billions will thrive robot inference @hf0, ex-quant 2x
SF | Montreal
Joined August 2025
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This is already happening and being traded on, startups that didn’t check the colo title and have sunk costs for the DCs selling off to get out of a bad position. Bad clusters with a domino effect on all their other clusters
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After working on Dream-1 for the last 4 months, here's my take:
LLMs vs WAMs isn't the right framing. A model like Dream-1 will soon be a tool call for LLMs, and that gets more feasible as LLMs inevitably get faster and cheaper.
Two things we didn't put in the blog post🧵👇
Today, Dream Labs is coming out of stealth with Dream-1, a robot foundation model that controls bimanual robots it has never seen, on tasks it was never shown, in places it has never been, from $3/hour.
Dream API is live for everyone, today. 🧵
Sick launch event
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
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We’ve developed the world’s most complete megakernel framework. It can perform entire training runs, serve inference, play video games, and even do all three simultaneously in a single kernel.
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Another takeaway after three years of building a company is that the returns to just "being a good person", and not acting transactionally, are higher than I expected.
There are so many transactional, boring, and at times immoral people in the tech industry that if you act with sustained warmth, authenticity, humor, and integrity, great gifts will be laid before you. White pill.
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I don’t think you should start a robotics company unless you’re capable of building the entire robot yourself, if you had to
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Yesterday, @OrnnExchange's B200 and B300 indexes reached a new all-time high prices, with the B200 hitting $8.54/GPU-hour.
It is clear that today's market is lacking GPU capacity, and that the companies building deploying capacity are looking to improve their credit. In the past trading week as the B200 rental price increased by 12.9%, $CRWV fell by 25.2%.
Why does $CRWV move inversely to rising compute prices as a neocloud? 98% of Coreweave's Q2 revenue came from committed contracts, 72% from three customers, and most of its $104B backlog is recognized after mid-2028.
CoreWeave's backlog is locked at fixed prices. These higher market rates matter for new contracts they sign, so the question is where rental rates end up when their contracts roll off.
Ornn's index tracks transacted prices in order to capture what buyers are actually willing to pay for on-demand GPU rentals, real signal for tracking the value of compute.
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Lot of this sort of thing going on rn and eventually the hammer is gonna drop really hard
This evening I sat across from the CEO of a so-called trading neo lab with over $1B val. He told me their models—built on best-in-class RL environments and online learning algorithms—have produced exceptional pnl and sharpe ratios.
I later learned that the company is, in fact, a data broker LARPing as a frontier lab. Its actual edge is trading stocks and options on insider information of model releases and synthetic-data acquisitions.
It appears I have once again materially underestimated the absurdity of this industry.
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“Coreweave is fcked”
“Yeah dude they’re done I called it”
“Have you looked at their balance sheet?”
“No have you?”
“No”
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Most interesting takeaway from the first Defense Bio hackathon:
Biotech startups are selling to the Department of War to get expedited approvals because it’s faster than the traditional FDA clinical trial path
there are some network effects to inference/compute where if you subsidize enough its more efficient for you to do so so your competitors have to subside more than you for the same growth
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One sentence macro model: On the way out the door, every farmer's wife says to every farmer, "the weather's looking bad so don't buy as much at the market this week, but also don't sell our crops for less than the usual price."
