down to $0.66B while exports reached $30.15B. Finished-phone imports fell about 91%. We now make phones here for Indian buyers and sell them overseas. That is a substantial change in where the manufacturing happens. Bloomberg says taxpayers are "probably" paying over $1 in subsidies for every additional dollar going to workers. Where is the calculation? And even if that ratio holds, why should additional wages be the whole test of what India gained? Source: UN Comtrade, India-reported trade, calendar years. HS 851712 through 2021; HS 851713 + 851714 thereafter. 2025 preview data may be revised. Graph compiled by me.
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
A typical case of “kicking away the ladder.” It seems even more brutal when India is already climbing the mobile phone value chain. Many who doubted India's PLI scheme for mobile phones (LSEM) seem reluctant to acknowledge the recent progress. Let me explain. (1/n)
One in four iPhones is made in India, but imported parts and costly subsidies complicate the success story. @andymukherjee70 takes apart an iPhone to explain why copying China's manufacturing model may not pay off 🎥
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
1/16 the ai industry is making an unusual bet: buy compute for years, sell intelligence by the token. banks, commodity merchants, airlines, utilities and cloud providers each explain a different part of the risk.
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
crazy how much of India's chess culture can be traced back to one man
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
Mobile PLI stats as follows: Government incentive paid: Rs 19,000 Cr. Direct tax collected: Rs 25,000 Cr. GST collected: Rs 3,00,000 Cr. Electronics manufacturing employs 25 Lakh people; mobile manufacturing alone employs 12 Lakh. Cope harder!!
One in four iPhones is made in India, but imported parts and costly subsidies complicate the success story. @andymukherjee70 takes apart an iPhone to explain why copying China's manufacturing model may not pay off 🎥
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צריך להדגיש נקודה משמעותית במיוחד: במצב הפוליטי שנוצר, לנתניהו אין ממשלה. בהיעדר אפשרות להקים קואליציה, התמריץ שלו להשתמש שוב בקלף האיראני עשוי לגדול באופן דרמטי. מבחינתו, הסלמה מול איראן עשויה להיות הדרך היחידה לשנות את המשוואה הפוליטית, ליצור מצב חירום לאומי ולכפות על יריביו הקמת ממשלת אחדות בראשותו. לכן, החשש אינו רק שנתניהו ינסה לנצל מלחמה לצרכיו הפוליטיים, אלא שהמבוי הסתום הפוליטי עצמו עלול להפוך לתמריץ משמעותי ליזום הסלמה מול איראן. זו אפשרות שחייבים להביא בחשבון בניתוח הסיכון למערכה נוספת.
להבנתי, אלה האפשרויות כרגע נוכח לתוצאות למדגמים, לא לפי הסדר: - ממשלת מיעוט של איזנקוט עם רע"מ - אחדות עם איזנקוט-נתניהו - בחירות נוספות
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
Since cricket vs baseball is the (stupid) fight of the day, here is an old thread on the difference between baseball and cricket (both fantastic sports)
People say baseball and cricket are similar - bat/ball/runs/outs, etc. But there is one fundamental difference: in baseball, the pitcher is always under pressure whereas in cricket it is always the batsman [thread]
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Replying to @India_Progress
True. But unlike say India, Brazil is so well endowed with resources. Huge and growing oil reserves (not even fully exploited). Amazon. Hydropower for over half its electricity. Farmland that makes it the world’s largest food exporter. Massive rare-earth deposits. It can feed, fuel and power itself, which are such levers of strategic independence we can only dream of.
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
Some of you have asked me many times to suggest books to read. I never recommended any seriously. But given the "war" India is going to face for the next few years, I would recommend reading at least one of the following: (1) War Without Rules (Robert Spalding, 2022) - Easiest and Shortest. (2) Unrestricted Warfare (The Original, 1999) - Good overview by China's own defense guys. (3) The Long Game (Rush Doshi, 2021) - Technical and for those really interested in Geopolitics. All three books detail China's unrestricted warfare methods. They all explain it by illustrating China's war on America mostly. But you can always imagine America as India and read the books. The methods are the same. And they are being actively applied now. If you are interested, here's an overview of some methods: Political warfare - Influence and infiltrate politics of democracies like India to weaken the country from inside. Psychological warfare: Spreading rumors, disinformation, and amplifying issues to erode the will, cohesion, and morale of the Indian government, military, and importantly general public. Drug warfare: Facilitating or profiting from the spread of illicit drugs into India to destabilize society, strain security resources, and weaken the social fabric. Cultural warfare: Promoting or amplifying cultural trends and narratives aimed at influencing Indian viewpoints in alignment with the adversary's interests. Appropriating culture while eroding the nation of its own heritage. Media warfare, Law warfare, Network warfare, Technological warfare, Fabrication warfare, Resources warfare... there are many more methods. Buy and read at least one of these books, you will know. Book (2) is legally available free on the internet to download.
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Nirav Kanodra retweeted
Brazil had its moment in the sun. In its growth heyday in the 70s it really appeared that it was destined for an East Asian type miracle. And then it stagnated. Growth is not automatic. Prosperity is not a guarantee.
Whichever way you dice it becoming a Brazil will be a tremendous achievement for India.
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To all those who think 'solar energy' or any other 'sustainable' energy is the solution to our problems, please take out 1.40 hours of your precious life and watch this documentary. It was made six years ago. 'Emotional' thinking doesn't solve the issues. youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7…
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