UK voting intention polls, seat projections & calculators. Independent tracker | Westminster • Locals
London, England
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Something fun 🚨
I've put together the story of the May 7th elections - English Locals, Holyrood and the Senedd
pollcheck.co.uk/elections-20…
Take a journey through 2026 - Reform took most seats in England, and won seats in Holyrood and the Senedd for the first time
Labour lost 460 seats in London, while both the Greens and Reform gained London Boroughs for the first time
Did you know that in 18 councils, the party with the most votes didn't win the most seats? Or that 8 seats were decided by a single vote?
Scroll through the story here: pollcheck.co.uk/elections-20…
PollCheck retweeted
We are approaching the time of the year where the 6-month rule takes effect.
After 6th November 2026, any casual vacancy that occurs in a local authority, must have its by-election delayed to LE2027.
This only occurs if the councillor's term would have ended in 2027.
If the councillor's term ends in 2028-2031, a by-election is still held.
Something different for a limited time - there's now some US midterm polling and forecasts on the site for those interested
pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-…
Lowest Reform polling from @YouGov since Jan 2025 when tracker started
Holyrood Voting Intention
Constituency:
SNP: 34.0% (-4)
Labour: 18.0% (-1)
Reform UK: 13.0% (-3)
Conservative: 12.0% N/C
Liberal Democrats: 9.0% (-2)
Greens: 7.0% (+5)
Regional:
SNP: 28.0% (+1)
Labour: 17.0% (+1)
Greens: 15.0% (+1)
Conservative: 13.0% (+1)
Reform UK: 13.0% (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 9.0% N/C
Via: Norstat
Field Work: 20 - 23 Oct changes w/ 2026
Satisfaction with party leaders and the government (satisfied / dissatisfied, net):
Kemi Badenoch: 35% / 39%, net −4
Andy Burnham: 35% / 45%, net −10
Ed Davey: 20% / 42%, net −22
Zack Polanski: 17% / 56%, net −39
Nigel Farage: 22% / 64%, net −42
The government: 23% / 66%, net −43
Via: Ipsos Political Monitor.
Fieldwork 15 to 22 October 2026.
New Westminster MRP:
Labour: 27% / 280 seats (−131)
Reform UK: 24% / 130 seats (+125)
Conservative: 21% / 116 seats (−5)
Lib Dem: 10% / 62 seats (−10)
Green: 10% / 6 seats (+2)
SNP: 3% / 26 seats (+17)
Plaid Cymru: 1% / 8 seats (+4)
Independent: 3 seats (−2)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Good Growth Foundation MRP.
Fieldwork 5 to 10 September 2026, n=10,301.
If true, this would be a Labour / Reform contest, with Labour likely holding on current polling
🚨 NEW: Rachel Reeves is rumoured to quit as an MP to "cash in" on her experience as Chancellor
It comes after she "secretly met" two City companies in the last fortnight
[@MillardClothier]
PollCheck projection of @Ipsos_in_the_UK poll:
Labour: 359 (-52)
Conservative: 147 (+26)
Liberal Democrats: 50 (-22)
SNP: 31 (+22)
Reform UK: 25 (+20)
Others: 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 7 (+3)
Green: 4 (=)
Restore Britain: 1 (new)
Changes w/GE2024
