Market & Portfolio Strategist | Macro, Market Structure & Digital Assets - Founder of 62ndAlpha - Sign up https://xitter.cf/t.co/Wl4EgCdEzg
Joined November 2021
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Not much has changed in two weeks. I expect not much to change for a few months. So far holding the fractal well.
But when it resolves, I expect the entire market to rip so fast you won’t know what hit you. Be ready.
Total crypto market cap excluding stables.
The 2-week TOTAL crypto market cap chart excluding stablecoins is sitting at a MASSIVE decision point. 👀🔥
This is the kind of chart I watch to understand the bigger picture across crypto.
Excluding stablecoins removes changes in dollar-pegged token supply from the total, giving us a clearer view of how the market is valuing crypto’s risk assets. 📊
And on the 2-week timeframe, every candle represents 14 days. These levels reflect YEARS of market structure.
Look at the confluence:
🔸 A rising macro trendline extending from the 2018 bear-market lows.
🔸 The 0.618 Fibonacci level around 1.98T.
🔸 The former 2021 cycle-high zone around the current $2.52T area.
🔸 The orange moving average converging near that overhead resistance.
We’ve bounced from the lower support cluster and are now testing whether the market can reclaim that historical ceiling.
That’s a BIG deal.
A decisive 2-week close above this zone, followed by a successful retest, would strengthen the case for another major expansion. Rejection keeps this a resistance test; losing the ~$1.98T support and rising trendline would weaken the bullish structure.
The longer-term upside reference on this chart? The 1.618 extension near 12.7T. 🚀
That’s a conditional macro target, not a promise or a timeline. The turquoise path illustrates a possible scenario, not future price data.
For now, the question is simple: can crypto turn this former cycle ceiling into a durable floor?
Because that’s where the next major leg could start. 🕯️🔥
This has to reconcile to the upside in the next few days or likely revisit mid 70s.
If we do I expect 74-76 to hold. Altcoins have corrected 20-50%. Im a buyer on the correction.
$BTC
We called the bottom. Told you to buy when you couldn’t bring yourself to do it.
Now I’m telling you $ETH is going to breakout this cycle and 5x its previous ATH.
Whether we care or not, believe it or not, invested in it or not - eth will be the blue chip adoption mechanism for institutions.
That chart tells the other side of the story.
COMPRESSION.
Which has now been over 2000 days…
Charts resolve themselves, one way or the other.
Which way ANON?
Got the sweep of lows. Trend is strong.
Narrative is $ETH is dead.
We are in the bottoming out phase. That is certain. Will we see 1200-1400 before new highs?
Maybe.
Macro investors are aggressively buying.
So far it’s playing out exactly how we thought it would.
$AERO just faced a sharp rejection near $1, but the weekly bullish structure remains intact. 🐂 📈
The question now is whether buyers defend the pullback ❓🤨🙋🏽♂️
📍 $0.52–$0.57: Key weekly support
🐂 Hold support: Look for a higher low and bullish reversal
🔊 Reclaim $1: Breakout confirmation on a weekly close, ideally with strong volume
🎯 ⬆️ Upside: $1.50–$2+
❌ Weekly close below $0.52: Bullish thesis invalidated… 🐻
I’m watching for confirmation rather than chasing the bounce.
Healthy correction before the next leg higher, or the beginning of a deeper breakdown?
$HYPE weekly structure looks incredibly bullish. 🚀
I am slowly getting back in here.
Price is retesting a major breakout zone while maintaining its broader ascending structure.
🕯️ $65: Key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and horizontal support.
🕯️ $70–$75: Weekly bull market support band providing dynamic support.
🕯️ Higher lows: Long-term ascending trendline remains intact.
🕯️ $90–$100: Major resistance and the next breakout target.
The confluence here is hard to ignore. A successful retest followed by a weekly reclaim of $90–$100 could open the door for price discovery toward $150–$200.
As long as $65 holds, the macro bullish thesis remains compelling.
$HYPE looks like it’s building the foundation for its next major expansion. 👀
Most people will disagree with me. That’s okay. But I have maintained for over two years that bitcoin dominance will make a new local high before we ever see an altseason.
Why?
Because - bitcoin has to prove to participants it can get back into extreme overvaluation, which it has not since 2020/21.
It’s a game of psychology.
People acting like price shouldn’t go down.
I’m bullish below 80k.
Stack some alts.
$BTC
$SUI
Corrective phase almost complete and target reached.
BMSB squeezing the 20w after an anticipated rejection from major diagonal.
Discount zone.
Total crypto market cap (M)
We got the reversal at macro .618, with a monthly engulfing morning star.
The hardest, most boring part of every reversal is waiting for the charts to confirm it with its next impulsive move.
Buyers and sellers tend to be evenly matched at these important level.
Once confirmed - the losing side capitulates initial bias.
A good time to sell rips and buy dips in the altcoin space.
$AVAX currently retesting the BMSB and coming out of a bear market accumulation phase.
Weekly RSI broken. If the charts gains acceptance above these key levels, the move to $40 will be smooth.
BUY accruement layers.
$AVAX steady in accumulation.
Next time we break the BMSB we pump hard. Avalanche will rise from the dead.☠️
I’m live streaming the Friday mentorship program today.
Going to cover trade setups.
Entries.
Exits.
Risk management.
People pay a lot of money for this group every Friday - come see what the fuss is all about.
Starts in 30 min.
1pm mountain standard time.
Link - youtube.com/@62ndalpha?si=t8…
We aggressively accumulated the lows on $INJ.
Here I circled this post from 4/11/26 for you.
HIGHER.
Price is above 50wSMA.
Price above HTF support.
Metrics have bottomed.
Supertrend flipped green.
Just keep it simple.
$BTC
