@patrickjfl

Senior Data Journalist @focaldataHQ. Also on 🦋. (he/him) 🏳️‍🌈 [email protected]

Joined April 2020
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Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
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‼️ We've reached the crossover in counted votes, and I'm confident enough to call the election. Lula will be RE-ELECTED as president of Brazil (>99% chance).
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Expecting Lula to get ~64 million votes once the count is over. His margin of victory will be around double what it was in 2022, at ~4.4 million votes. A remarkable few weeks.
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🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:23 BRT, 3.2% counted Lula 52.1% (95% CI: 48.6-55.6) Flávio Bolsonaro 47.9% (44.4-51.4) Lula wins: 88% Count so far: Lula 51.3%, Flávio 48.7% #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
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🚨 Getting very close to calling it now. Lula remains at 51.4%, and up to a *99%* chance of winning in this live model.
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Lula's advance looks more like vote switching than a turnout effect. Turnout *is* up, but has actually risen more in Bolsonaro areas.
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Forecast is stabilising around 51.4-48.6. Lula closing in.
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Most of the country has swung to Lula since round 1.
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Confidence intervals starting to tighten. Lula nudges past 95% with 20% counted.
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15% in now, still hovering around 90-95% chance of Lula win.
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Update with just over 10% counted. Possible the voting extension is changing when votes are reported within each jurisdiction, but we should be getting quite a stable outcome quite soon.
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Lula now above a 90% chance of winning.
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A pretty remarkable turnaround if this holds.
Patrick Flynn@patrickjfl5h
🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:23 BRT, 3.2% counted Lula 52.1% (95% CI: 48.6-55.6) Flávio Bolsonaro 47.9% (44.4-51.4) Lula wins: 88% Count so far: Lula 51.3%, Flávio 48.7% #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
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🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:17 BRT, 2.2% counted Lula 51.7% (95% CI: 47.9-55.5) Flávio Bolsonaro 48.3% (44.5-52.1) Lula wins: 83% Count so far: Lula 51.7%, Flávio 48.3% #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
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Quite shocked, but Lula clear favourite. 🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:10 BRT, 1.6% counted Lula 52.7% (95% CI: 49.7-55.7) Flávio Bolsonaro 47.3% (44.3-50.3) Count so far: Lula 52.1%, Flávio 47.9% #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
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PLEASE NOTE: Take this with an extreme pinch of salt - built v quickly, but 🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 1.5% counted Lula 52.2% (95% CI: 48.7-55.6) Flávio Bolsonaro 47.8% (44.4-51.3) Count so far: Lula 52.2%, Flávio 47.8% #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
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Lula probably the favourite here now, but VERY early. Will post model updates shortly.
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Sam Freedman@SamfrOct 22
New post: We have exclusive new polling from @focaldataHQ - looking at how views of AI are developing and how it's affecting voting. They look at why the US debate is so much more polarised by party than here - and whether we could go the same way. samf.substack.com/p/ai-as-th…
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Model has predicted it for 2 hours but I've seen enough: Bolsonaro will win 47-45. See you in 2 weeks. 🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 19:30 BRT, 81.5% counted Lula 44.9% (95% CI: 44.6-45.2) Flávio Bolsonaro 47.2% (46.9-47.5) #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
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*3 weeks
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Bolsonaro drops below 50% with 70m in. 🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 19:07 BRT, 61.0% counted Lula 44.7% (95% CI: 44.1-45.4) Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4% (46.7-48.0) Runoff: >99% chance Bolsonaro 1st: >99% Count so far: Lula 42.0%, Flávio 49.8% #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
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