Every Polymarket trade over $10k, scored in near real time. Whale size, wallet track records, insider-pattern flags. Arithmetic over public data, not advice.
Joined August 2026
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PolyRadar watches every large trade on Polymarket and scores the ones whose shape looks informed: a wallet opened days ago, long odds, real size, a short clock.
Arithmetic over public on-chain data, measured against the market's own odds.
Subscribers are alerted in real time.
Flagged at 40¢. The market now prices it at 90¢.
CD Pamplona vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5 — Wallet 0x2c33…0563 put $16k on Over at 40¢, with 1 day left on this Polymarket market. Still open — it can still go the other way. Subscribers saw the entry in real time.
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Flagged at 42¢. The market now prices it at 85¢.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market c… — Wallet 0xdaef…54e9 entered this Polymarket position at 42¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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Flagged at 34¢. The market now prices it at 80¢.
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market ca… — Wallet 0xf0ca…66ed entered this Polymarket position at 34¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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Flagged at 40¢. The market now prices it at 81¢.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market c… — Wallet 0xc408…4675 entered this Polymarket position at 40¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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Outside sports, a Polymarket ticket of $10k or more entered under 80¢ before the market's scheduled end beat its own price by 13.6 points over 58 resolved. 95% interval: +3.4 to +23.9.
Under 80¢ is where information still pays. Above it, the odds already agree with you.
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PolyRadar's own live signals, replayed: 453 resolved Polymarket positions beat the odds they paid by 4.6 points. 95% interval: +0.5 to +8.7.
An earlier run, on a quarter of that sample, came out negative. We published that one too.
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Flagged at 40¢. The market now prices it at 80¢.
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? — Wallet 0x2c33…0563 put $60k on No at 40¢, on this Polymarket market's own scheduled end date. Still open — it can still go the other way. Subscribers saw the entry in real time.
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1,061 large sports trades on Polymarket clearing our flag threshold, replayed against the odds each paid: +4.0 points, interval +1.2 to +6.9.
Outside sports the same bar is -0.6 over 91, interval -9.9 to +8.6. The threshold is carried by the one category we refuse to publish.
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Every flag PolyRadar raises is arithmetic you could redo yourself: ticket size against the market's own 24h tape, wallet age at the moment of the trade, entry price, and days left on the clock.
All public Polymarket inputs. We just watch all of it at once.
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US Open WTA: Madison Keys vs Alina Korneeva
A 6-day-old wallet put $33k on Madison Keys at 85¢, with 5 days left on this Polymarket market. It resolved Madison Keys, modeling $6k profit.
PolyRadar flagged the entry while the market was still open — subscribers saw it live.
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Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Wallet 0x629b…995a put $26k on No at 44¢, with 99 days left on this Polymarket market. It resolved No, modeling $33k profit.
PolyRadar flagged the entry while the market was still open — subscribers saw it live.
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Flagged at 45¢. The market now prices it at 91¢.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? — Wallet 0xfc2f…10c7 entered this Polymarket position at 45¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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PolyRadar watches Polymarket for large trades whose shape looks informed: a young wallet, long odds, real size, a short clock.
It scores them with arithmetic over public on-chain data. No model guesses at motive, and nobody here calls it insider trading.
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Our insider score sorts Polymarket trades. It does not rank them. Of five score bands over resolved sports positions, one beats the odds it paid with an interval clear of zero: 40-54, +3.7 points over 1,054 resolved, interval +0.7 to +6.6.
The band above it: -2.1 over 36.
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Flagged at 42¢. The market now prices it at 85¢.
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? — Wallet 0xdf1c…2ebb put $18k on No at 42¢, with 125 days left on this Polymarket market. Still open — it can still go the other way. Subscribers saw the entry in real time.
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Flagged at 26¢. The market now prices it at 97¢.
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mich… — Wallet 0xe234…304a entered this Polymarket position at 26¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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Flagged at 44¢. The market now prices it at 100¢.
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — Wallet 0x629b…995a entered this Polymarket position at 44¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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Flagged at 32¢. The market now prices it at 97¢.
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mich… — Wallet 0xc851…cd2a entered this Polymarket position at 32¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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Flagged at 23¢. The market now prices it at 97¢.
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mich… — Wallet 0x6139…6b7a entered this Polymarket position at 23¢. Still open — it can still go the other way.
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