Village idiot. Risk premia + trades with answers to "why me, why now". Tweets/opinions are someone else's financial advice.
Norway
Joined April 2011
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Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Buffett: A CEO calls and says he has a great deal for you and all you wanted was a 6% discount to last trade?
Abel: It was a chance to invest in a company you said we missed
Munger: The miss was in 2003
Abel: The bankers all said we got it cheap to where would could buy it
Buffett: Wait, your tipping point was banker praise?
Abel: They congratulated me on the deal
Munger: Did you get a deal toy?
Buffett: What else are we doing because “the bankers” said so
Abel: I think you are both over reacting. Its one trade
Buffett: You just pissed away 20% of our profits from Japanese trading houses
Munger: Maybe he doesn’t like sushi
Abel: David Sokol said he loved our trade and owns in his PA
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Im trying to understand why Brazils largest laser hair removal company is down 30% today
Has the Brazilian bikini wax gone out of style?
Has the hair stopped growing?
Is Lula bringing back the bush?
These are the important questions Brazilian investors should be asking today
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
I just don’t think anyone realizes how important school conditions in France are to college age adults in Barcelona
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Uber CEO: How can we increase our revenues?
McKinsey consultant: Imagine Uber but no car
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
🟡 *Sobre o EWZ:*
*Os clientes institucionais da Citadel negociaram hoje ~600 mil opções de EWZ, cerca de 1/4 de todo o mercado listado:*
* São mais de 5 calls para cada put. No prêmio, a proporção chega a 10 para 1
* O EWZ foi o papel nº 1 da mesa deles em 11 dos 15 pregões desde o 1º turno
* O volume no complexo Brasil (EWZ, XP, PBR, NU) está 8x acima do ritmo pré-campanha
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
BREAKING: Flávio Bolsonaro surges in Brazil’s presidential election odds, with less than 24 hours until voters head to the polls.
82% chance.
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Prediction markets added to Bolsonaro's victory odds during and after the debate. Went from 76% to 80%.
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
📊 Bolsonaro x Lula: 2026 vs. 2022, a 2 dias do 2º turno
🎲 Polymarket
2026: Flávio 75,5% x 24,5% Lula
2022: Lula 73% x 28% Jair
📈 PollingData (chance de vitória)
2026: Flávio 63% x 37% Lula
2022: Lula 65% x 35% Jair
🗳️ Pesquisas (votos válidos)
2026:
⚪ Datafolha (22/out): 50% x 50%
🔵 Quaest (21/out): Flávio 50,6% x 49,4% Lula
🔵 AtlasIntel (19/out): Flávio 51,1% x 48,9% Lula
2022:
🔴 Datafolha: Lula 53% x 47% Jair
🔴 Quaest: Lula 53% x 47% Jair
🔴 AtlasIntel: Lula 53% x 47% Jair
📉 Média dos institutos
2026: Flávio 50,9% x 49,1% (13 de 16 com Flávio na frente)
2022: Lula 51,8% x 48,2% (9 de 11 com Lula na frente)
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Den 2 november 2015 fick Intrums vd Lars Wollung sparken. Orsaken var att han motsatte sig strategin som huvudägare och styrelseordförande ville driva igenom och sedan drev igenom. Strategin var att köpa Lindorff. Under hans tid gick aktien 3-4x. -99,5% sedan han fick sparken.
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
When I was writing Unreal Engine 1, my time was divided as follows:
- Around 30% went to seriously deep coding on hard problems: assembly language texture mappers, C++ BSP trees, data persistence, object oriented systems design, and networking.
- Around 70% was just typing and refactoring large bodies of code needed for a complete engine feature set. This was not hard, and while I was doing it my mind was mostly on the deeper coding topics, thinking and planning for what's next. It didn't feel much different from vibe coding today, except that it was just me typing code on an IBM Model M keyboard rather than prompting it and reviewing the results.
So, it has always seemed perfectly logical that we would rely on AI for that 70%, once the AI could do it with a similar quality standard as we could, which has never been perfection. It came as no surprise that, after a few years of AI model evolution, it was able to take the reigns on that 70% and free up programmers' time for more valuable tasks.
What's more of a surprise is the emergence of AI as a sort of insta-Carmack able to solve hard technical problems quite cleverly and often cleanly, and that it's able to reason about and work in complex 3D scenes both by operating the tools and by directly understanding the raw data files.
