Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @CSIS
The main focus of US policy should be risk reduction and self reliance on key sectors from rare earths to semiconductor manufacturing domestically so we don't need to give a shit what China does or doesn't do to Taiwan.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Not knowing that a steer is a bull whoโs had his nuts removedโฆand using it to describe Paxton is justโฆpeak MAGAโฆ
Jesus fucking Christ ๐คฆ
Know the difference.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
A steer is a castrated male cattle, preferred for meat production due to lower testosterone and docile temperament.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steer
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
๐จ THE NEXT GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS COULD START WITH CHINA BUYING OIL
Ken Griffin says oil could have been near $200. Instead, itโs around $100.
WHY? CHINA.
China dramatically reduced its oil purchases to protect refiners and control inflation, helping absorb a massive global supply shock.
Even some of Wall Streetโs biggest commodity experts underestimated the scale.
What happens when China starts buying oil again?
And thatโs only HALF the story.
China has stacked gold for 23 straight months and also announced internationalizing its Chinese Yuan for global trade and settlement for the first time ever.
BRICS is rolling out their gold-backed, blockchain-based trade and settlement system, that completely bypasses U.S. dollars.
Hong Kong and Shanghai have built gold-settlement plumbing that can clear without going through the dollar. Russia and China have transacted a record flow with oil-gold transactions.
China has drained nearly $800 Billion liquidity from their U.S. Treasuries holdings. It's their biggest sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis.
The CCP can never replace the dollar, but theyโre taking advantage of the situation in real time.
Why it matters: If confidence in Treasuries cracks, paper assets do not drift lower politely. Gold can reprice violently. China wants an escape hatch if that day comes.
This was exactly warned by the famous City of London banker @LordBelgrave at the start of the year.
The dollar does not lose because China posts a gold contract. It loses if America refuses to get its fiscal house in order.
ใคใฉใณใฏใ็ฑณๅฝใจใฎๆฆไบใซๅใคใใใฎๆฆ็ฅใฎไธ็ฐใจใใฆใๆฅๆฌใไพๅญใใ็ณๆฒนใฎๆตใใๅฆจๅฎณใใๆๅณใใใใใใซ่ฆใใใ
ๆฑไบฌใฏใๆฅๆฌใฎใจใใซใฎใผๅฎๅ
จไฟ้ใๅทปใๆทปใ่ขซๅฎณใจใชใใใจใ่จฑใใชใใ
ใใฉใณใๆฟๆจฉใจใฎ้ใง้่ฆใชใจใใซใฎใผๅฎๅ
จไฟ้ๅๅผใ่กใใใใ
ใในใฆใฎใใฃใใซใๅฉ็จใใใใจไบๆณใใใใๆฅๆฌใฎใจใใซใฎใผ้่ฆใ็ขบไฟใใใใใฎใใชใใฌใณใง่กใใใๅๅผใๅซใใฆใ
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Per @MOFA_Taiwan this year ROC ("Taiwan") national day celebration received an "impressive" 190 foreign dignitaries, of which 115 were Eswatini King and his entourage, the only monarchy dictatorship left in Africa, regime heavily if not entirely subsidized by TW taxpayers.๐คทโโ๏ธ
A warm welcome to King Mswati III of #Eswatini๐ธ๐ฟ on his 20th visit to #Taiwan๐น๐ผ to celebrate our National Day! Min. @chia_lung greeted the King, marking 58+ years of friendship. HM will next be received by Pres. @ChingteLai with full military honors.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @AidanSimardone @apocalypseos
There was a time when China had a huge trade imbalance with the Brits, and the Brits used opium to reverse the imbalance.
The Chinesenas a people has a shockingly long recollection of history, just visit the Opium War Museum in Humen and talk to any 10yo kid.
This will not end well for the Brits.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @Unveiled_ChinaX
Anyone with a sense of economics would instantly understand this spending "record" is bullshit propaganda.
Pegged to the dollar, first-half inbound spending fell about $1.6 billion, or roughly 5%.
Using the Tourism Agencyโs 4.8469 trillion yen (+1.3%) and monthly-average USD/JPY of about 148.5 in the first half of 2025 versus 158.1 in the first half of 2026:
โขH1 2025: about $32.2 billion
โขH1 2026: about $30.7 billion
โขChange: โ$1.6 billion, โ4.8%
The nominal yen record is the weaker currency. In dollars, Japan took in less.
@grok verified the numbers already.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @McFaul
I don't know what kind of crack you're smoking but it's gotta be pretty good.
A country with history of being fucked in the ass by westerners is not building up their military because they want to bomb the shit out of others, kidnap foreign leaders or steal their oil. They're doing it so they won't get raped again, ever.
