Coming soon: "IDon'tKnow" 🎙️, a weekly show deflating hype and delivering evidence. A weekly show by the erstwhile Watanabe Crew.
Bangalore
Joined September 2011
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#metoo for that 1 lot that got allocated #1lotchintu
#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra: Ambani family visits the Shree Siddhivinayak Temple and offer prayers after stock market debut of Jio Platforms Ltd on the National Stock Exchange of India.
(Source: Siddhivinayak Temple)
As a disciple of Sir Chris Hohn, if I take an active position, I won't hesitate to go to court a.l.a ft.com/content/7e70ca02-6d12… , So u 2 chillax
1455 versus 1417 leaves a 38-point error; that's 2.6% in percentage terms, or -3.65 in natural log space (though we can't eat log returns).
Still, the interns get to eat biryani today, as 1,417 minus 1,358 leaves a 59-point gain, which, even after A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, Q, R, S, T, U, V, W, X, Y, and Z taxes that @FinMinIndia levies, comes out to about 4.3% gross
Jio IPO listing-day closing price forecast -> manualofmomentum.substack.co… #JioIPO #jioipoallotment
the round is never a ??
Let’s get serious for the next 70 minutes and ignite the momentum by crossing offers from those Gurgaon HFT algorithms. Now that the morning opening range has broken out, let’s drive #JPL to 1450
Let’s get serious for the next 70 minutes and ignite the momentum by crossing offers from those Gurgaon HFT algorithms. Now that the morning opening range has broken out, let’s drive #JPL to 1450
Tell me you don't know Indian corporate history without telling me. Mukesh Ambani launched Reliance Infocomm (the famous â‚ą500 Monsoon Hungama). RCom was handed to A-Nil in the 2005 split
Years ago, Anil Ambani had a telecom company too. He had the same dream, the same name and the same start.
Reliance Communications now trades below Rs. 1 and is worth about Rs. 236 crore
Remember the movie 1975 blockbuster Deewar, Vijay and Ravi were two brothers.
Vijay grew up angry and started working for smugglers. Ravi studied hard and became a police officer.
By the middle of the film, Vijay had money, a big house and a name in the city. Ravi had a uniform and a small salary.
In the end, Ravi was the one sent to stop his own brother. Vijay died in their mother's arms.
Mukesh Ambani is listing Jio Platforms today, in India's biggest IPO at valuation of around Rs. 12 Lakh Crore ($131.52 Billion) but I couldn't find Anil Ambanis name in any Jio IPO coverage.
In Deewar, the film ends with one brother gone. Here, one brother is on the stage and the other is only a memory of what could have been.
1. AT&T and Verizon trade at 7–9x P/E because they are mature, low-margin utilities loaded with legacy debt (Time Warner M&A) and flat growth.
JPL isn't just a carrier; it’s an asset-light, high-EBITDA margin (~50%+) digital platform. Markets assign structural tech premiums to platforms due to operating leverage, expanding ROIC, and multi-stream monetization (enterprise cloud, AirFiber, digital ads).
2. ARPU vs. Total Wallet Share
Comparing US nominal ARPU directly to Indian ARPU misses the PPP runway. The real valuation driver isn't just mobility ARPU moving from â‚ą220 to â‚ą350+
Broadband, AirFiber, and enterprise cross-sells generate 3x mobility ARPU. You don't need US level nominal GDP to justify the valuation;
Jio listing: Quick thoughts -
World’s most valued telecom company belongs to India.?
At $130 BN, Jio is almost hitting AT&T market cap of $155 BN & Verizon mkt cap of $177 BN. In other words, imagine if Indian economy becomes EQUAL to American economy “tomorrow”. That’s the valuations at which we’re buying Airtel & Jio today. Imagine how far is that.
At 14% CAGR growth, Jio will take 20 years to catch up to AT&T revenue. Thats why international investors find valuations in India beyond sanity.
On ARPU - Indian ARPU is at of below Rs 220 for last 20 years. It was the same in 2006. How can you count on future growth?
Go ahead and enjoy the party. But if investors think they can make money on this in next 10 years- I don’t think so. If you overpay, you carry all the risk. My discussion on Business Today @business_today
Back in 2002–03, while I was at @HPE , I was part of the presales team that pitched an end-to-end software, hardware, and system integration solution to Mr. Mukesh Ambani. We ultimately lost the deal valued at USD 100–150 million to Clarity, a little-known Australian firm at the time.
At the time, Mrs. Ann Livermore underestimated the importance of India’s scale: she sent Sebastiano and Patty to lead the front end of the deal instead of involving Carly directly.
Jio Platforms lists with a 20% pop to become India's second most valuable company...after parent Reliance Industries.
In today's special India Edition I write about how Jio’s rise was shaped by a billionaire family feud, an American tech titan and a bureaucrat.
Gift link
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Or watch video for the short version.
That is exactly why the Q&A session was designed at #IDontKnow show -> manualofmomentum.substack.co…
I don’t think they are blue sapphires sold at @Meesho_Official but are real diamonds that glow blue under UV light.
As a JPL shareholder, I’m deeply disappointed that Shri Mukesh Ambani didn’t address shareholders at the listing ceremony. A moment this historic deserved to hear directly from the man behind the vision. Shareholders are stakeholders in this journey, not just spectators. #HTH
Max supply for today is 19 Cr 75 Lakhs. Once this block is absorbed, look for a breakout rally toward 1450.
Mukesh Ambani’s tears of joy. When Indian ambition meets national pride, even billionaires get emotional. The dream is bigger than one man; it’s about India’s rise.
Bharat Mata Ki Jai! 🇮🇳
1450 towards the close is my bet. 🎯