Crypto class of โ17 | Buy the fear ๐ฉธ Sell the greed ๐ค | Believer of Astro TA ๐ฎ | Not affiliated to any project. My Tweets are not financial advise
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Joined January 2018
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Patrick058 ๐ณ๐ฑ retweeted
One year later, and so far, so good.
โ Gold vs. bitcoin
โ -80% bear vs. mini-cycle correction
If we keep following the plan, we might all make it this time.
TLDR reasoning why I don't think we'll have a -80% correction like normal, but rather a mini cycle correction.
Structure:
> We never hit our diminishing returns resistance.
> No parabolic move, smaller upside.
> We never broke back inside the previous range.
> Feels more like a bigger cycle with a mini cycle in between, rather than a completed cycle.
Gold:
> We never went parabolic while Gold was doing a parabolic move.
> We always caught up and went parabolic after Gold did one. Gold is having its super parabolic move right now and has not finished yet. Can definitely see a Gold cycle top and stop of its parabolic move trigger Bitcoin.
> Even on lower time frames Gold is still going in its local move.
> Gold macro chart + mini cycle correction + mega parabolic move after, potential correlation.
Plan TLDR:
1 - Wait for a potential stage 3 bottom to form around or just below the range high (can take out the lows of the previous consolidation). Donโt know where โ will wait and see.
2 - Wait for either a sweep and reclaim of that base lows before entering.
3 - Wait for a breakout and start of mini-cycle stage 4 (orange), in confluence with a reclaim of the lost local range lows.
4 - All plans will come with tight invalidation in case weโre wrong, and if we donโt get the trigger = no trade.
I'm not here to predict what will happen, and open to all scenarios. I'm here to execute on good entry levels as per my macro bias.
Patrick058 ๐ณ๐ฑ retweeted
Everyone wants to buy alts "when the trend is confirmedโ wellโฆ
โ ๏ธ Altcoins/Bitcoin (Monthly): First green momentum bar since 2022. Same signal fired in 2017 and 2021 and alts did x20 to x100. Two days until the close.
Patrick058 ๐ณ๐ฑ retweeted
I would be prepared for some downside here.
Both BTC and ETH are putting in lots of wicks above.
Overall, the regime has changed, but every single time we have broken back into a bull and above the 200EMA, we have come back down to retest it(or at minimum get close).
This is:
- $73,000 BTC
- $2,200 ETH
If this pullback happens, the bears will come out of their holes en masse, but it is highly likely a trap.
Everything is looking as it should.
Our bull market signal has fired, for only the fourth time ever.
Each other signal has marked the start of Bitcoins largest price runs ever.
But as we continue to range around the 1W 50EMA and below the 50SMA, volatile chop is expected.
Bitcoin tends to chop around this level for 5-8 weeks, and right now, we are at the end of week 4.
I think it is realistic to expect us to be ranging for at least the rest of September, with a high chance we get a "scary" pullback into $72k - $74k where many reclaimed levels now sit.
1D 200 SMA + EMA and HTF structure at $74,500.
In 2018, after reclaiming these levels we had no pullback, but in 2022 we had a sharp one straight into them.
In 2015 we actually lost them again, but it was a kind of blackswan liquidity event. Still, can't be ignored.
If we lost the 200D SMA that would be a red flag and would change things.
However, for now, that does not look like the case.
To me, this is bullish chop after reigniting the bull market.
Some bear traps on the way, sure, but higher we go.
Dips are for buying.
Patrick058 ๐ณ๐ฑ retweeted
Some people make money by being good at trading.
Others make money by convincing people they're good at trading.
Patrick058 ๐ณ๐ฑ retweeted
๐จ BITCOIN IS BREAKING OUT ๐จ
The bulls are back. CT is euphoric.
But before you FOMO in, thereโs one question you need to ask:
Is this the start of a massive bull run, or the perfect bull trap?
These 8 metrics tell the story ๐งต๐
Patrick058 ๐ณ๐ฑ retweeted
agree with @blknoiz06
think the market is forming stage 3 cycle bottoms, which by nature are very choppy and take time.
people will get chopped up because every 5% move up feels like weโre going 10x, and every 5% move down feels like weโre going to zero.
for all yall asking "when bull market?" here's my take:
3 to 6 months. the lows are ALREADY in. what's left is the boring sideways chop where nobody agrees on anything
this is the window. by the time everybody agrees it's a bull market, the discounts are gone
nitter.gq/blknoiz06/status/20778โฆ
Patrick058 ๐ณ๐ฑ retweeted
I love the cadence of this chart
Bitcoin % of Supply in Profit/Loss
As I said previously, you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before.
They just crossed.
Such a great chart for keeping people on the right side of the market in midterm years