Have you ever visited China and talked to their officials? Regular people? Good lord even a teenager in China will explain to you what happened during the 19th and 20th century. It's a national shame they carry collectively.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @JChengWSJ
I have a lot of respect for our military and their leaders, but telling us fighting the Chinese will result in zero cost and zero casualties is just smoking crack.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @FT
Misleading headline. China received mining rights, not ownership rights. China will also have to invest their own money for surveying, mining, and refining, plus royalties to the Nicaraguan government. This relates to a $2B loan package to improve infrastructure in Nicaragua.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Some really important points being made here by @sorlins, probably one of the Americans who best knows China given he's lived there half his adult life (since 1979) and has been heading the National Committee on United StatesโChina Relations (NUSCR) for the past 20 years.
He is interviewed by my friend @Hansong_Li, whose podcast I watch religiously (and you should too)!
There is this oft-repeated narrative, that you hear all the time, that China didn't change, at least in terms of freedoms, since the 70s or 80s, and some people even sometimes go as far as saying that things have gotten worse.
Orlins, who actually lived through it all from the very start (since he was a member of the legal team that helped establish diplomatic relations between both countries), shows how wrong this is, and how it's day and night compared to how it used to be.
I wrote about this previously around my review of the book "Alone on the Great Wall" by William Lindesay (nitter.gq/RnaudBertrand/status/1โฆ): back in 1987 he tried to run along the Great Wall, an extremely difficult task given that over 90% of the country - including most of the Great Wall - was simply forbidden to access by foreigners. Lindesay was detained again and again by the police along the way, and at one point was even expelled from China.
Compare this to today where, as Orlins points out, "there are no restrictions... now if I wanna go to Chongqing, Harbin, wherever, I just go."
Same thing, back in the 70s or 80s, Chinese people simply couldn't speak freely to foreigners: a Chinese person hosting a foreigner at home would typically need their work unit's (ๅไฝ, dฤnwรจi) approval - a painful bureaucratic process that most people wouldn't bother with.
Today not only are there no restrictions for this anymore either, but the danwei itself, as it existed back then, has disappeared too: now most people work in the private sector, rent or buy their homes on the open market, and their employer has no say whatsoever over who they invite for dinner.
Heck, a good case can be made that today the situation is almost the opposite. The Chinese are, proportionally, several times more likely than Americans to study abroad: only around 90,000 Americans are enrolled in full degree programs abroad (iie.org/research-initiativesโฆ), versus over a million Chinese (migrationdataportal.org/themโฆ), so in a very real way the Chinese are now more open to the world than the Americans.
Same thing for foreign visitors to China: not only are there no restrictions anymore to where you can visit or who you can speak with, but chances are you don't even need a visa to visit China - which is the case for citizens of 50 countries, who can stay up to 30 days just by showing their passport (china-briefing.com/news/chinโฆ).
When you compare and contrast this with the US - especially given Trump's clampdown on foreign visitors, with a travel ban now covering 39 countries (congress.gov/crs-product/IN1โฆ), you see two countries heading in opposite directions: China opening its doors while America closes them.
Lastly, there is the point of diversity of thought that Orlins raises, which is one of the worst misconceptions about China, a country that people sometimes imagine as a monolith where 1.4 billion people all think the same thing.
As Orlins points out, anyone who's actually sat in meetings with Chinese academics or officials knows they openly disagree on everything, and there is actually a very large diversity of opinions.
In fact, I'd wager that the range of views on many matters is probably more diverse in China than it is in the US: if you speak to some businessmen, you'll find views fairly similar to what you'd hear in Wall Street, while at the other end you can just as easily find plenty of people who'd happily abolish the private market altogether.
By comparison, the American economic debate is basically between those who think the market is always right and those who think it's almost always right ๐
I suspect that this wrong narrative - that China didn't change and therefore "engagement failed" - is because amongst all these changes it managed to remain sovereign, changing in ways that no one in Washington got to decide.
Engagement did transform China profoundly: what it didn't do is turn it into a client state, and it's hard to escape the impression that, for some, that's what they mean by "engagement failed."
By the way, if you want to watch the full interview, which I encourage you to, it's here: youtube.com/watch?v=Pf1LhCudโฆ
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @TheAtlantic @vmsalama
For me it's not about isolationism but more domestic focus and investment. America's core interest should always be her ability to compete globally, and to do so you need a solid supply of STEM graduates not lawyers & Wall Street traders, funding basic and advanced scientific research, robust social safety net, free public education, updated infrastructure, and financial support for domestic R&D, engineering and manufacturing.
Our biggest exports today are war & debt, and not physical goods.
Yeeyan Phlegming ๐บ๐ธ๐๐ retweeted
Replying to @greg_ip
I argue that the Chinese as a society avoids using debt to fuel spending and therefore have a lot more room to absorb economic shocks (loss or reduction of income due to macro economic issues).
I believe American consumer spending will fall off a cliff as credit dries up.




























