More ant. Less grasshopper. Dad to 4 great kids & Sp🅰️ceMob clueless cult member
Joined June 2013
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$ASTS: SpaceX files a new STA for pre-launch Falcon 9 payload RF testing for AST SpaceMobile BlueBird-2 missions from Cape Canaveral.
This STA extends the existing one that is in place by another 6 months from 7/10/2026 through 7/10/2027.
$ASTS - SpaceX files a new STA for pre-launch payload RF testing for the BlueBird-2 missions from CCSFS
The STA is for operations from 1/10/27 to 7/10/27. The current STA is valid from 7/10-1/10/27
Takeaway - yes SpaceX will be launching more BlueBird Missions for AST
apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/repor…
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$ASTS: Definitely a volatile day to say the least.
Up 3-4%, down as much as 6%, while also breaking down through support near $36.5 (needs to recover the latter today or we could hit the 200w sma at around $33).
The market is trying to sort through all the ramifications of a Blue Tsunami that occurred yesterday in the U.S. midterms.
I think AI data centers will certainly take a hit, if only temporarily, and anything Musk owns will as well. That's just the markets front-running what they think Dems will do once they are sworn in next year.
However, I believe the markets will also start to price in a stop to the Iran war, and therefore inflation will fall due to declining oil prices, which would be very good for growth stocks.
Remember, value is currently overbought and growth is currently deeply oversold.
A law of averages suggests a massive rotation is on the horizon.
I know it feels like pure chaos and every day is red, but this is just part of a normal corrective cycle for growth. I've seen it many times before and the sun will shine oncemore.
GLTA and NFA...
$ASTS: Seeing a potential breakdown here.
It has to hold at the current level (~36.5) or it could go much lower.
RSI has also crossed below its MA as well, so we're going to chop at oversold levels for a little bit it would seem.
If it holds the current support level (purple rectangle), that would be extremely bullish as it implies it's bottoming out along with daily RSI, the latter of which is hovering around 30.
I'm continuing to hold longer-dated calls as well as my core position.
GLTA and NFA...
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BREAKING: US stock market futures erase all losses and turn positive on the day.
A massive post-election reversal is currently underway.
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🚨 THIS IS 6G! $ASTS 🚨
This seamless handover is a moment as important as the first cellphone call.
That was when cellular networks conquered the terrestrial domain and first connected to towers.
There has been an intermediate period of parallel networks, but now the systems has hybridized. They have fused.
Now it is one single converged multi-domain network. A heterosis effect. Not simply coexisting.
The power of that hybridisation will be fully understood only after the fact.
It’s one AI orchestrated multi-domain network from now on.
That’s new.
Humanity didn’t ever have that in their pocket/ on their wrist.
With new services, everywhere. Fusing not only two domains, but also the physical and digital words.
It might look gradual. But seamless handoffs really is THE gateway into this new fused multi-domain world. It’s not possible you see without deep core network assimilation of two radio access technologies.
We will see intelligent, sensing networks that has a reach and precise positioning way beyond legacy tower networks and we will see user equipment adapt to it at an accelerated pace going forward in what now is a global standards based mutualistic multi domain ecosystem.
With a user base that will surpass the number of humans as intelligent and autonomous machines needs this - craves it - and holds no biological barriers for their growth rate. This exact hybrid network and the seemless nature of it is a key enabler for machine communications drones and automotive.
Do not make the dinosaur analyst misstake to judge the future prospects of DTC by its current performance or by its value in isolation.
It’s premier function is to augment the existing terrestrial system. Not to stand alone. But to fuse and inform. And like the capacity of towers today is vastly beyond the capacity of towers 20 years ago. In such fashion will also the space component rapidly evolve.
Only much faster.
Much faster because time to deploy a new tier is not a decade as with the G’s it’s iterations more akin to the handset which we see new versions of every year. The sats on orbit will see upgrades at that rate and iterate very fast. Because payback time and time to field is measured in months not decades.
We observe this faster evolution already by simply plotting ASTs throughput over time. It will continue.
