IIM Bangalore Alumni,psephologist , Election Result Analyst. Visit: https://nitter.gq/t.co/E1ZVd6U2Ml for all election related data.
Gurgaon, India
Joined May 2014
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Just mentioning two hypothetical scensrios for Uttarakhand and UttarPradesh upcoming assembly elections.
If SP+Congress can add ASP(ChandraSekhar) in alliance for UP, then NDA will be less than 125 seats.
If Congress+UKD fights together in Uttarakhand, the BJP will be less than 12 seats.
After roaming in 10 Assembly segments of Uttar Pradesh in Bijnor, Meerut and Hapur for last 3 days, i can sense that NDA is going to be restricted below 20 LS seats from Uttar Pradesh if Parliament Election is held today.
PM Modi and BJP brand, lost the charm a lot especially among youths, farmers and lower income group.
In the assembly Election, Law and Order improvement and CM Yogi's image is holding the ground for BJP.
In last 3 days i roamed the following assembly segments of Western UP with my understanding who is ahead :
1. Khatauli - BJP
2. Nehtaur (SC) - SP
3. Bijnor - Can't judge
4. Dhanaura (SC) - SP
5. Hasanpur - Candidate centric
6. Siwal Khas - Candidate centric
7. Sardhana - SP
8. Hastinapur (SC) - SP
9. Garhmukteshwar - BJP
My observation - Sugarcane is truning bitter for BJP.
I saw some are supporting Agniveer scheme because of financial issues.
During Bihar Election 2025, Govt (BJP) distributed 10,000 INR to more than 1.6 crs females just to win election.
I am sure that some money will be officially distributed to the voters of poll bound states.
Where is the money coming from ?
Imagine the impact on election could have been on Uttarakhand, Western UP and Punjab.
Rahul Gandhi called for a rally "Scrap Agniveer" on 1st November,2026.
And Central government gives extention of 2 years for the 1st batch of Agniveers on 4th November.
BJP is giving lots of full toss. Congress is missing them.
Roamed in the hills of Uttarakhand and this is what i found the people's opinion regarding #Agniveer scheme.
It is neither good for the armed forces nor for the aspiring youths who want to join Indian Army. Watch this :
youtube.com/watch?v=xiRb9Xo1…
The government has granted a two-year extension to the Agniveers. Cabinet's decision taken.
So there will be 3 types of rank with in Armed forces :
1. Permanent
2. Agniveers (25% of them will be retained after they completes 4 years of service)
3. Extended Agniveers (After 2 years they have to leave armed forces)
In any emergency situation, it will be complete chaos.
NO ONE WEAKENED OUR ARMED FORCES like this government.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Unless AY gives assurance that Law and Order will not be a problem, it will be a close election.
If he can assure people that law and order will maintain, he can win 300 plus seats .
Roamed the following assembly segments between 27th Oct to 30th Oct,2026
1. Narendranagar
2. Deoprayag
3. Srinagar
4. Rudraprayag
5. Tehri
The youths in the hills turned anti-BJP. Around 65-75% of them will vote anti BJP. But this anti incumbency vote will get divided between Congress and UKD.
Partha Das retweeted
Karnataka SIR : Minister @ArshadRizwan says, "As soon as the SIR exercise started, and even before that across the country, Union Home Minister @AmitShah had claimed that there are infiltrators in the voter list, He was hinting at Bangladeshis in the voter list, and he said infiltrators are influencing Indian elections... @hd_kumaraswamy very clearly said that Bangladeshis are being supported before we started this exercise. I want to ask them because the EC has very clearly said that only less than 1,000 foreign nationals were identified... 771 foreign nationals were identified in this voter list. Out of these, 588 are Nepalese. The remaining 183 are Kannadigas who have taken US citizenship, European nation citizenship, and other citizenships. According to my information, not even three Bangladeshis were identified. You made 5 crore Kannadigas stand in the queue to identify three infiltrators or three Bangladeshis. This is just like how you made 100 crore Indians stand in queue during demonetisation and the note ban to identify black money. The EC has to come out clean and say how many infiltrators were identified, how many, particularly Bangladeshis or foreign nationals, were identified. This exercise was to put people through strain and tension, harass them, and make them stand in queues..."
Interacted with youths from hills in Uttarakhand in last two days.
The youths from HILL area are very much against the BJP.
They want to remove BJP from the power.
Many of them wants an alliance of Congress and UKD in next assembly election.
