What I'm watching:
peterattiamd.com/jeffcavalie…
Dear @elonmusk Space is not cold. Do the math and the physics: youtube.com/watch?v=S1umCJfb…
. I have designed a special high-end watch for @PalantirTech and Alex Karp:
finewatchtasting.com/limited…
Please bring it to his attention!
. @chamath you're thinking about data centers wrong. When we have superconducting chips, we'll be able to put today's giant data centers into a light industrial space the size of a small warehouse with 480v mains. If you want to talk with me about this, I'm on top of it.
Seriously, I want to start a company called Hair on Fire, where if you have a problem you're willing to pay to solve NOW, you come and look for a solution provider. Give me examples of a problem you have that you would pay to have solved NOW. The exceptions: fundraising and marketing.
Seriously, I want to start a company called Hair on Fire. If you have a problem that NEEDS to be handled ASAP, say what it is or DM me. Anything but fundraising/marketing.
By some counts, AI agents already outnumber humans online. We should prepare for what comes next:
redshiftlabs.io/agentic-econ…
@davidlee @pmarca @saranormous @shaunmmaguire @dwarkesh_sp @thsottiaux @JeffDean @avc @PalmerLuckey @patrick_oshag @patrickc @astroteller @thomaspower @dinisguarda @deedydas @CathieDWood
Metaculus predictions on the midterm elections:
metaculus.com/midterms-2026/
I'm serious. Tell me what your hair is on fire about and let's get your problem solved. Hair on fire only.
I think I should start a company called HOF. If you're hair is on fire about anything, we'll solve it for you. Urgent requests only. I'd be cash-flow positive from day one.
Let's try it: what is your hair on fire about and what do you need done immediately?
Side hustle: Just launched a new website to help people learn about high-end watches, looking for partners:
finewatchtasting.com
Please share with your friends who have exited!
ourworldindata.org/data-insi…
Energy generated per person in the UK has fallen by 1/3 in the last 20 years. That should save the climate.
How to find people who know NOTHING about climate and very little about anything else: search x.com for the phrase "stable climate." That's it. You'll get a complete list.
Example:
Jane Fonda: “We can’t have a stable democracy with an unstable climate and we can’t have a stable climate unless we have a democracy.”
It's a fantastic Dunning-Kruger test.
Science is broken.
Peer-reviewed research is a disaster. It's a $10 billion industry with bad incentives and terrible results. The majority of published research is wrong. If you want to do science right, you need better data.
LLMs ingest tons of wrong information and spew it out with certainty, creating a circular content economy that leads to model collapse.
I believe the ONLY way to fix it is not with programming and training, but with an open, two-sided market mechanism where you make money if you're right and you lose money if you're wrong. It's not a prediction market, it's a validation market. Send me a DM and I'll send you my deck.
@jensenhuang @peterthiel @TimDraper @bgurley @BillAckman @samrags_ @shaunmmaguire @patrickc @collison @elonmusk @natolambert @dwarkesh_sp @xdotli @PalmerLuckey @usv @jason @ErikVoorhees @CompleteSkeptic @ericweinstein @BretWeinstein @deedydas @EMostaque @JulianAssange @avc @pmarca @SpaceXSI @eladgil @natfriedman @naval @garrytan @balajis @zoink @lachygroom @pmarca @DavidSacks @cyantist @gokulr @jonoringer @scottbelsky @Jason @paulg @sama @shl @HarryStebbings @eriktorenberg
How to not lose all your money after your liquidity event:
derekpedia.com/how-to-blow-a…
@shdu11546816
David Siegel retweeted
SpaceX millionaires 4,000 x $1mil , 400 x $100 mil
Every employee who joined before the first succesful launch made (unless they sold early) more than $100 million.
SpaceX lists June 12 at ~$1.75T.
Work backward from the cap table. At $1.75T, clearing $100M takes ~0.0057% of the company.
- 2002–2008, first ~500 in: joined at a ~$50M company. Held to $1.75T = a 17,000x. The core of the club — maybe 150–250 left holding
- September 2008, SpaceX has first successful launch
- 2010–2016: joined at $1B–$10B. Needs a senior grant — directors, principal engineers, early Starlink. ~100–200
- C-suite + board: Shotwell, Johnsen past $1B. A layer of SVPs below them clears $100M on equity, not salary. ~20–40
- Post-2016: joined at $20B–$350B. To hit $100M you'd have needed ~0.4% of the company. Impossible for an employee. This is the millionaire tier — almost none reach $100M
The tally:
~400–500 at $100M+
A few dozen above $500M
A handful of billionaires past Musk
Same building. Same mission. Two orders of magnitude apart — set entirely by what year you walked in.
Early isn't a strategy. It's a date stamp.