When your in the midst of it it seems slow. Looking back it will seem to have happened rapidly.
We made history today unlocking a defining function of 6G.
AT&T and AST SpaceMobile: Engineering the Connected World, One Handoff at a Time
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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AT&T and AST SpaceMobile: Engineering the Connected World, One Handoff at a Time
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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I’ve been thinking about how the sources of alpha have evolved over time.
1950s/60s: Information arbitrage. Buffett could uncover deeply undervalued businesses by studying financial statements and looking where few others bothered.
1970s/80s: Analytical edge. Understanding business quality, competitive advantages and long-term compounding before these concepts became widely appreciated.
1990s/2000s: Technology and data. Quantitative strategies, computing power and systematic exploitation of market inefficiencies.
2010s: Information became increasingly democratized. The internet, financial databases and sophisticated screening tools made traditional analytical advantages harder to sustain.
2020s and beyond: AI is rapidly commoditizing information gathering, financial analysis and more broadly, intelligence.
My suspicion is that today’s edge increasingly lies in the ability to endure volatility (both mentally and financially) without abandoning a sound thesis. To look wrong for extended periods while waiting to be proven right.
The edge of today may be patience. It’s less about having the funds or the stomach to buy the downturn, and more about structuring your mind and finances so that you don’t sell it.
Factor and sector rotations off of day to day and often conflicting data points have been a hallmark of the 2026 market. Not sure if its algos or just heavy retail participation or both.
But I would say this: stop reacting to the daily data points - especially during earnings. It's stupid and a recipe for getting chopped into oblivion. While earnings reports are useful for directional trends on sectors, every company is different. Obviously. And different things impact quarters.
To wit - its Thursday.
Sunday night: AI trade over.
Monday after Anthropic S1 out: Oh there's a healthcare TAM here and inherent operating leverage on compute, buy AI!
Tuesday: AI stable, sell $SPOT!
Weds: Send AI
Weds PM: $GOOGL sucks, puke it, its over. Buy $META (why? idk). $NOW sucks puke it. Capex peak in sight (in line with consensus) puke AI. $MSFT good, buy it.
Thurs: AI over, software over buy $SPOT. $MSFT good but its AI and software, sell it.
Try and have an investment view anchored in what you believe to be confirming data points you expect to see in coming weeks, months, years. Hedge tactically as the data points inevitably aren't linear. Barbell core investments with tactical trades to hedge and take advantage of the rotational chop. Such trades are best in highly liquid securities. But if you trade like a bipolar lunatic - much like the market has traded - you will not do well.
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The blue field shows the ramp up of the constellation at a production & launch rate of 4 per month.
It’s my current floor estimate of output capacity from observing gating item input rate june-nov at at least that pace. (Might be higher if there are add’l sources of those items). Might also be lower if other constraints are bottlenecks, namely testing / TVAC. But I think ~4/mo is fair / accurate.
The yellow field shows an additional ramp up during 2027 of adding 2+2 per month on top of that. Also reasonable to assume as they’re targeting 6 currently and are ramping beyond that.
As can be seen production cadence together with orbital dwell time decides ultimate constellation size.
Therefore production rate and ramp up decides not only when the product comes to market, but also together with dwell time the ultimate scale of the business. Size of fleet.
$ASTS
However, what exact month they’re launched on, if for example 3 satellites or 6 sit and wait a few weeks for next launch, is ultimately of zero importance to the things that matter.
Please chill with “launch delays” on weekly timeframe. Production rate on the monthly timeframe is what matters along with orbital dwell measured in years. 3 sats sitting a few weeks at Astrotech is just noise not signal.
Launch will be there for those with cash and AST has that.
A few conclusions can be made. As for example: To keep cranking out satellites while in parallel setting up new shops for more production capacity might be a good idea.
You don’t want the existing production line to pause to field new versions, but rather use new versions as an opportunity to expand the overall production footprint and overall constellation size.
We can see new AST production sites popping up all over Midland to that effect.
