actuary | prediction market research & analytics | co-founder @Kalshinomics | xc mtb racer
colorado
Joined February 2025
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46M contracts traded on 49ers–Rams
I broke down the taker flow and added a new chart tracking prices after large sweeps to see which takers got the better of the trade
both charts and the full breakdown on Resolution Pending
resolutionpending.substack.c…
I turned off all my market-making ops on these AI market share markets because the activity looked suspicious
can’t confirm it’s the same activity, but the timing is interesting
xitter.cf/NathanMeininger/status…
aaron retweeted
The PM Pulse 071
• Utah's attorney general sues @Kalshi and SIG
• @Polymarket DeFi waives fees
• @Kalshi x @dillonbrooks24
• @Kalshi skips CFB player props
• @cryptocom x @river_markets
• Trader Notes: @probaaron breaks down @Kalshi’s press secretary market
getting to build this with @andrewcourt1 and meet so many people in the process made this well worth doing
on to new projects!
xitter.cf/Kalshinomics/status/21…
We’ve decided to wind down Kalshinomics as we focus on other projects
We had fun building tools we wanted to use ourselves as traders. Thanks to everyone who used the site, shared our work, or sent feedback
For commercial inquiries: [email protected]
aaron retweeted
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” xitter.cf/i/trending/21121889132…
seeing this in a packed theater was so much fun
Nathan Fielder is one of a kind
xitter.cf/nathanfielder/status/2…
newsworthy PM stories need a higher bar. this cites three trades: $19, $74, and $80..
if there's evidence of an administration insider, sure investigate, but PMs have had far bigger problems
for the record, I had no part in these <$100 trades on Zacharia!
Exclusive: Prediction market Kalshi has launched an investigation into a series of suspicious trades on their platform about the selection of President Trump’s new White House press secretary. on.wsj.com/4zpIFEO
best politics market win to date
xitter.cf/tylerpager/status/2108…
SCOOP: Katie Zacharia Picked as the New White House Press Secretary
w/ @Haleaziz
nytimes.com/2026/10/09/us/po…
resolution criteria = the “spirit” of the market
at least glad they reimbursed folks here!
xitter.cf/weathershan/status/210…
hey gaeten, we changed our rules after the Taylor Swift market resolved to better capture the spirit of what a new album is. this change followed the typical amendment procedure and was communicated to users on our notices page. the markets for the Drake album use that amended ruleset, but given the confusion, we're reimbursing users. you should receive an email shortly.
Tulsi Gabbard traded all the way up to 41c off this
with all due respect, Benny Johnson is not on my list of trusted trading signals
xitter.cf/bennyjohnson/status/21…
there are now 52 candidates in Trump's next Press Secretary market
no single candidate is even above 20%, and the YES bids across all 52 only add up to ~70%
would love to see Kalshi add an “all other” option to mutually exclusive markets like this
Sturgill Simpson (Johnny Blue Skies) puts on a killer show. Ball Arena absolutely erupted last night
also respect to the two guys in front of us who bought 4 seats to a packed show to dance their ass off
best explanation I’ve read of the Kalshi wash trading allegations
the $5.5k trades look more like subsidy-driven volume than wash trading
makers keep quoting, while fee rebates let faster traders pick off stale prices
real trades ≠ organic demand
xitter.cf/rajivatbarnard/status/…
spoke too soon. timeline is almost entirely CT now and it’s been pretty entertaining
xitter.cf/probaaron/status/21013…
need Kalshi to add Logan Paul to the press secretary market so I can continue negrisking this position
if Tucker Carlson gets a strike, Logan deserves one too
xitter.cf/probaaron/status/21017…
the worst part about Codex resets is that buying one resets your 7-day window for the next reset
I gave in and paid the $80, but would love if it didn’t reset that window, or at least gave you the option
xitter.cf/probaaron/status/21003…
