@petebray

I make software, grow dahlias, & analyze MI + NV elections. 3 bootstrapped exits. AI deregulationist. Pro sm + all biz. Abolish barriers to economic abundance.

 Reno, NV
Joined March 2009
  • Tweets3.1K
  • Following3.4K
  • Followers20.5K
412Media
The Bray model has correctly predicted every race in Nevada since November 8, 1864. I remember that one like it was yesterday... Blasdel vs Buell. Ah the memories.
Bob@FourtotheBoardsOct 20
Replying to @petebray
How has your model been in the past? Bc not making sense to me. Ev seems to be going well for gop and itll only get redder. Statewide, gop did very well today.
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Flip. Flop. Flip. Flop. Another evening, another strong Dem close. Clark keeps adding to Nevada's Dem lead. Since 6:13 p.m., new mail is 350 Dems to 171 Republicans, and new in person voters are 232 to 147. The statewide gap grows to 10,282, or D+4.13. No new Washoe or rural numbers in this update.
petebray
@petebray15h
Nevada improved for GOP this morning and early afternoon.
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Nevada improved for GOP this morning and early afternoon.
petebray
@petebray19h
A little of that GOP mail catchup is showing up. The Bray Model has Lombardo +0.89, barely changed from +0.88 last night. Dems still add to their turnout lead, but new Clark and Washoe mail is less blue. Same assumptions. Still a squeaker.
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Model adjustment and forecast incoming...
petebray
@petebrayOct 21
The GOP's head start among Clark's past mail voters is nearly gone. Among past in person voters, Dems' turnout lead has grown, even counting mail switchers. My model has Lombardo narrowly ahead, but the Republican recovery still isn't broad enough.
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No model adjustment made after all.
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A little of that GOP mail catchup is showing up. The Bray Model has Lombardo +0.89, barely changed from +0.88 last night. Dems still add to their turnout lead, but new Clark and Washoe mail is less blue. Same assumptions. Still a squeaker.
petebray
@petebrayOct 21
The GOP's head start among Clark's past mail voters is nearly gone. Among past in person voters, Dems' turnout lead has grown, even counting mail switchers. My model has Lombardo narrowly ahead, but the Republican recovery still isn't broad enough.
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Nevada latest batch... Dem statewide lead has grown, BUT the new urban mail is less Dem than the earlier batches. Clark added 4972 D and 3553 R; Washoe new mail basically even. That's some support for the GOP mail catchup. Model update and forecast incoming.
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Welp, a big new mail batch arrived... so I need to integrate before Bray Model forecast. Hold on...
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Michigan's redder mail mix is holding: Trump counties have 48.08% of returns vs. 47.38% at this point in '24. Statewide IPEV starts Saturday. The key test: do Dems turn up in person while some GOP voters move to mail (as we've seen in Nevada/etc)? Mail alone won't settle this.
petebray
@petebrayOct 19
Michigan's mail returns still aren't showing a blue tsunami. Since my Oct 16 update: 53k more returns. Counties Trump won now have 47.91%,vs. 47.83% then and 47.12% at this point in '24. Three days later, the redder mix is holding.
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petebray retweeted
petebray
@petebray22h
Replying to @DefiantLs
It almost did! They got a nonprofit journalist outfit staffed with the biggest name in Oregon investigative journalism to accept her story, publish it with fake deepfake evidence, launder it through federal representatives who called it a “disgusting racist attack” (making it immune to most things)… when it all fell apart they simply deleted their tweets and article and a mere “we regret the error.” They do this again and again with no consequences.
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> "the truth needs to be imposed" on them. Words from Oregon's Rep Maxine Dexter now-deleted post calling the video a "racist, disgusting attack" and a "deepfake." The flag WAS upside down. OJP retracted, and OpenAI's tool flagged the image OJP presented as authentic as AI-generated. Dexter demanded AI regulation. Will she now publicly correct the record? Or just delete and be on her not-so-merry way?
Oregon Journalism Project@OregonJournProjOct 20
Editor's Note: Retraction oregonjournalismproject.org/…
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"the truth needs to be imposed" on them. Truly chilling. Whose truth exactly? That of the partisan "journalism" outfit that fanned the flames with a fake deepfake article? That her special cadre of "experts" tells her?
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Just so we have a record of what the Democrats said about this fake deepfake. The "bad actor" in this case was Fai (or someone allied with her)!
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The Bray Model MAY tackle Michigan Senate tomorrow. As you may know, this model has correctly predicted every Michigan election since Sibley vs. May in 1798, when ol' Solomon Sibley ALLEGEDLY used liquor to gin up turnout. (An open bar was one of my original keys to power.) Stay tuned!
petebray
@petebrayOct 19
Michigan's mail returns still aren't showing a blue tsunami. Since my Oct 16 update: 53k more returns. Counties Trump won now have 47.91%,vs. 47.83% then and 47.12% at this point in '24. Three days later, the redder mix is holding.
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Trigger warning! A little bit of a gloomy vote history analysis coming up for NV vote watchers... err, for GOP-aligned vote watchers. 🙁
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xitter.cf/petebray/status/211274…
petebray
@petebrayOct 21
The GOP's head start among Clark's past mail voters is nearly gone. Among past in person voters, Dems' turnout lead has grown, even counting mail switchers. My model has Lombardo narrowly ahead, but the Republican recovery still isn't broad enough.
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The GOP's head start among Clark's past mail voters is nearly gone. Among past in person voters, Dems' turnout lead has grown, even counting mail switchers. My model has Lombardo narrowly ahead, but the Republican recovery still isn't broad enough.
petebray
@petebrayOct 21
Evening Braycast: Lombardo +0.88, barely up from +0.83 this morning. GOP gains at the polls help, but new Clark mail favors Dems 2,592 to 1,237. The model still needs GOP mail catchup. Without it, my model has Nevada effectively tied.
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petebray retweeted
petebray
@petebrayOct 21
> "the truth needs to be imposed" on them. Words from Oregon's Rep Maxine Dexter now-deleted post calling the video a "racist, disgusting attack" and a "deepfake." The flag WAS upside down. OJP retracted, and OpenAI's tool flagged the image OJP presented as authentic as AI-generated. Dexter demanded AI regulation. Will she now publicly correct the record? Or just delete and be on her not-so-merry way?
Oregon Journalism Project@OregonJournProjOct 20
Editor's Note: Retraction oregonjournalismproject.org/…
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So @axios and @OregonJournProj reported that a candidate was targeted by a "deepfake." BUT the flag WAS upside down. And they've BOTH now retracting their stories. Will either now investigate who supplied the image that OpenAI's tool flagged as AI-generated? Will they question the candidate and her team about it? Isn't that "speaking truth to power"? Or is that reserved for internet randos, while this gets a mere "we regret the error" and everyone moves on? (Except Maxine who is still pushing this as a "malignant AI deepfake.")
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Dexter deleted her tweet citing the now-retracted story to demand AI regulation. The flag really was upside down. Here's her tweet.
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petebray retweeted
petebray
@petebrayOct 21
So @axios and @OregonJournProj reported that a candidate was targeted by a "deepfake." BUT the flag WAS upside down. And they've BOTH now retracting their stories. Will either now investigate who supplied the image that OpenAI's tool flagged as AI-generated? Will they question the candidate and her team about it? Isn't that "speaking truth to power"? Or is that reserved for internet randos, while this gets a mere "we regret the error" and everyone moves on? (Except Maxine who is still pushing this as a "malignant AI deepfake.")
This quoted post is unavailable.
Try viewing anyway · View on X
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