Another revelation is how important the long orbital dwell time is. The graph shows 7 years. AST satellites believed to live 7-10 years. So 7 is conservative.
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$ASTS: SpaceMob has confirmed 8x composite rings have arrived in Midland, TX 🫡
Another shipment of 8 structural crates reportedly arrived in Midland today aboard an Antonov.
AST SpaceMobile’s supply chain is moving.
Midland is where the magic happens. 🚀 $ASTS
#ASTSpaceMobile #BlueBird #ASTS
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BREAKING: Short interest in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, is up to ~82 million shares, its highest since March 2023.
Over the last several weeks, this figure has surged +18 million shares, or +28%.
Year-to-date, short interest in $QQQ has nearly doubled.
Meanwhile, short interest in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has declined -30 million shares since March, to ~92 million shares, near its lowest in at least 5 years.
By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, short interest peaked at ~90 million shares for $QQQ and ~180 million shares for $SPY.
Short interest in tech is very high right now.
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Apparently $ASTS lost some (not most, that’s the market, but some) shareprice due to waiting for launch an extra 5 weeks and 5 days post production of last batch.
I have held AST for more than 5.5 years.
And so this “delay” registers as 2% of the timeline.
And putting a launch or two worth of BlueBirds on the shelf for a few weeks changes exactly nothing on that timeframe.
Launch will catch up soon enough and time to full constellation hasn’t changed a minute due to this. People should therefore chill out a bit and remain focused on the price.
Can’t freak out one week that launch is more plentiful than production only to freak out over the opposite next week. It’s not healthy.
It’s perfectly normal in the space industry to sit and wait for launch multiple months and routinely (= more often than not) launches slip by days to weeks for operational reasons.
Man up.
$ASTS $SPCX: 🚨The next Falcon 9 launch out of Florida now has a date -- November 29 at around 11 AM EST for the @northropgrumman Cygnus NG-25 resupply mission to the International @Space_Station.
The "6 week pause" is scheduled to terminate on November 29.
This is according to Ben Cooper's Launch Viewing Guide, which I view as the most reliable launch manifest other than seeing the date directly published by @SpaceX or their customer.
After this launch, @AST_SpaceMobile has BB14-16 ready to go and waiting at @AstrotechSpace so hopefully AST's mission is soon after (TO BE CONFIRMED). And even more hopefully AST will have BB17-19 shipped and waiting for its launch as well. 🤝
launchphotography.com/Launch…
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$ASTS: This story is making the rounds so I am going to address it: floridatoday.com/story/tech/…
On October 21, SpaceX VP Kiko Dontchev stated that SpaceX has a 6 week gap before the next Falcon 9 launch out of Florida, reason being for prep for Starship's debut in Florida. The 6 week gap aligns with Ben Cooper's manifest noting a "late November" launch for the Northrop Grumman Cygnus NG-25 mission, so this should be the next F9 launch being referenced by Kiko Dontchev.
What this means for @AST_SpaceMobile:
+ BB14-16 are at Astrotech integrating for launch, and will be ready to go as soon as SpaceX Falcon 9 can launch them probably in December.
+ Why did AST ship if they don't have a launch? In my view it's one or both of two reasons: (1) AST was blindsided by SpaceX's sudden pause and/or (2) AST shipped to make room at their factory
+ This 6 week gap explains AST's silence on launch date PR. Their hands are literally tied.
+ Note that this Falcon 9 pause is not unique-to-ASTS as it impacts all Falcon 9 launches out of Florida, although you could make an argument that AST's payload is really the only one being impacted by this pause. That being said, I don't know the status of other Falcon 9 payloads that may or may not be impacted. Prep for Starship is a good excuse/reason though but yes it is unfortunate that AST's launch is being impacted.
+ How AST manages the narrative from here will be key, whether they do it with an interim update now or wait for the Q3 earnings call on November 9. The best thing for us shareholders and sentiment would be if AST can signal that production is going well and batches are continuing to get done and stockpile for a more rapid launch cadence starting in December when Falcon 9 returns to operation in Florida.
