Looking to survive. Authenticity wins. Sharing mistakes is more important than sharing wins. @packers part owner.
Plant City, FL
Joined May 2019
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Trump was born to be a gay comedian in NYC.
Unfortunately for us, he was also born into extreme wealth and an anti-gay father. So he repressed his inner calling - and endlessly searches for the attention he would have had on stage.
That’s everything you need to know about Trump
Expecting a pretty bad Monday.
$QQQ +1.5% the day after dropping 6-7% feels like the worst of all scenarios. Would have preferred continued selling for exhaustion (or of course a complete reversal like tariff taco day).
This gives bulls a shred of hope, just to rip hearts out.
$TSLA - TESLA TO END CYBERTRUCK PRODUCTION IN MAJOR AI PIVOT
Elon Musk announced Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027, freeing capacity at Gigafactory Texas for Cybercab robotaxi production.
The Cybertruck fell far short of Tesla's 250,000 annual sales target.
US sales dropped 48% in 2025 to just 20,237 vehicles, with another 38% decline through September 2026.
Tesla is now doubling down on AI-powered autonomous driving as its next major growth opportunity.
If you don’t think it’s over, you should be buying here.
If you think it’s over, you should be selling here.
Subscribe to my Substack.
I find it cute when people discuss valuations of memory stocks as if anyone trading them gives a shit about p/e and isn’t just momentum trading.
Today I met with a veteran investor who argued that memory stocks are not cheap even at a P/E of 3. Below is an edited version of our conversation.
Memory LTAs are basically meaningless. The best the LTAs being signed today can do is get customers to shoulder part of the memory makers' capex. Once prices fall, customers will gladly forfeit their deposits (prepayments) and walk away from the LTAs.
Historically, whenever prices fell more than 60% from the peak, customers broke their LTAs even after signing them.
So even if a 2027 shortage is certain and the stocks trade at a P/E of 3 on 2027 operating profit, 2028 operating profit is uncertain, which makes it hard to justify a higher valuation.
He went on to argue that even if 2028 operating profit were certain, we would still have to account for 2029 operating profit.
I pushed back and asked why the market doesn't discount TSMC the same way. Why does TSMC get such a high valuation? Wouldn't TSMC also take a big hit if the AI boom fades?
His answer: the problem was how violently memory prices rose in the first place.
If memory makers had raised prices in a healthy way like TSMC, it might be a different story. But because they hiked prices like a commodity, the market has no choice but to treat memory stocks like commodity stocks.
Even if memory makers stay in shortage through 2030, he said, the market will price in the risk of oversupply in 2031.
He closed his argument this way: even at 3x 2027 earnings, if memory prices fall in 2028 by enough to break LTAs, that 3x multiple on 2027 works out to 7.8 to 10x on 2028. So current valuations are not cheap.
Maybe unpopular opinion with the stock down 8%, but $MELI looks solid. No surprises re:profitability.
User growth continues to be strong at scale.
Member utilization improving.
Right now this business is at like 30-32x 2027 earnings assuming a 10% miss vs ests?
MERCADOLIBRE $MELI Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $10.75B (Est. $10.66B) 🟢; +45% YoY
🔹 EPS: $8.83 (Est. $9.36) 🔴; +6% YoY
🔹 Income from Operations: $676M (Est. $731M) 🔴
🔹 Net Income: $448M (Est. $476M) 🔴
Customers & Assets:
🔹 MAUs: 93M; +29% YoY
🔹 Credit Portfolio: ~$18B; +62% YoY
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Total Payment Volume: $109.00B; +53% YoY
🔹 Gross Merchandise Volume: $23.00B; +38% YoY
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 94M; +22% YoY
🔹 NIMAL: 20.1%; -90 bps YoY
🔹 Revenue FX-neutral: +41%
Announcements:
🔹 AI Advisor: 56,000 sellers; almost 4x in three months
🔹 Engage+: AI launched across six sites
🔹 Netflix Partnership: Joining connected TV offering in early 2027
🔹 Fintech AI assistant conversations: 19mn in September
FinTwit now that @TMTLongShort and @rabois will no longer tweet about politics.
