Election Predictor and Political Commentary (@predictorelect) profile picture

Election Predictor and Political Commentary

@predictorelect

Election predictions, local and general level | Political analysis and commentary | E: [email protected]

 UK
patreon.com/ElectionPredictor
Joined March 2023
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GE projection based on LE English Projected National Share, Scottish Parliament constituency vote share, and Senedd vote share Ref 304 (+299) LD 96 (+24) Grn 59 (+55) Lab 50 (-361) SNP 47 (+38) Con 33 (-88) Oth 26 (+21) Plaid 16 (+12) Speaker 1 Reform short of maj. by 22
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My regression model GE2029 projection as at 10/05/2026 12pm, based on previous 7 days of GB-wide polling Reform 295 (+290) Lib Dem 81 (+9) Conservative 60 (-61) Green 60 (+56) Labour 55 (-356) SNP 44 (+35) Others 24 (+15) Plaid 12 (+8) Speaker 1 Reform short 31 of majority
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GE2029 forecast as at 30/01/2026 @ 11:27am Reform 324 (+319) Labour 94 (-317) Lib Dem 82 (+10) SNP 44 (+35) Conservative 40 (-81) Green 29 (+25) Plaid Cymru 10 (+6) Others 8 (+3) Speaker 1 NI 18 Reform short of majority by 2 Changes w/ GE2024 #Conservative #Labour #ReformUK
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Based on GB-wide polling published in the past 7 days, this is my model's GE2029 forecast: Reform 328 (+323) Lib Dem 82 (+10) Labour 81 (-330) Conservative 50 (-71) SNP 44 (+35) Green 28 (+24) Plaid Cymru 10 (+6) Others 8 (+3) Speaker 1 Ref majority 6 Changes w/ GE2024
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GE2029 projection as at 19/01/2026 Reform UK 345 (+340) Lib Dem 78 (+6) Green 76 (+72) Conservative 50 (-71) SNP 41 (+32) Labour 21 (-390) Others 10 (+4) Plaid Cymru 10 (+6) Speaker 1 Reform majority of 40 Changes w/ GE2024
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GE2029 forecast based on the latest week of GB polls before Xmas and latest Wales and Scotland polls: Reform UK 357 (+352) Lib Dem 78 (+6) Labour 51 (-361) Conservative 44 (-77) SNP 44 (+35) Green 39 (+35) Others 13 (+6) Plaid Cymru 6 (+2) NI 18 Reform maj. of 62 Chgs w/ GE24
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I ran forecasts on the weekly polling averages from 08/05/2025 until 10/07/2025 to give some insights, and attached is a chart showing party standings at each forecast:
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GE2029 Nowcast, 10/07/2025 Reform UK 283 (+278) Labour 183 (-228) Liberal Democrats 75 (+3) SNP 36 (+27) Conservative 35 (-86) Others 10 (+5) Plaid Cymru 6 (+2) Green 3 (-1) Speaker 1 Northern Ireland 18 Reform UK short of majority by 43 Changes w/ GE2024
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New logo who dis
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General Election GE2029 nowcast projection as at 09/05/2025 Reform UK 298 (+293) Labour 153 (-258) Liberal Democrat 78 (+6) Conservative 42 (-79) SNP 37 (+28) Independents 11 (+5) Plaid Cymru 7 (+3) Green 5 (+1) Speaker 1 NI 18 Reform UK 28 short of majority Changes w/ GE2024
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