--> Note that if AST's production is going well in the background, then I think this pause from SpaceX helps explain the unusual gap between BB11-13 and BB14-16. And as mentioned in bullet 3 above, this explains the weird comms from AST surrounding BB14-16 batch.
--> Astrotech should have plenty of room to accept more BlueBirds if we can ship another batch or two while we wait for SpaceX to resume F9 operations in Florida.
In adjacent/related news, our boots on the ground are reporting that more shipping containers are arriving in Midland soon, which is a positive sign for more shipments coming in the near term: nitter.gq/DanteePacheco/status/2…
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VERIZON RULES OUT MVNO DEAL WITH SPACEX
During their earnings call, the following was noted
"I will say, and I'll repeat it again, that there are no back doors to any of our MVNO agreements, and I see absolutely no benefit whatsoever to extending an MVNO deal to any satellite provider. I don't buy into the idea of this prisoner's dilemma. That's ridiculous.
There is no benefit to Verizon extending an MVNO deal. Um, and, and we look forward to being able to, for six years to finally punch back. And we'll punch back hard when that happens."
$ASTS $SPCX $VZ $TMUS $T
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The AST SpaceMobile network is taking shape, in orbit and on the ground.
Today, over 60 gateways are in various stages of completion, installation and planning worldwide.
Initial, intermittent coverage targeted before year-end 2026 in the U.S. and other key markets around the world.
A new layer of connectivity, designed to connect directly to the smartphones people already use.
🇺🇸 📶🌎📱
#ASTSpaceMobile #ConnectingtheUnconnected
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$ASTS: 🚨🇧🇷 BRISANET, UNIFIQUE AND IEZ! SIGN COMMERCIAL AGREEMENTS WITH AST SPACEMOBILE TO OFFER DIRECT-TO-DEVICE SERVICE THROUGHOUT BRAZIL OVER 700MHZ SPECTRUM
BRISANET SERVIÇOS DE TELECOMUNICAÇÕES S.A.Publicly held CompanyCorporate Taxpayers ID (CNPJ/MF) n° 04.601.397/0001-28Company Registry (NIRE) 23.3.0004573-4CVM Code: 27.693MATERIAL FACTCOMMERCIAL AGREEMENT WITH AST SPACEMOBILE
Brisanet Serviços de Telecomunicações S.A. (B3: BRST3) ("Company" or "Brisanet"), in accordance with Article 157(4) of Law No. 6,404, dated December 15, 1976, and in accordance with CVM Resolution No. 44, dated August 23, 2021, hereby informs its shareholders and the market in general that, together with Unifique Telecomunicações S.A. and lez! Telecom, it has signed a Commercial Agreement with AST SpaceMobile to offer mobile satellite broadband services (also known as Direct-to-Device-D2D) throughout Brazil.
Regional mobile operators will make available the 700 MHz band radio frequencies they hold and will be responsible for investing in the infrastructure needed to connect their mobile networks to AST SpaceMobile's satellite constellation via ground gateways.
The collaboration aims to enable voice calls, broadband data, and video streaming directly on standard smartphones, without any modifications, eliminating the need for specialized equipment, software updates, or apps. By integrating satellite connectivity into its existing mobile network, the company aims to expand coverage wherever people live, work, and travel, allowing customers to stay connected even when they are out of range of terrestrial networks.
The initiative reinforces the commitment of regional operators to expand connectivity throughout the country and complements the investments they are already making to expand their terrestrial networks.
According to José Roberto Nogueira, founder and CEO: "The partnership with AST SpaceMobile complements our network and allows us to extend connectivity beyond the reach of our terrestrial infrastructure, offering customers access to voice and mobile broadband services in more locations using the smartphones they already own; this secures Brisanet's place in the future of connectivity."
The final details of the agreement are still being negotiated, and the transaction is subject to certain conditions. The Company will keep the market informed of the transaction's progress and any new developments.
Pereiro/CE, October 23, 2026
Luciana Paulo Ferreira
Investor Relations Officer