I abandoned assembly language in 1998 when out-of-order CPUs made much simpler C/C++ code faster, and never I missed it. If prompting through architectural documents, concept art, and design plans can transcend typing code and tweaking vertices, that will enable developers to spend their time on higher-level, higher value technical and creative tasks.
What matters is the end product, whether it's a game or an engine. Anything developers can do to try out more ideas and make better software and games faster is a win for everyone.
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
I want to be clear: the rioters have no legitimate demands. French social spending is too high, not too low. This is mostly ethnic warfare and just plain low-IQ low impulse control violence from third-world savages incompatible with Western civilization.
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Codex has reached senior engineer level.
Ask it to do something and it regularly replies with "I’m at capacity, try someone else."
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Victimblaming av Charlie Hebdo, utlevering av navn på Uigurske dissidenter til Kina, boikott av Liu Xiaobo, «both sides» i Ukraina.
Selv Israel-hatere bør innse at Navi Pilay er en lort.
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
changing from .ai to .si under trump is like putting your pronouns into your bio under biden
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants
I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument
But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists
I predict the trend accelerates
Letter from @AQRCapital below
Anon Risk Addict retweeted
JPMorgan just called Brazil the "anti-AI market" and told clients to own more Brazilian stocks than the index holds.
In plain words, the bank sees Brazilian stocks as protection for a portfolio if AI stocks fall.
I wrote in June that Brazil wins in both cases, and the reason is 150 years old.
Every tech craze follows the same path: a real invention shows up, the stock price runs far ahead of what the invention can earn, and the price breaks while the invention keeps working.
In 1873, railroad debt sank Jay Cooke's bank and shut the New York Stock Exchange for ten days, and the tracks still carried the next forty years of American trade.
RCA, the hot radio stock of the 1920s, fell 98% from 1929 to 1932, while the share of American homes with a radio more than doubled, from about 40% in 1930 to about 83% in 1940.
The Nasdaq fell 78% after March 2000, and the fiber cable laid during the bubble became the floor the internet was built on.
Each time, the money that lasted ended up with whoever owned the power, the metal, the land and the food the machine needed.
AI is the most physical machine ever built.
Data centers used about 1.5% of the world's electricity in 2024, and the International Energy Agency expects that to more than double by 2030, to roughly what all of Japan uses today.
Brazil makes about 85% of its electric capacity from renewable sources and holds the second-largest known reserves of both graphite and rare earths on Earth.
So while AI keeps building, Brazil supplies the power and the minerals it runs on, and if the AI stock story breaks, JPMorgan already counts Brazil as the hedge.
JPMorgan's own report also says Brazilian profits are still under pressure, so the gain it sees comes from investors paying a higher price for the same profits, up from 8.9 times expected earnings today.
The bank calls Brazil a hedge against AI, and 150 years of manias say Brazil is also the ground AI stands on.
Read my full article from June on "When the AI Bubble Bursts: The Case for Brazilian Hard Assets"...
nitter.gq/drewcrawford_/status/2…
O JP Morgan acabou de chamar o Brasil de "mercado anti-IA" num relatório oficial.🤯
Na visão deles o Brasil seria uma espécie de hedge dentro de emergentes.
Ou seja, o Brasil é pra onde o dinheiro corre se a aposta em inteligência artificial azedar.
Eles subiram a recomendação de neutro para compra, projetando 12% de alta no curto prazo e até 20%.
Mas repare na lógica por trás que está no relatório.
O próprio banco escreve que o lucro das empresas ainda vai sofrer, que o crescimento segue desacelerando e que a inflação deve passar por uma fase de pressão maior.
Então eles projetam a bolsa subindo enquanto o lucro cai.
A alta inteira vem de reprecificação de múltiplo.
O Brasil negocia a 8,9 vezes lucro projetado e a tese é ir pra 10,9, chegando a 13,2 se vier reforma estrutural.
Nos cenários ruins do próprio relatório, deterioração dá -7% e crise dá -21%.
E isso casa com o que eu publiquei aqui recentemente sobre busca global por IA nas máximas. A bolsa americana sem as ações de IA já devolveu o rali inteiro do verão.
Agora tem banco grande escrevendo em relatório oficial que ativo descorrelacionado de IA virou categoria de alocação.
Mas será que no caso de uma rotação esse dinheiro vai parar apenas em emergentes? Eu já tenho minhas apostas.
